We're also in an El Nino. The D3 QPF forecast is 1.5" to 2.5" for the entire I-95 to US 15 corridor. We've busted high last minute with just about every other rain storm. I don't see how we don't repeat here.
Our soils are quite saturated and it doesn't take much during the winter for flooding to develop. Cold ground and no vegetation means runoff can't be absorbed as efficiently.
I hope it ages poorly and I have to eat a buffet of crow, but I could see DCA, PHL, IAD, and BWI pitching a shutout in the snowfall department after tomorrow.
Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025?