eyewall

From RAH: All of the above factors combined with bitterly cold and dry air continuously being drawn south into the Carolinas from the Arctic high moving east from the Great Lakes into Upstate NY are likely to result in a moisture-laden and potentially long lasting winter storm across central NC from Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will move in from the west on Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially on the lighter side initially, with the heaviest likely on Saturday night and early Sunday, tapering off from west to east sometime Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is still uncertainty on timing with the 12z ECMWF a bit slower compared to the GFS. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean QPF is generally in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, and with very cold air firmly entrenched at the surface, all of it is likely to be frozen across central NC, whether that be snow or ice. The main question that has to be answered is how strong the push of warmer air is several thousand feet above the surface, which almost always occurs in these setups across central NC. The latest GFS is farther south with the 850 mb front and thus depicts more snow compared to the ECMWF, but this has been going back and forth, and their ensemble guidance has generally been a bit warmer/less bullish with snowfall. So an all snow event across the entire region is very unlikely, but the most favored area for that climatologically would be along and north of the I-85 corridor. This is where NBM probabilities for 6+ inches of snowfall are in the 60-80% range. Meanwhile NBM probabilities of 0.25+ inches of freezing rain are in the 60-80% range across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern Coastal Plain. Significant accumulations of sleet will also be possible between where the highest freezing rain and snow amounts are. In addition to major travel issues, significant tree damage and power outages may occur especially where the highest ice accumulations occur. While details on specific amounts are still uncertain, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm across central NC, and it is imperative to continue staying tuned for the latest updates as the forecast is likely to change.

It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol.

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

My initial thoughts

I need to order some more Maalox. Anyway the Euro is still a big initial thump of snow even if we do go to ice. I agree this scenario can't be ruled out.

I can't disagree with PackGrad05. Mixed P is still very much a possibility. With that said we also don't want this to slide much farther south to where the cutoff becomes a concern either.

It is the worst feeling riding the line here in Raleigh. All I am hoping for is to hit 6 inches of snow. I know mixing is inevitable but that is what I am hoping for.

LOL I will be able to post my photos by June.

These model runs are actually scary:

spaceweatherlive has the Kp down to 6 now. It was very frustrating because everything was there except the Bz. Even down here the sky would have lit up had that been negative.

Yeah I full expect some taint in central NC from that at this point but I will be happy with a warning level snow even if that does occur.

Yep it sure is although with a stronger parent high than the GFS. It is true CAD is never handled well on the globals.

Got to add this one:

You can see the solid high position as the heaviest rates occur in NC

The NC weenie run

A lot will depend on how shallow the airmass is of course with the CAD in place. What we have going for us is the fact that there will be a parent high to begin with. The players are there for sure in looking at the models but as always we need everything to line up perfectly for blockbuster snows. We will see how this plays out. Even if there is some mixing I always remind people that 1/25/00 started off with many hours of rain before the massive snowfall.

Check please:

It was probably way early to start this thread but it is surprising to see RAH on board this early.

Video: https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1ATdxzDKrc/

A nice teaser in north Durham and near Falls Lake but the cold was too late for it to be a bigger hit:

I went from Durham to falls lake where there was some accumulation but since Raleigh now has Fayetteville's climate, nothing stuck in town.

Ground whitening on the north side of Durham where I am now

Mostly snow in Durham