Eskimo Joe

Yea it's nice. Falling temps and snow.

Would get a lot of folks to near climo for the season too, IIRC.

Ground temps are below 34 degrees at most locations. This isn't a setup where it's 60 degrees the day before and we're waiting to cool the ground off.

Watch this be that event which juices up and gets colder last minute then the watch is expanded to the next tier of counties SE.

Euro/Euro Ai/GFS would imply low end warning event from I-95 and NW. Maybe we see watches this evening?

Low end warning even N&W I-95

Someone NW of the mix line will do well. Probably going to be a healthy band of frontogenesis that won't show up until tomorrow afternoon on the meso guidance.

3" - 5" then it gets cold again. If we boom, it's 5" - 9", it it busts it's 1" - 3".

If the Euro comes in, maybe. If not, doubt it.

We need redemption then. Forum wide 5" - 9".

M0.2" new snowfall New Windsor, Carroll County.

Where do I sign for the 18z GFS?

Good point. Maybe we wind up with a compromise 2" - 4"?

Yup. Might be the old E/E rule trying to show up again.

Oh, we can all imagine.

New England will rejoice on the GFS. One more juiced up run and we're going to meet climo snowfall for many.

Giggity

Gimme dat cold.

I'll be happy with 2 storms next week, but man the Euro for the 28th is nice!

Euro has a decent shortwave trying to bust south from the arctic around the HR 168 - 174 timeframe. Wonder if that is gunking up anything closer to us?

I'm psyched. We have legit potential for something special.

If it weren't for the snowpack we'd be in the 60s today probably.

KNAK overnight lows during the summer are starting to rival that of DCA and BWI. Annapolis "metro" is expanding pretty quickly.

Paul Kocin spoke at Millersville AMS pre-2011. He said that you should never sleep on an intensifying surface low coming off the Appalachian Mts. They can give you tornadoes in the summer and a surprise snowfall in the winter. 80,000 power outages in 5 hours in Montgomery County, MD. Trees were coming down on police and fire apparatus while they were responding to calls. Roads could not be pre-treated because a small amount of rain fell during the day. That is my benchmark for what a "high impact" storm can deliver in the east coast megalopolis. Jan 26, 2011 is in my Top 5 weather events of all time. I was in Lancaster at the time and remember how powerful the front end thump was impressive. Then we just snizzled all day before the afternoon thump came in hard right at sunset. Looking back at the after action reports in our work library, apparently OPM issued an early departure mandate, but it wasn't enforced my mid level managers. Everyone in DC proper was looking out their window and seeing drizzle thinking it would be a bust. It wasn't until the spouses started calling from home and relayed conditions in the suburbs getting so bad that everyone bailed. By then it was too late. That's why you see language now on PM early departure notices that say "managers must dismiss staff no later than X time".