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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=582&yr=2019
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Wonder if the MOD rainfall risk is more for antecedent conditions.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Where did I say that?
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Eh, it's okay for east of 95.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    By sauce I meant link.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Got any sauce?
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Line in PA gusting out and dying off....
  8. Eskimo Joe
    OT, but check this out
  9. Eskimo Joe
    MOD came after the 00z RAOB for IAD showed a pronounced EML and CAPE.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Blue Box until 02:00 UTC
  11. Eskimo Joe
    The high SB CAPE on the SPC meso page is probably being shown due to a few stations with anomalously high Td, namely KMTN (Martin St Airport), KNHK (NAS Patuxent) and KNAK (Naval Academy). Their proximity to the water may be representative of the local conditions near the observation site but it's similar to how DCA can torch if the winds flip to the SW or back to the SE off the water. The ML CAPE values are more realistic, and even then might be a ~100 j/kg too high because they are incorporating the above stations.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    ^i'm in Maine that day...bank on a big event. Even possible legit MOD risk day.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    So, I guess we're getting a watch? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1115.html
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I just hope DCA can hit 90° again.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    That's centered over KMTN which has a high surface Td compared to the rest of the stations nearby. KGED also does that sometimes on the eastern shore and it gives a bad impression.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Also have a convective temp of 87° which is dubious to reach.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    LWX's AFD is a bit curious...the visible satellite shows the region is socked in with mid level clouds. Not sure how we manage to get north of ~1,000 CAPE without better sunshine.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    meh
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Sounds like a few trees into houses in Columbia. Likely a downburst.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    We've cooled off to 86 in Gaithersburg.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    At least all 3 terminal hit 90° today so JB looks like an idiot again. lol
  22. Eskimo Joe
    It's 2PM and we haven't even had a pity meso. Looks like a clean whiff today. EDIT: there's the pity meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1103.html
  23. Eskimo Joe
    CU field popped in Gaithersburg. 88/62 at work.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    We're quietly slipping into a very dry pattern since Memorial Day. Several 'big' events beyond D3 have gone poof within 24 hrs.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Flash Flood Watch being pared back.
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