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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the only chance for rain in the metro is that cluster coming out of West Virginia.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Same. I'm legit worried we get a dry frontal passage. It looks like the CAMs absolutely blew chunks on this entire setup.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Pity meso for DC and points northeast https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1429.html
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like our shot at storms is starting to take shape over Central West Virginia.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    lol...are BWI and DCA going to hit 100° today?
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like upstate PA is the place to be. Euro is pretty dry in these parts for the evening.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    The aggressive CAMs appear to have some sort of Round 1 initiation along I-81 around 3:30 pm. That's my benchmark to see how things are breaking today. If we get to say 4:30 and there's nada, then we can probably expect a benign evening.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR overmixing bias strikes again. It's also too low on the CAPE as well. Looks like a outlier.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch going out to our NW in PA and Ohio?
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC meso-analysis shows respectable mini EML from DC north into southern PA, and also a boundary of DCAPE from I-70 south. This looks like a day where some big cell goes across Parr's Ridge and everyone else waits for the main show after sunset.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like some initiation is starting in SW West Virginia per visible satellite.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    The latest SPC meson analysis definitely shows a weak EML, with mid level lapse rates trying to touch 7°c/km, plenty of DCAPE, and Total Totals are already pushing 50 near DC. But there's just no real shear to move things along. The morning balloon out of IAD has a convective temp of 94°, and mid level lapse rates of 7.2c/km. All in all, probably enough for several rounds of thunderstorms regionwide today, perhaps a few decent updrafts. it wouldn't shock me if SPC introduced a 30% wind in the area, but I would argue that would be from DC and points north where there's slightly better upper level support. I'd gladly take the rain though. Our mesonet stations show the 2" and 5" soil moisture values are crispy. EDIT: RNK and PIT soundings show a bit of an EML too.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    LOL
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Complete whiff?
  15. Eskimo Joe
    89 here.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Yea this is looking like more and more of a bust in the severe department. Too many things getting mis-timed.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR, while at range, is an absolute snooze fest for severe across the board. We get multiple rounds of strong showers after some early crapvection ruins the afternoon potential. The upside is that we all get at least a half inch of much needed rain.
  18. Eskimo Joe
  19. Eskimo Joe
    That nado cast goes 15% over DC -> Baltimore tomorrow. . . .
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Split the difference, put an ENH with a 30% wind and 5% TOR on the SWODY1 tomorrow and see how it plays out.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    That seems. . . .aggressive. While it was accurate for the 5% TOR over DC, it missed the other 4 areas it forecast for tornadoes. As a result, it ended up with a 20% accuracy rate nationally.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    We'd need everything to come together perfectly tomorrow for that. I'm more worried now about debris clouds from the midwest just holding us in the mid 80s tomorrow and we don't event get any storms at all.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    GFS appears to have lost the EML plume. 12z NAM is pretty meh for severe weather chances. Looks like a standard Slight Risk day might be shaping up.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    People probably worried about a derecho.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Just like that everything falls apart. Lol.
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