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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Just checked the HRR/RAP/NAM/NAM-nest. They all have a QLCS-ish thing running through the DC/Baltimore area between 17z and 20z tomorrow. They all have the leading edge of the WAA precip hitting BWI around 00z and here we are at 00:46z with light rain at my house in Reisterstown so they don't appear to be terribly off when it comes to timing.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    FWIW, the 23z HRRR, gets a QLCS going up into Allentown, PA and has everyone from Mason-Dixon south in an environmental conductive for tornadoes from 09z to 17z tomorrow. I don't think it's going to happen the way the HRRR is saying, but it's still somewhat encouraging to see the meso models not backing down.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    ^Supercell # of 12...lol I wish that'd verify but we'll probably be lucky to get half of that.
  4. Eskimo Joe
  5. Eskimo Joe
    We're going to star the day cloudy and misty. There's no escaping that. What really helps us is that we got a healthy low and mid level jet to help us get at least some clearing. It's not like we're waiting for the warm front to struggle through the area.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Circulation just north of Reece City, AL appears to be tightening up.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south. Not really congealing into a QLCS.
  8. Eskimo Joe
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Circulation tightening up just west of Oneonta, AL.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    FYI, this was posted in the SE forum. Impacts potentially the timing, etc. for tomorrow:
  11. Eskimo Joe
  12. Eskimo Joe
    I mean that even with a shift north or south it's got the highest chance of being a legit event.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    It's transitioning from one radar coverage area to another so it's appearing to weaken but it's likely still chugging along.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Whether we get linear or discrete tomorrow, it's going to produce up through the PA Turnpike. The real "safe" spot for action is from DC to SBY south.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Mean storm motion is like 55kts...insane.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Save this one for the archives folks...wow!
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Wow, just wow.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    People call bust too early almost every time with Dixie Alley events. Everything is going as scheduled, perhaps delayed an hour or two by the slightly stronger cap.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Up to 84° in Montgomery, AL. Impressive.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    I don't see it being a PDS.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, the biggest way we bust tomorrow is if the carolinas light up and steal everything. It's happened before and it might happen again this time, but we won't know until late tomorrow morning.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Watch coordination for Alabama ongoing. Should see it hit within the next hour.
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