eyewall

Another aerial photo dump from yesterday:

YouTube kind of screwed up the quality but:

I had to chase today up to the NC mountains as they are in quite an upslope event today into the weekend. Some will see over a foot before it is over. Felt like my time in VT up there today. Hope there is a big turnaround for everyone this season at some point.

Rain and sleet in Raleigh with an occasional flake

This isn't the best photo composition wise but it shows the conditions as a heavier burst rolled through outside of Banner Elk. This is a wide angle lens too.

A pair of snow caked tree drone shots from off the road up Beech (my GoPro SD card corrupted unfortunately as a side note):

This is from the road up to Beech Mountain. I only wish I could stay for the whole event. I am happy I got to see it for sure. This is a cell grab. Aerials and video coming after I get back to Raleigh.

So you're telling me there's a chance: Friday Night A slight chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upslope is a mesoscale feature so can't just go with every slight tick on the models. It is very likely it will snow either way.

As it stands now I will probably head to Banner Elk for tomorrow or that vicinity.

Another x flare happened this evening but I am not sure from which sunspot.

That is probably correct.

I only wish I could get to Mammoth Lakes right now. Down here in NC I am planning on catching the uplsope snow in the mountains after the cutter but not to ski of course.

I am thinking of coming up Friday for it.

I think we all need a trip to Mammoth Lakes, CA This Afternoon Snow before 4pm, then snow showers after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 31 to 37 inches possible. Tonight Snow before 10pm, then snow showers likely between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 24. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Tuesday Snow before 7am, then snow showers between 7am and 10am, then snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 28. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

We can certainly do that down here. I can provide the sunscreen. Even for us this is ridiculous. I was going to come up later this winter but I may re-think that.

We are going to be fast approaching "sun angle and soil temp" season by the time there is even a remote chance it feels like. Being completely blanked on the season is on the table.

Sure if the parent high is stronger and locks in over southern Ontario/Quebec and there is a sufficient cold air feed. This one looks transient for now though.

It almost looked like a shift toward cutter to me on the 6z GFS. Obviously the hybrid CAD wedge results in an ice event for the western Piedmont/Foothills but this is not what we want to see. Soon enough we will talking about a severe risk (which honestly on the wedge boundaries could already occur in this scenario).

This winter feels like the ghost of 2011-2012 in some ways but we shall see.

I am checking into hotel rooms in GSO.

I posted in the wrong one originally but here is how the New Year is starting off this work week in Raleigh:

A foggy morning here in Raleigh:

This is a long duration torch too. This is definitely painful. I will be back afterwards likely pulling up a chair in the sanitarium.

Right now it would seem we are looking to the 8th-12th range at a minimum for any hope.