raindancewx

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year. Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 Week Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 28JAN2015 24.8-0.3 26.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 04FEB2015 25.0-0.5 26.2 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 11FEB2015 25.1-0.8 26.6 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.0 0.9 18FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.7 0.3 27.3 0.5 29.0 1.0 25FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.8 0.1 27.5 0.6 29.3 1.2 04MAR2015 25.8-0.5 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 1987 weakened too, briefly. 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1987 3 28.27 27.14 1.13 1987 4 28.40 27.58 0.82 1987 5 28.56 27.68 0.88 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1976-77 definitely died for a bit - 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1977 3 27.48 27.04 0.44 1977 4 27.45 27.42 0.03 1977 5 27.72 27.51 0.22

I'd imagine you get smoked pretty hard in March Chinook for what its worth. My winter analogs had November and March as the top snow months for CO and UT (not really surprising), and the Spring analogs still favored March but the timing shifted to mid-March instead of early March. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs have included periods in March 1973, 1998, 2003, 2005, etc, recently as top matches - all pretty impressive snow periods for the high terrain of the SW, and often the areas east of the mountains too, from basically Cheyenne to Amarillo or even Roswell depending on the year. The 1974-75 cold season has been pretty close nationally to recent months, and you had some big storms then too. It's kind of crazy, but my precip pattern since July is a very close match to 1974-75 and 1998-99 - both La Nina with big Marches, but also 1941-42, 1957-58, 2004-05 - El Ninos after major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast - also with big Marches. So the "La Nina ish" interference that has shown up in winter, via the MJO / SOI behavior (+9.1 in Dec) doesn't seem to be interfering with March. The local NWS put this on Twitter. I did want to make one observation - the local radar is down in Albuquerque. They are upgrading it. So now casting with radar won't be possible for the tornadoes and snow conditions that develop where that radar provides best coverage.

The GFS, NAM, and Euro all have heavy precipitation in most of NM on 3/12 now, and we'll likely see a fair amount of severe weather with that event. Hail, tornadoes, snow, strong winds, and heavy rains all look pretty likely. I still think we'll find a way to go over to snow in the city, but the local NWS thinks the snow levels will only get down to 6,500 or so on Tuesday with the Pacific cold front. Of course, they had us only falling to 35F last night and it reached 30F this morning. My hunch is we end late Tuesday/early Wednesday as a heavy wet snow right around freezing down to 5,000 feet, at least in the northern part of the state, but we'll see. Snow level at 6,500 feet implies mid-30s at 5,000 typically.

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW. Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years) August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW. Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March. Mar Nino 3.4 2016 28.90 1983 28.66 1992 28.66 1998 28.62 1958 28.27 1987 28.27 1966 28.21 2010 28.18 2019 ??

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks. I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201810 -0.75 201811 -0.78 201812 -0.12 201901 -0.23 201902 -0.55

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.

The big time storm / severe outbreak that is depicted on the models is pretty consistent with the SOI crash on 3/1 to 3/3 - storms tend to show up in the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19

Might have to hit the slopes next week. Euro has had enormous precipitation totals. Not too far out now - since it starts Monday. This is actually comparable to what happened in October. The MJO did the 1-2-3 thing 10/1-10/16, then it died, then it rained like crazy - we had 1.35" in Albuquerque - monsoon like - but in late October from tropical moisture. I did a query on some of the old data here, Albuquerque has only had 17 days with over 0.4 inches of precipitation in March since 1932, so these are probably near record totals if the Euro is even half right. I'd expect the GFS, which has never really shown more than 0.5" or 0.6" is probably a lot closer, but the Euro did have the big October rains/snows before the GFS did. So we'll see.

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun - Feb Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 12 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 1936 28.31 27.25 26.72 26.52 Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

That's a tornado pattern. Also, the storm depicted on 3/11-3/12 is the most precipitation I've ever seen a model show for March in New Mexico. The Euro has had over an inch of precipitation for several runs now, and the start of the event would be Monday morning. I'm sure it would find a way to snow even toward El Paso if the storm verified as depicted.

The Euro has been showing pretty huge moisture for the storm on 3/12. These figures are consistent with a pretty powerful storm, and they'd certainly end our 2008-2018 streak of dry Marches. In fact, I think this is the most precipitation I've ever seen depicted for a March storm in New Mexico - 90% of it is for Monday morning to Tuesday evening. I'd have to look, but you have to think if Eastern NM is getting that much rain/snow, there is substantial Gulf moisture coming up.

I'm kind of amazed how wrong my winter outlook ended up being in the Northern Plains - Dec+Jan was +3F against 1951-2010 high as I expected for those areas, and then February absolutely destroyed it, with 20-25F below normal readings for Montana. The Plains flipped cold too, but not quite as hard. I was "only" out by 6F in Bismarck in winter after being within 2F as late as 2/10 when I started to evaluate my outlook. Even though the numbers I had came in a different order than expected, most parts of the US were within 2-3F of my high forecast blend, outside the Northern Plains and coastal SE.

How about this for your crazy February 2019 analog re-creation? To be fair, Montana was -20 to -25 v. 1951-2010 averages, so the severity isn't right, but spatially it isn't bad. I had the wrong top matches for February 2019 in the Nino zones - it is actually 1995, 2003, 1993, 1973, 2010, 1966, in that order for closeness. Best blend for re-creating February 2018 in the Nino zones I could get was: 1958 (x3), 2007 (x2), 2010 (x1), 2015 (x2), 2016 (x1), 2017 (x4). In the Southwest, 1958, 1973, 2003, 2007 are all pretty wet in March. 1958 and 1973 are actually top five for wetness in the last 100 years. Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 Weight 1958 29.12 28.24 27.44 26.36 3 2007 28.66 26.88 26.49 26.21 2 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 1 2015 29.07 27.17 26.46 25.57 2 2016 29.41 29.01 28.38 27.40 1 2017 28.11 26.67 26.83 27.46 4 Blend 28.75 27.42 27.02 26.62 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 1966 28.64 27.55 26.90 25.49 1973 28.59 27.95 27.20 26.26 1993 28.30 27.16 26.80 26.40 1995 28.91 27.49 26.85 26.20 2003 28.88 27.39 26.84 25.98 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66

Looks to me like Billings, Montana has been below 32F non-stop, except for a brief foray to suana territory (33F) on 2/23, since February 13th. So except for maybe an hour, that's roughly three weeks below freezing non-stop.

When I did objective matches to Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 for February, I think the top years came out as February 1995, 2003, 1973, 2007, 1987, 1966. It's interesting, a blend of Feb 1987 and Feb 1988 is actually dead on for Feb 2019 in Nino 3.4, and Nino 3, but too cold in the other zones. I'd have to double check my records but I don't know of any double El Ninos where both El Ninos are during low solar activity if we are to move into another El Nino next winter. If you consider 1952-53 an El Nino (I do not), the 1952-53 to 1953-54 double El Nino is probably the only transition where both El Ninos were low solar since 1931. 1977-78 and 1987-88 both had low solar initially, but rapidly transitioned to high solar activity in the July-Jun years. That may be possible but it doesn't look to me like a rapid uptick is coming with the last minimum being centered around February 2009. July to June 1987-88 had 29-140 sunspots per month, 65 for the 12-month average, and July to June 1977-78 had 30-135 sunspots per month, 84 for the 12-month average. 1913-14 and 1914-15, and 1899-00, 1900-01 were both low solar El Ninos if you believe the extended data, so might have to look at the 1914-15 and 1900-01. I know supposedly Albuquerque had 40 inches of snow in 1914-15, with 27.5" falling in January 1915 with temperatures below 0 at a site a couple miles - and lower elevation - than the airport. Would love to see the setup for that. For being 100+ years ago, those winters are actually not that cold nationally.

Generally when we get snow here (Albuquerque) in Spring down to the valley floor in Mar-May - keep in mind our highs are 57F (3/1) to 85F (5/31) in Spring - I find the Plains or South do tend to get pretty nasty outbreaks. We had about an inch of snow in town on 4/29/2017 for instance (during the day no less, amazing cold with that system). The European system shown on 3/12 is probably powerful enough to bring snow down to the valleys almost to El Paso if it verified as shown.

CIPS has an interesting analog list for the outbreak. DATE 300HGHT 500HGHT 850HGHT 850SPED PMSL THICK 850TMP 2mTMP PWTR 925MIXR 2mDWP F120 F132 F144 FINAL 20120123/0000   0.842 0.798 0.751 0.880 0.755 0.780 0.729 0.853 0.932 0.936 0.855 11.074 12.279 11.514 11.622 19840218/1800   0.912 0.918 0.807 0.859 0.787 0.718 0.626 0.807 0.933 0.873 0.887 10.362 12.240 12.101 11.568 20010225/0000   0.740 0.788 0.860 0.888 0.841 0.876 0.756 0.850 0.942 0.914 0.893 12.276 12.738 9.237 11.417 19920218/0000   0.863 0.874 0.793 0.884 0.796 0.689 0.733 0.840 0.892 0.929 0.912 8.962 12.456 12.326 11.248 19920215/0000   0.769 0.745 0.810 0.900 0.695 0.616 0.506 0.759 0.861 0.784 0.627 11.960 10.979 10.524 11.154 20070301/0600   0.800 0.782 0.770 0.841 0.647 0.826 0.609 0.825 0.855 0.736 0.733 10.684 11.312 11.203 11.066 19820403/0000   0.764 0.778 0.690 0.851 0.755 0.680 0.788 0.663 0.889 0.867 0.826 10.639 11.585 10.907 11.044 20130210/1800   0.719 0.708 0.785 0.860 0.798 0.702 0.614 0.742 0.895 0.932 0.818 12.112 11.690 9.194 10.999 20070225/0000   0.866 0.831 0.689 0.874 0.773 0.739 0.720 0.875 0.906 0.873 0.761 9.104 11.880 12.004 10.996 20090405/0000   0.851 0.847 0.618 0.794 0.615 0.516 0.731 0.787 0.864 0.828 0.847 11.598 11.093 10.293 10.995 19860318/1800   0.543 0.612 0.791 0.836 0.788 0.758 0.538 0.683 0.917 0.880 0.811 10.248 11.155 11.549 10.984 20060129/0000   0.713 0.707 0.790 0.837 0.852 0.693 0.799 0.820 0.930 0.868 0.838 10.544 12.094 10.243 10.960 20020219/1800   0.710 0.716 0.708 0.763 0.717 0.806 0.592 0.702 0.849 0.832 0.815 11.357 11.050 10.254 10.887 20080411/0000   0.835 0.895 0.898 0.872 0.895 0.679 0.838 0.788 0.935 0.889 0.802 8.264 12.851 11.290 10.802 19820122/1800   0.636 0.675 0.708 0.863 0.773 0.863 0.632 0.823 0.810 0.698 0.526 11.846 10.754 9.800 10.800

Once the MJO wave dies, hopefully in phase 3 and not in phase 4, I think a lot of these relatively moisture starved storms should have a lot more juice to work with. That is what happened in October, AZ, TX, CO got nailed for moisture first, and then late in the month we had rain for basically a non-stop 30 hour period in NM, almost unheard of without tropical juice. That was a week after the phase 3 collapse in October (1.35" or so on 10/22-10/23 in Albuquerque). The thing is, unlike in October, there should be much more cold air around this time for a lot more snow. My rule for Albuquerque is first 75F high and the SOI in February predict March highs well. The SOI was -14.6 in February, and we have yet to hit 70F, let alone 75F. CPC seems to be on board with major tropical moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California returning to the mix in its outlooks too.

You had a big spike in the -PDO era in the 1950s too, with the double El Nino of 1957-58 to 1958-59. I'd call it 2014-2017 positive, 2018 neutral, with 2013 still negative mostly. In the 1950s, it was kind of mid-1957 to mid-1960 that was mostly positive. 1957 -1.82 -0.68 0.03 -0.58 0.57 1.76 0.72 0.51 1.59 1.50 -0.32 -0.55 1958 0.25 0.62 0.25 1.06 1.28 1.33 0.89 1.06 0.29 0.01 -0.18 0.86 1959 0.69 -0.43 -0.95 -0.02 0.23 0.44 -0.50 -0.62 -0.85 0.52 1.11 0.06 1960 0.30 0.52 -0.21 0.09 0.91 0.64 -0.27 -0.38 -0.94 0.09 -0.23 0.17

Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018. The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that - 10/1-3/4 Boston Snow 1953-54: 21.1" 1976-77: 47.3" 1986-87: 36.3" 1994-95: 14.5" 1994-95: 14.5" 2006-07: 6.4" Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5" My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

February saw a steady anomaly in Nino 3.4 on the CPC data - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.45 26.66 0.78 For DJF 2018-19, that's a 27.38C El Nino. My analogs for winter were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07. Blended together, that was a 27.4C El Nino too. 1953 12 27.01 26.18 0.83 1954 1 26.98 26.18 0.80 1954 2 27.03 26.39 0.64 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1994 12 27.85 26.66 1.19 1995 1 27.57 26.59 0.98 1995 2 27.49 26.79 0.71 2006 12 27.74 26.65 1.09 2007 1 27.25 26.45 0.80 2007 2 26.90 26.66 0.23 1953 (27.00C), 1976 (27.18C), 1986 (27.76C), 1994 x2 (27.63C), 2006 (27.30C) as a blend: 27.42C March only has to finish above +0.0C for JFM to be the 5th El Nino tri-mester, once that happens this event will be colored red - Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 Weeklies are now very similar to 2009-10 for strength. I do like that year for Spring after not liking it for Winter. A +1.0C Nino 3.4 in March would be pretty strong historically if the level of warmth were to remain. A lot of the strongest El Ninos were not too far off from that in March. A +1.0C March is like a blend of 3/1973 and 3/1983 were it to verify that warm. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 24FEB2010 26.5 0.3 27.4 0.8 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.

36F snow starting at 9:25 pm at the official Boston site. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=vef&sid=KBOS&num=48 Philly hasn't really been below freezing at all for this storm, and they're back to rain on the latest observations. NYC hasn't really been below freezing either so far.

I'm very curious to see what CPC has for February Nino 3.4 data. I think it's +0.7C or so, but we'll see. The MJO for 10/1-10/16 is similar to 2/24-3/9, i.e. migration through 1-2-3 and then the wave goes null for a bit. I can't find any Marches on record in Albuquerque without at least one or more days with a high of 54F or less, so I'm on board with what CPC shows in the long-range, cold gradually retrogressing to the West. March 1975 started very warm in the Southwest, like this year, before cooling. It had the big +SOI in Dec, and then a -SOI in January. Big warm up (+1.3C) in Nino 3.4 from the much stronger La Nina of 1973-74. The rains depicted on the GFS for 3/8/2019 in New Mexico are consistent with the first good storm of 3/1975 - also on 3/8. None of the plants or trees are in bloom yet here - so I suspect there is more severe cold (for Spring) yet to come. In 2018, the SOI went very negative in February and then popped positive in March (-7.7 to +8.4). Doesn't look likely this year - so March should end up pretty different nationally. On the European, the SOI looks pretty negative overall for the next week, with a neutral day or two thrown in.

The pattern as it is now should break later in the month. CPC shows a warm East / cool West again long-term. That gels with the long-term records here, every March in the past 100 years will have at least one high here <=54F, and we have yet to see that. I've been impressed with close 1974-75 has been to the past four months, and it is still holding up, at least locally - was very warm early in March (70F ish) before turning very cold in the SW. Some of my Spring/Winter analogs are showing up as good matches for how CPC is building their maps, so that's promising too. 19770307 ---> analog (DJF) 19680324 19990319 ---> analog (MAM) 20000227 19530315 19770302 --> analog (DJF) 19530323 19990324 --> analog (MAM) 19930302 20050331 --> analog (MAM)