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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    That's my cell to watch. If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Everything in this initial batch is game for a spinny. Line to our west looks really linear, more QLCS / straight line wind threat. just stepped outside my house and it's got that nice humid feel.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Looks legit to me.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    TOR for Frederick and Carroll now.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    SVR for Frederick / Carroll MD for possible TOR / wind.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    they're issuing for a 2nd possible tornado
  7. Eskimo Joe
    TOR for Nelson VA coming out.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Man if only we had like 3 good hours of sun today.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Red Box until 07:00z monday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0067.html
  10. Eskimo Joe
    I guess there's your 3 discrete cells with the first round. One near CHO, one to the east near Scottsville, the third further east just west of Chesterfield.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    We're a bit more unstable than I thought. Still not the greatest setup, but the risk for a quick QLCS spin-up is there per SPC meso:
  12. Eskimo Joe
    FYI, if you GR radar program isn't showing warnings correctly, it's because v2.8 was released on March 20th. You'll have to re-download the program from the website www (dot) grlevelx (dot) com.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    From a SVR / TOR "climo" from LWX we're actually running pretty quiet so far this year. According to the IEMDataPlot, only 8 SVR and 0 TOR issued by LWX and by now you'd typically see a dozen SVRs and a half dozen TORs issued.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Forecasting severe weather for the Mid Atlantic, Carolinas and Northeast is far more difficult than other parts of the county. You have terrain, cold air damming, marine influences and dense urban populations all within miles of each other. There is no doubt the skill set that resides in Norman, OK is tremendous but SPC seems to bust too many times in this neck of the woods. I've always been a bearish, conservative forecaster and it seems to work out to under forecast severe weather in these parts.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    This has not been a well forecasted event from the start.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    There are, on average, less than 3 D1 ENH risk per year in any point in LWXs forecast area and less than 1 D1 MOD risk.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Once you land you'll be fine. I83 will give you more headaches than tonights weather.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    You'll be fine getting home.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Meh.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Huh?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I could go for a March '93 about 75 miles east of the old track.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    So many temp forecasts are going to bust. Yesterday NBC4 and News Channel 8 were giddy about spiking into the low 50s today. For that to verify we're going to have to get to full sun soon.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    How much do you have on the ground? North of I-70 I'd agree with you that you peak in the low to maybe mid 40s. DCA might somehow magically torch..lol.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Meh it's not surprising. Anybody who believed that we'd be in the 50s today is a fool.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Yup...you want about 0.05" to maybe 0.1" per hour rates otherwise it's just cold rain.
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