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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    ^looks like it's been nudged back up a bit.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Reed Timmer says a lot of things.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Euro on an island. Yea I smell bust.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    4"+ and were good.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    https://twitter.com/NWSMARFC/status/1820893268374323271?t=WoWyu9R0mhEGqlDhfZAzog&s=19
  6. Eskimo Joe
    I think we get a Mod risk for rainfall Friday.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    For lolz, the 12z NAMNest appears to choose violence for everyone starting Friday.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Yesterday had the 5"+ contour from I-95 east: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/qpf/display_maps.php?prodtype=issued&proddate=08/05/2024&prodtime=00&allsent=no&imagetype=color&actualprods=d15,d17
  9. Eskimo Joe
    2" PWATs extend all the way to Buffalo on the 12z NAM. That's a pretty intense river.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Nearly 3" PWATs across the entire area per the 12z NAM. Someone gets soaked.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Wow 12z NAM is a firehose into Mason-Dixon
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Wow congrats terrain + tropical moisture
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. There was a decent 5" - 7" painted across a decent chunk Maryland yesterday.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    WPC appears to have really knocked back the rainfall for this week. General 2" - 4", some 5"+ from Baltimore NE.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    ^Got these for the Euro?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    GFS on an island now as the driest model.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting how there are no "misses" on the 18z GEFS. Confidence definitely going up.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Second. Let @WxWatcher007 have the honors.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Someone is going to get wet in these parts. That's for sure. The PWATs, front, and rich moisture coming off the Atlantic will not be denied.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Indeed. Maybe a signal for "too much too fast" event?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I've found it wise to always go with the guidance that shows the most heart break...keeps your expectations low.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    It seems that over the past couple of runs, the operational GEM, ICON, and GFS all have this precip void over DC Metro.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    GFS appears to be the driest of the guidance right now.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS appears to be 1" - 3" across the area. Small area of 4" amounts in NE Maryland according to College of DuPage website.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    If you take a look at the 850 moisture transport map on the SPC mesoanalysis, there's a huge fetch of Atlantic and Caribbean moisture coming into the Carolinas. Really impressive to watch.
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