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The Canadian has a pretty healthy La Nina in the monthly update. New forecast is on the left. Will be interesting to see what happens. I think this is too cold in Nino 4 at least.

Nino 3.4 warmed up a lot this week. No La Nina yet. Nino 4 is of course invincible. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5

Doesn't look like June 2020 is going to hit 100 degrees in Albuquerque. Always good to see.

I'm expecting a weak La Nina for winter, but only because it seems difficult to get Nino 4 to be cold for a sustained period. If it ends up at 29.3C again the Fall/Winter, you can pretty much write off winter in the NE, as December will be warm, and then Feb is favored warm for a La Nina, unless the hurricane season goes ballistic. The warmth from the West if anything seems to be rebuilding. The initial wave of cold will get reinforced to the east for a bit, and then probably mix out a bit. Will need another wave of cold for a La Nina to sustain from Fall on. Nino 3 does look really cold for at least a little while though, maybe -1.0C or colder. Spatially, there just enough that much cold on the subsurface maps, even though it is intensely cold. The little patches of +0.5 to +1.0 are starting to get near the western part of Nino 3.4 again though.

The June pattern nationally is pretty dry. Even in NM, it is really just small areas of the Rio Grande Valley that have been wet this month. The CFS has been trending much colder in July for the West though. My outlook for June had the SE/NW cold, with the NE/MW warm, other areas near average. That'll be too cold for the Plains, but decent to good elsewhere. I think I had the June high for Albuquerque at 89.4F from the pure analogs, and through yesterday it was 90.8F. So I'll be a bit too cold, but not much. Sometimes I adjust the analogs warmer for the Earth warming, but whenever I try it here, it ends up being colder. June highs are warming ~3.5F/century here, so I would have added 1.4F based on the analog years I used for 90.8F if I had done it - but even that will likely be a bit too cold.

Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet. For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 Some warmth returning to Nino 4 is consistent with the subsurface recently. We're sort of in a 100-150W La Nina instead of a 120-170W (Nino 3.4) La Nina.

For those of you in the NE, I've been playing around with this in La Nina. In High ACE Atlantic years, the NE tends to see vastly more snow. In Low ACE Atlantic years, the SW tends to do better for snow, while the NE does worse. 1933, 1995, 2005, 2017 are the worst winters in the SW period (hot, dry) in the past 100 years - all low solar, super high ACE, La Nina. If you had to draw a canonical La Nina snow map, I think it varies like this (La Ninas average 130 ACE). It seems to me that the storms curve up the coast inland in good years for the SW, the Low ACE years with the high more over the SE US forcing that. Opposite in High ACE years - nothing to force the storms to over the SW at all - the storms miss north or south typically (remember all the snow in Monterrey and Houston, etc in 2017-18?).

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 Lots of cooling this week. June may end up being the start of La Nina conditions officially - we'll see.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 Good old Nino 4 is still stubbornly warm. But Nino 3 is essentially in La Nina conditions.

Subsurface waters in May for 100-180W down to 300m were the coldest they've been (relatively) since October 2017. Huge flip from March to May. Keep your eyes on the hurricane season - in La Nina years, the ACE Index for the Atlantic is a good leading indicator for whether the West will be cold or not in the winter. Years with low ACE Index values in La Ninas (2007) tend to be cooler than years with very high ACE index values (2017).

Nino 4 is stubborn, but even the warmth there has been getting its ass kicked a bit. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1

Looks to me like the observations are broken or down now - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 ******** ******** ******** ******** Nevermind - they fixed it 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1

https://www.scribd.com/document/462193709/Summer-2020-Final-Outlook The analogs I used for Summer 2020 imply a 25.75C La Nina in winter as a composite - will be interesting how that changes from now through the Fall when I do my winter outlook. For whatever reason, 2005, 2010, 2016 have not been good matches to US weather yet despite similar SSTs, in low-solar, warm AMO, El Nino to La Nina transitions.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 Nino 4 remains the big hindrance to a La Nina - but the middle zones are probably going to be colder than average in June. Early May was still warm, so definitely no La Nina this month.

I'm increasingly looking at the coming Summer/Fall/Winter behaving differently than a lot of the recent winters. If you look at the monthly NAO data, April 2020 was the first -NAO month since April 2010. The difference between May minus April and September minus March as a blend is pretty indicative for the upcoming NAO pattern - so a rise from April to May (even if May is only slightly negative) is pretty different from recent years. The coming winter should be easier to forecast than last winter - the final data for last winter included a very warm Nov-Apr AMO, a slightly negative Nov-Apr PDO, a high Dec-Feb Modoki value, low annualized solar, a weak El Nino following a weak El Nino, in a year after a weak Southwest Monsoon - all that stuff is in contradiction or unprecedented to some extent with the historical El Ninos in the past 100 years. A low solar La Nina after a weak El Nino, with a -PDO/+AMO, should it develop has plenty of precedent. Years would include 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2016. The national pattern for Spring has a fairly strong resemblance to a blend of a couple of those years. I'll detail that when I do my Summer Outlook. Generally speaking, the -NAO in April is cold signal for the SW in June but warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the SE in July, cold for the NW in September. The big +AO in March is a cold signal nationally for the US in August. Low solar warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the north-central US in August. The AMO/warm Nino 3.4 Spring are favorable for warmth in the East July-Sept, and nationally in Aug-Sept. It looks like a hot Summer to me, outside maybe TX and the NW.

The PDO finished Nov-Apr at -0.2. Lowest in a long time on the JISAO method. Will be interesting to see how the winter plays out if that continues. Been a long while since we've had a La Nina with a -PDO for winter. Nino 4 is still very warm, surface, even subsurface in some ways - that is why I'm skeptical of a major La Nina. But I think a 25.5-26.5C DJF in Nino 3.4 is pretty likely.

Cooling continues. Possible we flip some areas to below average at the surface over the next two-three weeks. Still need a lot of cooling after that to get to -0.5 at the surface. I think it's possible around July though. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3

Fairly rapid cooling this week at the surface. Still a ways to go though. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 The Nino 4 cool down is encouraging for a La Nina. The European has been trying to get it negative sometime mid-summer and that's almost a precursor for a La Nina. Solar activity for the 12-months ending April 2020 was at about 2.5 sunspots/month - so we should be at or very near the absolute floor of this solar cycle too. If that's the case the NAO may behave pretty differently next winter. May v. Apr is one of the better indicators for it at a long-lead, along with Sept v Mar. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.6 0.5

Since 2000 we haven't really had a La Nina with a peak below 25.0C in Nino 3.4 in winter and Nino 4 remains very warm. That is my main skepticism for a big time, major La Nina. I was playing with it the other day - and I think something like this may end up happening given how warm Nino 4 is still. Peak cold around 120W, Nino 4 never completely cools off. PDO still negative though. Would "feel" like a La Nina, but we'll see. Obviously it is way early for this. Nino 4 over 29.0C makes it hard for Nino 3.4 to get below 26.0C though. I do think Nino 3 may be pretty cold - in the past winter, Nino 3 had a lot of trouble staying warm for whatever reason.

YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2019 10 0.38 0.49 0.70 2019 11 0.34 0.34 0.26 2019 12 0.37 0.45 0.35 2020 1 0.33 0.48 0.49 2020 2 0.32 0.51 0.53 2020 3 0.10 0.19 0.33 2020 4 -0.16 -0.19 -0.22 Subsurface heat for 100-180W is now negative at the equator down to 300m. Usually big drops month.month correspond to a warm month in the US - we'll see. El Nino is over - these measures were still positive last April. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

New Canadian has trended the Nino regions colder. I think it is a bad initialization though - it shows Nino 3.4 pretty cold already in May which doesn't look likely going by the weeklies since the surface is still warm. May is forecast to be quite warm though -

There is a pretty strong cyclical nature to date of final measurable snowfall here. The repeatable part of the curve seems to be 60-years, so we're around 1960?

It does look like we are trending toward a La Nina - but there is still a lot of warmth at the surface to be eroded. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 The data is 'centered'. So this is through April 25th. April will be the month to make this event 'official' as an El Nino. But of course the El Nino is dead now, and CPC's method of classifying is very laggy. Nino 4 does still look like it will be warm for a while.

The core of the cold water anomalies right now are not in Nino 4 - so any transition to a La Nina will likely go through something like an El Nino Modoki look first (warm around 170W), colder east/west of there. The warmth east of 150W is in trouble pretty soon though.