eyewall

I am waiting to see if any discretes pop off the lee trough before working back toward the Triangle

I am high point and it is full sun here. Cleared just west of Mebane.

I plan on headed out toward the Triad and points west to see if I can catch some discretes before upscale growth occurs.

He then said it may be due to moth/insect damage.

A consensus of model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.

consensus of model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.

A couple of others (I wish the lighting was a bit better):

I will be ready!

Nothing like a Plains looking updraft in North Carolina. This was yesterday evening looking northwest from Raleigh.

Smoky this morning:

12/4/2

The way the sun shined through this morning shower was interesting as well:

Still getting these passing showers once in awhile in Raleigh:

Looking more annular in the latest frames

Killington is going through at least Memorial Day

I have to leave town for work so this will verify and then some. There was an ENH upgrade this morning.

It is impossible to do any worse than this previous winter, literally. Whatever we get will likely be better :).

This is what I observed with the embedded HP supercell that developed near Lake Gaston yesterday:

It is also because I am on a trip to El Salvador and this was the one I needed to see them in NC.

Yep we always get the right setup when it is too late.

Yeah apparently it was not a decision made by the local office but higher up.

This is one more from yesterday with the first wall cloud I saw near Apex at 3:47pm or so. You can make out the Shearon Harris cooling tower below it (it is actually probably quite a distance from the actual base of the cloud in this shot):

A wall cloud over Cary followed by a shelf over Raleigh. Got to love a little marginal magic:

I only wish I could get down there for it

I chased the lead supercell that dropped tennis ball sized hail and held on much longer than anyone thought it could. We caught this storm west of Red House, VA and stayed with it until we were east of Worsham. It started to cluster and line out but apparently if we stayed with it a bit longer we would have seen some dinner plates. None the less we saw some great classic supercell structure and various iterations of its wall cloud. Finally, a shelf cloud as the outflow took over.