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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Uh, watch box is canceled?
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Tops on the storm just NW of Culpepper are pushing 60,000 ft. Definitely a wet microburst potential with that cell and certainly warrants the SVR.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I'm really skeptical that we see any action east of I-81 this evening: 1) The line that's being warned this evening is in response to a bit of a lee trough that's feeding off the boundary draped over the Potomac River. We're losing sun now and it will be tough for air mass recovery 2.) East of US 15, the atmosphere is pretty capped so we might get some elevated convection with an okay light show tonight, but that's probably the ceiling for what we can expect. Admittedly, the CAMS has been having trouble with some of this activity, but we're kind of on the outside looking in here.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    It's nice
  5. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR and NAM insistent on dropping an MCS or something like it through Delmarva and east of US 15 around morning Thursday.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yea I thought something might have been off but my Tempest and NWS thermometer for my CWOP station read 94 and 93.7 respectively so it's gotta be legit.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    High of 94 today, then the bay breeze kicked in and were at a rather pleasant 88 degrees.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Good animation of how we aren't in a favorable setup for a big MCS or derecho with this pattern. The ridge axis is too far west. We need the ridge to set up shop over western or central Kentucky for things to work out here:
  9. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR also is putting something through
  10. Eskimo Joe
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Without a stout EML and solid cold pool to maintain continuous forward momentum, it's almost impossible to sustain an MCS or derecho over the mountains.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Stick a fork in it for any decent action in MD tomorrow.
  13. Eskimo Joe
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Pretty clear surface boundary pushed along I-270 from that warned cell in Montgomery.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    NAM is an elevated convection snoozefest.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    I can't wait for the heat. My tomatoes aren't liking this cool weather.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like we may get hot soon:
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Depending on the storm motion, this could turn into a flash flood event if the book ends of the vortex setup a training event. Similar to the July, 2019 event. That was an interesting day. Early morning MCS blew through then left a boundary for an afternoon long track EF-0 tornado. Was my first damage assessment for a tornado.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Folks, the 2012 Derecho was the example of the high end potential in these parts. The AFD written just before the event showed the 860 temps were +24 on the 00z IAD RAOB, an event that only occurred 6 times in the 52 years of IAD sounding history. There is absolutely no way we even come close to that potential tomorrow. Best case scenario is a solid MCS with elevated convection and very vivid lightning.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow looks like one of those days where you get two rogue supercells drifting through the area and they get warned with no watch box so it catches people by surprise.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that's nice. This is a setup that I'm not going to kick out of bed.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    //time sensitive// Check out the left moving low topped supercell in Garrett County going clank clank into the Laurel Highlands. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  24. Eskimo Joe
    /Mid Atlantic Severe In all honesty, if you take a look at the 0.5 degree reflectivity and velocity in the hour leading up to this event, you'll notice two or three subtle boundaries across Charles, Montgomery, Howard, and Calvert counties. Might have been enough to touch things off tonight.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Howard County took a decent hit tonight:
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