so_whats_happening

I wanna say we have a busy start to the season while Nina conditions atmospherically still exist with the tropics moistening up a bit due to the transition into a El Nino state will help moisten up tropics and subtropics in the Atlantic. Think we start early and end early if we do actually get an El Nino of more than weak forming. Really curious how this goes honestly, wouldn't be surprised to get near the average if not slightly more named storms ( Average 14 NS, 7 H, 3 M for reference). Interesting to see the Caribbean being a sinkhole would definitely fit the mode of transitioning into El Nino but also open the door for east coast hits and if ones can sneak in GOM hits.

I mean this is a step in the right direction at least. Would like to see more robust WWB but none the less a WWB will do. Forecast shows little continuation unfortunately so we will most likely get a cooling occurring in most locations for now. Expecting the warm up to surface end of May? from the current WWB. If we see another WWB try to set up in about 2 weeks or so it will give me more confidence in the more moderate maybe touching low end strong, if consistency can pop up that is. Starting to see some cooling Eastern IO and NW Australia so maybe we are starting to see some type of connection occur. It would seem we may be having issues trying to find exactly where forcing will set up. Still decent positive anoms in Maritime/ NE Australia region, very positive anoms along Peru, and an impressive amount of warmth in the eastern Atlantic. Would like to say we should have a better idea of evolution by mid May, hopefully.

Maybe it was just put in a different way but Equatorial Rossby Wave? In the summer you can get tropical activity that is in a broad low pressure region that can create WWB events similar to the MJO movement. MJO location plays a key role and with it staying in 8 that is about central PAC (slightly skewed west) it may open the door to allow for WWB events to set up into the summer. Going forward an area of thunderstorm activity should pop up west of the dateline that may help induce cooling around the maritime, sinking air into eastern IO, and overall help strengthen an El Nino like pattern. Big if to see that type of activity evolve though the next 2 months will be interesting to see if we start to see changes actually occur. It is great seeing ocean temps change up but without sustained activity atmospherically to keep that going we get a failed Nino attempt. I recommend Met Ed UCAR they have great tools and examples. Little complex at times but there is no need to rush through the lessons. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/ it is free to setup as far as I am aware. Just type in MJO and you will find two training courses that will teach you ins and outs of MJO, the activity involved, quick ENSO lesson, Rossby wave activity and more.

eye wall replacement?

I honestly have been wondering this myself especially with how far east the nino is forming right now. The atlantic as a whole is above average and quite above average along western africa/europe and gulf/ east coast i wonder if we could have a rather quick start to hurricane season as lifting will be focused in this region of the globe and slowly taper off as the season goes on throwing mostly close to home storm potential with shear likely on the increase across the tropics with developing nino as we close the season. This development of nino has been rather interesting to watch unfold. Im not sure i would go on to the strong side of things for a forecast, moderate may be a peak but that we will find out in due time. Thinking weak nino is probably the right call with an edge toward moderate slowly increasing as we get consistency in time. From a mid atlantic perspective we are still very much in the grasp of la nina with the dry/warm conditions in the area. Would like to see us moisten up as well as the se besides coastal regions before summer sets in.

Well it is actually snowing at BWI first time this year of actual accumulating snowfall, not flurries. Looks nice and great to see!

DCA +3.3 NYC +3.3 BOS +3.1 ORD +3 ATL+2.3 IAH +2 DEN -2 PHX-1.2 SEA -0.8

Streets are starting to take on snow downtown started maybe 15 mins ago.

Persistent Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska had a NW flow pattern for the general timeline of January 2013-December 2015. Edit to add on this was the general pattern for 2010-2012 which showed our area in a relatively warmer pattern. I will say smoothing over year to year doesn't do it justice but gives you a general idea of why things happened that way.

Very cool to see that temp drop in 2012-2015. Those were the years of the RRR. Can see the super Nino in the late 90s can see a spike in temps around Pinatubo (may not be directly affecting it just interesting). One thing of note though is the variability in year over year temps is much larger (larger swings) even with an ever increasing baseline.

Quite the warm anomaly in the east lol

DCA: +2.1 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +2.1 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.6 DEN: +2.4 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +0.8

I and am sure many others on here appreciate the commitment you have to doing this every month and even messaging us personally for monthly temp submissions (this is appreciated as I at least get an email that reminds me). I enjoy this as a test of skills and just some fun. I will respect whatever decision you make for the upcoming year but would love to see this contest continue. If you need help from time to time don't be afraid to ask. I and am sure many others would happily step in from time to time if need be to give you a break if that would be much easier on you. I can ask in another forum I am in if they would like to join, many of which are just enthusiasts but like to dabble in long range discussion so maybe a little friendly competition? I can see how the commitment to keeping a regular time schedule with forecasts can be very difficult have had some issues myself. This is what I think discourages people from joining more often. I hate to give up the idea of this being a contest though but that probably discourages those who loosely would play.

Was this to take place of KMUI? Also just saw it online at AWC for the first time.

I haven't looked at winds all too much with this but would probably be when we get the system off the delmarva. Best bet is to take a look at what is going on around DCA/BWI as the low comes up the coast. Looks like it may pop out at the mouth of the Chesapeake. Most were pushing it just SE of Baltimore flooding us with warmth.

According to FV3 it says within the next hour.

We may be in peak heating right now for 850mb. Nice cool pool forming through central PA and decent frontogenesis occurring across VA. Which could suggest we do get a random burst of snow/sleet occur and then back over to rain/FZR. Over the next 6 hours or so is when we see some of the heaviest precip so this would be the time we test how 'warm' the boundary is. We may get another fun time to watch as the surface low gets caught just east of 95 or offshore short range has been varying with placement of that low which could make a random chance of seeing another bit of snow/ sleet later on this evening.

It will be interesting to see how it handles the next couple hours. Says there may be a burst of snow in the Susquehanna Valley.

Unfortunately no but I would assume this may be the last winter for it as they fine tune FV3 more. Im sure it will still be in running just not in the spot light.

NAM is to be replaced by FV3

Haha thats pretty funny. I actually went to school with him. Had horst as the lead forecaster when I was there.

That statement solely relies on the pacific pattern at the time and serves no other purpose other than to shift the storm track further south. I think a better statement would be it gives opportunity to have colder air to funnel with a -NAO versus a +NAO if the pacific pattern cooperates enough leading into the development of the NAO (whichever phase comes about). I feel we have been far too lucky with getting a -EPO/+PNA pattern within a -NAO regime that it gives us this sense cold will be there when we get a -NAO, hence a big reason many associate the -NAO with a cold pattern. Honestly with all this talk none of this was even remotely intended toward you, you just happen to think the statement was about what you had said, not entirely sure why you felt that way but hey to each their own. I wanna say raindance's comment of -NAO was in jest toward the lot of people saying it will be a December to remember as is usually the case pointed out almost every year and then on top of it posting GFS maps of warm anomalies as we are transitioning into a west based -NAO during that timeframe. GFS unfortunately is a bit wonked out of its mind right now 0 consistency run to run so it was in bad taste.

Yea 2010 was a bit of an oddball situation with a -PNA and -NAO and widespread cold. Not to say a -PNA/-NAO combo doesn't produce cold and at that coast to coast, it can and does happen just not very often. This year is different in that we did not have a -NAO leading up to that cold period like in 2010. We had a fairly weak -NAO if you want to call it that with similar ridging pattern in the Alaska region leading up to current time. So cold got to build up in the similar regions except now it is just being released along the west instead of across the country. Talk about anomalous -PNA though in 2010. Here are the 2 weeks leading up to the end of November you can see the similarities between the two years except for one fairly noticeable difference and that is the lack of -NAO leading up to December this year. If we had that -NAO present it would have been able to funnel in the cold much better. We also had a very weak MJO basically null that month so not much influence in that department versus this year we have a more pronounced wave making its presence known and throwing curveballs at us.

It definitely was implied just a few posts above. Right a -NAO just provides staying power into a pattern if the cold got released in any other instance, it simply doesn't mean a cold pattern.

Little bit of cringe going on here. It is well known -NAO does not bring cold temps into the US so im not sure where that is coming from. Didn't have a -NAO with the cold blast in November even with a neutral to negative PNA sticking around we reduced the heat anomalies easily by half. -NAO is all about storm track and slowing the forward speed of systems. I personally would rather take my chances with temps near or slightly above average as a whole than have a ton of cold pressing down east of the Mississippi. Suppression/depression with missed opportunities off the coast no thanks. Many areas need rain and would rather see the rain falling then see the constant bickering of no snow. Plus it is only December folks need to relax a bit.