sbnwx85

Let's goooo Mesoscale Discussion 1346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...eastern IL and western/northern IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 432...434... Valid 181744Z - 181945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 432, 434 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado and damaging wind potential should increase into late afternoon amid multiple bands of thunderstorms spreading east-northeast from Illinois into Indiana. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Primary midday tornado potential has been prominent near the immediate MCV/surface cyclone in west-central IL, including a damaging tornado in Morgan County, IL during the past hour. Enhanced surface vorticity within this persistent pocket of lower-topped storms should continue to pose a tornado threat across central IL. An expanding arc of broken to linear convection into east-central IL should have increasing tornado/damaging wind potential as it spreads into IN through late afternoon. Area VWPs have been a bit subdued on 0-1 km shear, but the PAH/VWX VWPs has gradually strengthened and this should spread north-northeast across the Wabash Valley. Tornado potential may be relatively maximized with 1) discrete, sustained supercells on the southern portion of the broader convective band and 2) in the more bent-back arc across northeast IL/northern IN with hybrid supercell/QLCS mesovortices.

Nice probs on the new Tornado Watch.

Correlation coefficient shows it’s on the ground. Looks like it may have clipped the west side of Jacksonville before going toward the airport.

Three tornado warnings before noon across Central Illinois. I think it might be one of those days.

Mesoscale Discussion 1345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...eastern IL...western/northern IN...far southwest Lower MI Concerning...Tornado Watch 432... Valid 181557Z - 181800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 432 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase substantially through mid-afternoon as an arc of storms intensifies to the east-northeast from central Illinois. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail will remain possible. Downstream tornado watch issuance is anticipated to the northeast of Ww 432. DISCUSSION...While the primary surface cyclone and attendant MCV are centered near the northeast MO/west-central IL border area, a downstream arc of increasing deep convection is expected to strengthen across central IL. With mid 70s surface dew points common across southern IL/IN, a pronounced MLCAPE gradient is setting up from south to north. A compact belt of strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies in the LSX VWP, recently sampled by the ILX VWP as well, should support a broken band of supercells within this leading arc as it spreads northeast. The potential for tornadoes has increased and a 10 percent tornado probability will be added in the 1630Z D1 Outlook. The LSX VWP also indicates low-level SRH diminishing behind this leading arc, but some tornado threat should linger near the immediate MCV/surface low. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

Tornado Watch coming for much of Central and Southern Illinois.

Yeah, 12z HRRR looks a little better but still messy. Hopefully we avoid too much crapvection before the main line moves through. Optimistically… I can hope whatever pops ahead of the line is rotating and interacting with the leftover boundaries from the storms that just came through here.

Watch for some strong winds behind the line of storms today, particularly around the mesolow.

00z NAM and HRRR have explosive storm development just to my southwest around 21z tomorrow. Shades of 3/30/25 which produced 60-70 mph gusts and small tornadoes across N. Indiana and S. Michigan. The tree damage was significant across the area… and that was without leaves on the trees.

Minnesota folks cashing in. Happy for you guys. Better than smoke.

I've started a thread for the week:

A nice multi-day setup across the region. Currently, a Tornado Watch is up for much of Minnesota. But most of us are focused on the 18th. There is good potential for a severe complex of storms to plow through the most populated areas of our subforum. ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes, and over a small part of the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will move from the central Plains across the mid to upper MS Valley, with a lead wave moving from MO into Lower MI. A surface low is expected from eastern IA into lower MI during the day, with a trough extending southwestward across IL, MO, and OK. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of this main front with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints. To the east, a weak surface trough is forecast to develop over the Mid Atlantic, where strong heating will lead to an unstable air mass beneath modest southwest flow aloft around western Atlantic high. ...MI southwestward into OK... Scattered storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning from IA into MO and northeast OK, with remnant MCS activity. It appears the greatest ascent will move across northern areas coincident with the shortwave trough, from northern IL into lower MI. Here, shear profiles will likely support supercells, including hail and perhaps tornado threat. Farther south, stronger instability and PWAT will exist along the front but with weaker shear. Substantial convection is expected with areas of damaging winds likely. Some of these storms may move south to southwest due to propagation. Given steep midlevel lapse rates, sporadic hail may occur as well.

Day 5 slight risk for much of us.

Currently 72/66 at SBN but it feels much swampier than that. Maybe the recent dry dew points make it seem muggier.

Storms are firing overhead. Just some rain and a rumble of thunder at work. It looks like I missed out on the goods at home. Someone mPing'd pea-sized hail by my house.

Mid-60s and overcast. Best tranquil weather. No sweating and no sun in your eyes. Obviously, the best overall weather is a blizzard in winter and a 90+ mph downburst in summer.

Appears to be wafting this way https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=cgl&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

That’s a good point, I think. Maybe to add to that, I’m not sure what farmers in Central Illinois are doing but there have been about four springtime “dust storms” over the last decade due to wind picking dirt while farmers are out in the field. And they’ve caused major problems for drivers on the interstates.

Nice, steady rain here. Good for the garden.

We have a reporter working on a story today about the crops ruined by the dust storm across portions of North Central Indiana. Soybeans were already planted and now farmers are re-planting this week.

Ope.

It's wonderful.

It’s wild tracking the correlation coefficient about 2 miles wide wobbling like the eye of a hurricane.

Yea big dud here. Excited for the miss south tomorrow.