Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Really good to see the GFS starting to catch on with the coastal band. Could be another surprise event for the lowland folks, if we see this last through 00z runs, I'd be more bullish of this being an overperformer.
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It's primarily used by DOTs and emergency management. NWS has partner focus groups to work on labeling and delivery of products to certain entities.
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I'd hedge straight to a WWA.
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Euro with the Parr's Ridge maximum. Nice little event. Our eastern shore peeps get love too. Another plowable snowfall for them.
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12z Canadian is a nice 2" - 4" event.
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Thus far, trend for the 12z suite has been for a bit wetter and bit more favorable jet dynamics.
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3k NAM has a Montgomery/Howard/Carroll/Fairfax/Baltimore county jackpot. Disregard the snow map panel in this image. It still snows after this screencap. Cold powder.
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Updated LWX AFD:
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Tomer Burg on Twitter has been hammering this home for the past couple of days. Global models might be a too dry/under estimating some banding that short term CAMS could pick up on. (Yes, he has a New England focus, but the same applies for I-95 crew)
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Folks usually don't stay up for the Euro on a weeknight for a small event.
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I'll take the 18z Euro in a skinny minute.
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There's nothing to panic about. Classic northern stream event. Light to maybe moderate snow with decent fluff factor. Plus it happens at night.
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Wes leaves for Florida and it snows. Bad luck.
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I just want the grass covered, 4" of snow. Also, potential snow on Christmas decorations!
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I'll take the 12z NAM in a heartbeat. This is a relatively fast moving system, but it falls at night and could give folks a surprise 3 day weekend. What's not to like?
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My benchmark is a solid advisory level event, 4" - 6".
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RE: Thursday event
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06z GFS usually comes in dry or warm it seems. Everyone panics then 12z calms folks down. To see it give us a decent event gives me hope. Also, GFS seems to handle northern stream storms better than the Euro.
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Set your sites reasonable. Expect an advisory level event. This is going to potentially be another event that we could steal within a week of being close to 20 degrees above normal.
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FWIW, 18Z GEFS is more enthused than OP for snow. It has a 60% chance that DCA, IAD, and BWI exceed 1" snow. That's usually a good sign for an advisory level event in these parts. I'd post the graphics but they're through a paywall site.
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Yea I'll take this in a skinny minute.
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