Jump to content

Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    21,976

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Slide that high west by 100 miles and were textbook.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    DCA and EZF stay below freezing at 850 on the 12z GEFS.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Everyone wins.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    There are dozens of images like this in the KU books.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is certainly encouraging.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    100% agree
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Icon is about as tucked as we can afford. Nothing further NW or it's going to be weenie suicide.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    This is probably an NW suburbs event. Closer to I-95 is really walking the fence with this one.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    We're about a week out and I'm still largely suspicious that we even meet climo this winter. If things are holding serve on 12z Friday, then maybe we're onto something. I hope I'm wrong and have to eat crow.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Next 48 hours will be telling
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Offshore 850 temps are much colder this run. Even with an E or ESE wind you're advecting -4 air. You won't have a lot of mixing concerns with that.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    That event was different in several ways. One of it being we had a strengthening low driving east out of the Blue Ridge.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Holy GFS Please make me eat crow.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    When National Geographic runs a 1 hour special on the storm and interviews Barb Watson, you know it was a solid event.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    1996 is the king. End discussion.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Unpopular Opinion: the 2016 storm was an I-95 and west event.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Epic winter.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I hope the entire subforum gets rekt this winter and we both have to eat crow.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    It's all confluence. Look at the placement of the high on the 18z GFS. Stronger and further west. It's much better.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    I don't care what others say, until the southern jet feature is inside the North American RAOB network, wild swings occur. During the Dec 2009 snowstorm, there was a RAOB site (New Orleans?) that was launched late and they didn't get in for the 00z GFS. The result was a dry looking 00z GFS/GEFS that freaked a lot of people out. Thankfully someone here caught it in the NCEP model diagnostic disco (I think it was either you or @WxUSAF). Color us shocked when the 12z GGS/GEFS snapped back to a big storm.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Two rules that have consistently served me well: 1.) Changes in the first event likely impact the second, for better or worse. 2.) Details on the second event typically won't become clear until the next operational run that has RAOB data (00z or 12z). Example: the 2nd Feb 2010 event became clearer 12 hours after the first event had cleared out.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Our team is intrigued as well. In fact, we have a mesonet site and a micronet site going in College Park in an area with less concrete this spring. We'll see what the results are.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    UMD has added a micronet to the Maryland Mesonet for College Park. Early results show a clear UHI.
×
×
  • Create New...