Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Split the difference, put an ENH with a 30% wind and 5% TOR on the SWODY1 tomorrow and see how it plays out.
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That seems. . . .aggressive. While it was accurate for the 5% TOR over DC, it missed the other 4 areas it forecast for tornadoes. As a result, it ended up with a 20% accuracy rate nationally.
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We'd need everything to come together perfectly tomorrow for that. I'm more worried now about debris clouds from the midwest just holding us in the mid 80s tomorrow and we don't event get any storms at all.
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GFS appears to have lost the EML plume. 12z NAM is pretty meh for severe weather chances. Looks like a standard Slight Risk day might be shaping up.
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People probably worried about a derecho.
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Just like that everything falls apart. Lol.
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Imagine if we got a redux of winter 2010-2011. I'd sign in a skinny minute.
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18z GFS appears to advect a piece of an EML directly across us underneath a belt of 75 kt winds. That, plus some better timing, would lead to a solid severe weather day in these parts. Still, we're over two days away and a lot can go wrong. Additionally, today's 12z and 18z operational GFS develop a surface low in the lee of the Appalachian Mts. This combined with the other features I just mention, could offset the normal mesoscale issues that plague our severe weather chances in this part.
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Wednesday has potential
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Wednesday could be a decent ENH day if the timing works out. The dynamics aren't too bad and there will be a respectable amount of surface instability.
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Agreed. As far as a late June day in DC goes, this is going to be nice.
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That's not rotation, it's a collapse of the updraft resulting in a modest downburst.
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College Park and Baltimore Inner Harbor also at or above 90.
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IAD has really gotten warm in the past decade. Really shows how much the UHI has expanded west.
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Westminster hit 102. We likely turn it up a notch tomorrow.
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You know it's a warm day when Camp David hits the 90s.
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My parents house is too old for AC.....
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Back in Philly for the weekend helping my mom. It's 99° in the shade in Roxborough. Had a storm graze us juuuust enough to spike the humidity to Florida levels.
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Waldorf mesonet site hit 99°.
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Double lol...12z GFS 2m temps are 100+ from BWI down the EZF. Absolute torch Sunday.
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lol...GFS tries to push +26 air over everyone again on Wednesday. Would be an utter torch.
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12z GFS has 23 degree air at 850 on Saturday, but Sunday it really ups the ante regionwide. Near 25 degree airmass moves over. If there isn't convection to cut out the sun, it's entirely BWI, DCA, and IAD all hit 100.
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Cool. We'll be 45 and rain instead of 52 and rain. Baby steps!
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That place is in a league of it's own.
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