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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    TOR probably warned off a TDWR
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Hmmm the 1.3 degree velocity scans show some inflow into the Carroll County cell. Might be enough to sustain it?
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Storm over Frederick appears to be gusting out.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Saw that. It's our hail Mary at this point. Just not enough sun and the convection of the Carolinas is probably robbing us somewhat as well.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a complete bust unless something changes right quick.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Sauce?
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the Martinsburg cell is the only show today. Just not enough surface instability.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Temp spiked at home from 70° to 77° in under 20 min, but the convective temp is 89°. We're going to come up short in that arena, if our clouds just broke 2 or 3 hours earlier this would've been a great setup. It's not going to take much.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Keedysville and Clarksville mesonet sites support the clearing in visible satellite. The solar radiation spiking quickly.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Never doubt the CC drop.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    We're staring down another ho hum severe season. It's almost June and we've yet to have a decent event.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Significant downward trend overnight. Looks like a run of the mill event now at best. This is why you wait until the day of to get invested.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Strong convection, especially nocturnal, will often persist long than what the CAMs have. April 26-27, 2011 is a perfect example of this. There were supercells from Alabama that tracked into South Central PA and still dropped tornadoes along the way.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    The Keedysville mesonet site in Washington County, just north of Antietam Battlefield, only gusted to M36 mph just a minute ago. Pretty clear there is a surface inversion developing that is prohibiting the winds aloft from getting to the surface.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Best to wait until 10 am - 12 pm tomorrow. We'll have everything lined up then. For now, I remain cautiously optimistic.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    00z RAOB for IAD coming in: 2200 CAPE and LL lapse rates of -8 c/km. That Culpepper storm is going to sustain for a bit.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Culpepper storm getting a TOR.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Wonder if this line overturns all the instability tonight.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Very impressive wind reports coming out with this line!
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Some impressive wind damage reports coming out of the mountains.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Somewhat interested in tomorrow. The system coming across Missouri, Illinois, and Missouri seems energetic and is producing a decent number of tornadoes. We'll see what the visible satellite imagery tomorrow looks like.
  22. Eskimo Joe
  23. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR seems to be pooling some low level moisture better east of I-81. Good to see.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Flying from Midway to BWI this afternoon through this mess should be fun.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Makes sense. Don't think a 10% is needed, but we could definitely get a 30% wind tomorrow.
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