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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    What are you talking about? Strong antecedent high in Quebec is a must for snow in these parts. Too far east and we get southeast winds eating any surface CAD.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    That high is centered much better.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    That warm. Surface freezing line is almost into US 15. Hope @MillvilleWxis right about the Euro thermals being too warm.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Any word on the EPS?
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Slide that high west by 100 miles and were textbook.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    DCA and EZF stay below freezing at 850 on the 12z GEFS.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Everyone wins.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    There are dozens of images like this in the KU books.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is certainly encouraging.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    100% agree
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Icon is about as tucked as we can afford. Nothing further NW or it's going to be weenie suicide.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    This is probably an NW suburbs event. Closer to I-95 is really walking the fence with this one.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    We're about a week out and I'm still largely suspicious that we even meet climo this winter. If things are holding serve on 12z Friday, then maybe we're onto something. I hope I'm wrong and have to eat crow.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Next 48 hours will be telling
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Offshore 850 temps are much colder this run. Even with an E or ESE wind you're advecting -4 air. You won't have a lot of mixing concerns with that.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    That event was different in several ways. One of it being we had a strengthening low driving east out of the Blue Ridge.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Holy GFS Please make me eat crow.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    When National Geographic runs a 1 hour special on the storm and interviews Barb Watson, you know it was a solid event.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    1996 is the king. End discussion.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Unpopular Opinion: the 2016 storm was an I-95 and west event.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Epic winter.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    I hope the entire subforum gets rekt this winter and we both have to eat crow.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    It's all confluence. Look at the placement of the high on the 18z GFS. Stronger and further west. It's much better.
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