eyewall

NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km) NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest) GFS (Global Forecast System) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only) GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble) EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics) Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska) Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble) The Euro is also in there

18z GFS is a whiff here:

It had South Carolina plates so that explains a lot.

Yeah it didn't cave in but a full 2ft wide spiderweb

Well we didn't get back to Raleigh as planned as shortly into the trip a piece of ice on I-95 flew off someone's car and right into my windshield smashing it. Nobody could help me today because nobody showed up for work anywhere so I am stuck here until tomorrow to get it fixed and hopefully get home eventually.

Smoking cirrus in Raleigh on the 18z GFS.

The setup is classic Miller A for this one with a more east based airmass to work with so I think the Miller B risk is low.

GFS is a very slight tick west but not really indicative of anything yet. It is also a bit more intense this run.

It was a fun storm to experience for sure. Time for me to head back to Raleigh. Hopefully we get one solid snow there before the season ends so I don't have to go anywhere lol.

Way too early for this. First call: High shear low cape thunderstorm event

WRAL busted hard in this event. They definitely pretty much took the Euro's ice totals verbatim when they initially called for up to an inch of ice. They are a shell of their former selves.

yes. I am in Sterling right now.

Looks like it trying to go back to snow here right now.

The 18z Sounding where I am

yep still heavy sleet.

9 times out of 10 I find that ZR underperforms.

5 inches of snow and now at least 2 inches of sleet so far here in Sterling, VA. It is a true sleet bomb and still going.

Thank you! I had a few minutes to sneak out of work and lucky to grab it. I am thankful for an AWD vehicle.

Thank you! It hit me when I pointed down and I was like oh yeah I need to get this! Also Dulles is reporting heavy snow and I am not far from there and seeing nothing but sleet.

The scene this morning from Herndon (had to get LAANC clearance)

I was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow.

Got to test my forester in the snow and sleet and it handled like a champ. I had to go down the road to get some aerial shots to where I wasn't too close to the airport.

Sleet is definitely winning out in Sterling, VA

The scene here in Sterling where people probably shoot up behind the hotel