sbnwx85

Might be a long couple of days. At least temperatures are mild.

Just experienced what had to be a 60+ mph gust. Twigs and small branches hovering above the ground. Had to take cover in the garage for a half a minute. Exhilarating!

Power just went out at my mom’s house in Elkhart, IN. Safe to say there have been some 50+ mph gusts in the last couple hours.

IWX says upgrade to High Wind Warning something to monitor. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Main concern in long term will be frontal passage on Sat and associated rain/wind. Very dynamic system anticipated over the Great Lakes given coupled upper jets and increasingly negative tilt to mid/upper trough. Very deep PV anomaly is noted with surface cyclogenesis down to roughly 985mb by the time it reaches Lake Superior. Corresponding low level adjustments lead to 60-70kt LLJ over our CWA much of the day. True mixing depths and efficiency are always questionable in a WAA regime but most forecast soundings suggest mixing into at least 40 kt winds Sat morning. Greater concern will be immediately behind the front Sat afternoon with dry air advection and some potential to mix into 50 kts. Feel confident in at least advisory criteria gusts of 45 mph Sat. Some concern we could reach warning criteria of 60 mph along and immediately behind the front given very impressive wind profile just above ground level (50 kts at 925mb). However, warning criteria events are rare for our area and require near-perfect alignment of ingredients. One negative factor is that isentropic analysis indicates winds largely parallel to the isobars which may limit a more abrupt/efficient downward momentum surge behind the front. Soundings are also fairly stable and not expecting any thunder. Strongest gradient is also in prefrontal segment in WAA regime with a sharp drop in gradient strength behind the front later Sat. Given these factors decided to just go with a high-end advisory. Later shifts may upgrade to a warning if signals become stronger.

Christmas tree FTW

Pretty sure I’m seeing mosquitoes on my walk lol

I went back and looked...sure enough last November was cooler than average. The beginning of the month had a few nice, sunny days which is probably what I'm remembering. I also remember leaves still being on the trees in mid-November while snow was falling...probably leading me to believe the beginning of the month was warm.

So anyway, going off memory, it seems the last three Novembers have started off pretty warm during these three consecutive La Nina's. If this winter also follows suit the best hope for big snows IMBY would be a lake-effect event in December with synoptic snows in February.

69 (nice) degrees in South Bend. Daily records for this week are well into the 70's, so barring overachieving temps I don't think we'll hit any records. But this is a memorable stretch of beautiful weather for this time of year.

I'm going to my cousin's wedding tomorrow. It's an outdoor ceremony and all year we were preparing to need coats and/or raingear. They picked one heckuva weekend. Love, temps in the 70's and an open bar. What more can you ask for?

I work 2nd shift at a TV news station, so a storm that begins in the late afternoon or early evening. Preparations for the storm dominate headlines all evening and it starts just as the 4, 5 and 6 newscasts begin. The worst hits after I get home and we end up with 20+ inches with 40 mph winds and thundersnow. My co-workers need to pick me up to get into work the next day because I can't get out of the apartment complex. All this as lake-effect wraps around the backside the following day dropping another 6-12 inches. I've experienced parts of these scenarios during a storm, but not all at once. Although, I've always been able to get myself into work. I'd also love to experience a monster lake-effect event. I grew up in Northern Indiana, but just outside the best lake belts. I'd love to get in on a 30+ lake effect storm one day. I was in nearby Elkhart for this storm in 2011 and only get a measly 8 inches. https://www.weather.gov/iwx/20110108_les

The "2nd severe weather season" is certainly upon us. Potential could be there next week. So far, SPC waiting for consistency among the models.

Saw some flakes mixing in before bed last night and again this afternoon on the way to work. Nothing accumulated in my immediate area, but a county east had anywhere from a dusting to 3 inches.

Think I’ll call it a night. I’m not holding my breath on getting snow. Too close to the lake this time around. If only it were 10 degrees colder.

Video from Fort Wayne tv station. Saw a 3.8 inch report in Whitley County, IN, too. And some photos in Syracuse, IN

The main show is slowly drifting south. Still all rain here.

11,000 NIPSCO customer without power across Northern Indiana. https://www.nipsco.com/outages/power-outages

I think most areas switched back to rain for now except for near Fort Wayne and points south (!) where it appears to be snowing. But where ever the dominate snow band sets up overnight will create a mess if it's stationary for even 3 or 4 hours. I want to believe in the HRRR because it bullseyes me the last four runs.

This is going to be a problem: At 5:45 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. TREE LIMB 6-12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.40 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER FLICKERING FROM WIND AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N Tippecanoe Lake [Kosciusko Co, IN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.00 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER IS FLICKERING FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

First WWA of the season! Some areas in the CWA already with close to an inch of snow. Still measuring rain IMBY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Northern Indiana 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 INZ005-006-008-014-017-024-104-116-216-MIZ078-079-180500- /O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.221017T2121Z-221018T0500Z/ Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Whitley-Wabash- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko- Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Wabash, North Manchester, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow at times mixed with rain. Additional snow accumulations of up to three inches. Localized amounts up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Slow down and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Heaviest snow bands may end up east of my locale based on recent trends. Elkhart County looks to be the bullseye.

HRRR likely overdoing lake-effect like usual. But IWX issues statement for tonight:

Several inches of heavy wet snow on trees with leaves really, really does a lot of damage.

Lock it in. mode.

Hoping for heavy snow tonight followed by 70 this weekend. Autumn rollercoaster is at full power.