Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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18z OP GFS is a disaster. Hope the ensembles are different. System just winds up too fast.
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Personally, I'm more focused in the evolution at 500/850 and the ensemble mean versus operational. Beyond HR96, you'll just drive yourself crazy focusing on run to run variations of the operational side of things.
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Man, that's a sizeable number of big hits on the 12z EPS.
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Good point @brooklynwx99 how often do you see a closed 500mb low on ensemble guidance at D5/6?
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As long as I stay all frozen through the event I don't care. If that means ZR and IP that's fine. Just a stouter snowpack to keep the cold in.
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How about rain for La Plata and snow for everyone else.
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Yup. Having Walt at Mt. Holly was a treat. When he gets excited, hang onto your hat.
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Aw yes.
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Same thing with MOS guidance revert to climo temps by D6. Folks need to just take things a week at a time and don't wish away decent patterns.
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Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now.
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Snow and falling temps are great. Cold powder with no temp worries. Deep winter
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12z EPS implies we get snow this weekend. Not everything can be a BECS. Would be an advisory type event. Not terrible.
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Nice to see the ensembles agree with the OP. If the Euro looks anything like the Canadian, we might be on the way to stealing a third event inside 120 hours this winter.
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Adding onto my previous post, if the 12z CMC were to verify, it would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall.
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12z CMC is nice for the weekend. Solid warning level event, no temp issues.
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Ji volunteers
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Tomer and Tony (WPC met) are getting interested in this weekend's potential
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Euro at 500 starting at HR 150
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I can see the appeal, but the argument that I was making is that big storms seem to kick good patterns out of the area faster. Take a look at Jan 2016. Solid event, but 3 days later we're roasting and the snow is melting off fast.
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Yea it seems like we want to "sacrifice" this storm to set the table.
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To be honest, I'd trade a lone 3 foot blizzard for several 6" - 10" events and normal/below normal temps. Getting on big storm and watching it melt in 5 days is boring. Let's get and maintain a snowpack for once.
