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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Bethesda, MD from this AM round of storms:
  2. Eskimo Joe
    40% chance of a WW: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0294.html
  3. Eskimo Joe
    CAMS FTW...looks like that cluster near Haymarket may get warned here shortly. Nice velocities on the 0.5° BV.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Part of me was hoping for an 18z RAOB out of IAD or PITT given the setup for potentially large hailers, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Thick cloud cover and this crapvection rolling into the I-81 corridor has probably nixed the afternoon risk of storms north of I-66. The 12z sounding out of IAD has a ConvT of 68° and the only place that really is exceeding that is from Warrenton south. Everywhere else is struggling to heat.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Several jurisdictions have county-run operations and some hospitals have them as well so this it's a consideration for us as well.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Right after we opened COVID testing sites. At least it's the HRRR so it'll probably end up verifying in the ocean or over Luray.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Can we all make a pact to not look at or share the HRR or NAM past 24 hours? The MOD Risk bust in IL the other day should be a reinforcer to not trust meso models past HR 24.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    We're the Mid Atlantic, that's what went wrong.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Sun peeking out in Gaithersburg...hope se get a nice line or something this evening.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Correct, it was between 8am - 10am. That event is a great reminder that if you get the dyanmics/instability right, the time of day doesn't matter.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    We had a 5% pity meso last time, but the low was about 7mb stronger and we were in Larko's Triangle.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    $20 says we see a quick temp spike pre-front as the low level inversion mixes out and we get a few SVRs / damaging wind reports tonight.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    I wonder if they are a bit gun shy after missing one of the largest winter tornado events in the Mid Atlantic the other week.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, it's always a battle of the wedge. I've noticed that when you get a maturing/mature storm with decent low level jet moving into us it's easier to clear out the low levels. When you have to wait on the jet to strengthen over us then it's sketchy. I would imagine it might not be as hard to scour out the low level cold air this time because we have no snow cover and the ground isn't frozen up.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Classic early season "high shear low CAPE environment"
  18. Eskimo Joe
  19. Eskimo Joe
    We're long overdue for a big, multi-modal spring/summer severe season.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    HR132 on today's 12Z Euro OP at 500mb is
  21. Eskimo Joe
  22. Eskimo Joe
    The "we are due" index is pretty high in several areas specifically: 1.) Derecho 2.) Tropical system/remnants 3.) EF-2 or greater tornado 4.) Large scale river flooding event Sooner or later the pendelum is going to swing back on us.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    From a climo perspective we are due for a derecho.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Might want to wait another 24 hrs...don't need to jinx this.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    12 GEFS is a marked improvement for anyone north of I-66.
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