Daniel Boone

Yeah,true Kevin. Hopefully we get that along with a -AO. If we get hlb akin to last Winter, we should do fine. More cold in Canada to work with this year.

Yeah, hopefully we get strong blocking. That's definitely the gamechanger, dealmaker in La Ninas. Mod/strong la nina of 2010-11 attests to that big time. Pretty much all lr outlooks were very mild for our area for obvious reasons.

Preliminary here in Lee County from initial line. Numerous limbs down, electrical outages. Appears to of been straightline.

Yeah, that's what we were hoping strong hlb would do when it set up last month but, it never built into the AO domain. Hopefully, that will be the case and will help force the goa lp sw or even west.

Yeah, was a fun February for sure. Forgot to mention recorded -20 in Pennington gap on the 20th. -16 at my home in Jonesville with a high of 12. That was a Winter where Kingsport outdid Bristol and Johnson city by quite a margin irt snowfall. I know you rubbed that in Carvers, lol

NE TN. wasn't that fortunate as records indicate there John. Carvers and myself can attest to that. Look at KTRI for instance compared to Carvers Totals. Mine compared to Rogersville just to my South. Quite a sharp difference.

Good points Carvers ! Yes, 2014-15 had a very sharp demarcation line in who got alot of snow and who got mix or cold rain. Wound up with 34" Jan-Feb. Total at my local. 33" Feb. alone. Northern Lee County 50" ! That wasn't highest elevations either.

Late '70's Winters were tops for me. Pretty much wall to wall cold and snowcover ( 76-77' 77-78)for 2+ Months solid. 78-79 , got going late but produced solid Jan. to early March. 84-85 saw morning low of -27 a daily high of -4 on heels of a 7" snowfall from Arctic Fropa. A unpredicted short duration Blizzard Feb. 12, of which 15" snow fell in 6 hours with 4-6' drifts ! That AFTER over 2" rain . Didn't get to finish. Called back at Dr office. As far as cold. Dec. 89. 95-96...low of -21 Hi, -4 in Pennington gap. That follwed 10" Feb. 4 Snowfall.

Problem is, Invests continue to develop in west Pac that weaken or hamper the propagation n2 cold phases.

Can u imagine living there ?! As far as local, Wise recorded a dusting this morning. Flurries here.

Flurries between 8 and 9 a.m..quick burst whited out Wallen Ridge about 2 miles to my east. See Wise got a dusting on UVAWise Cam.

Yeah. There's some correlated catalysts but, nothing is foolproof with it. Thus, the lack of lr predictability.

I agree Kevin. Sure would help. Carvers made key points imo, on what would work . Propagation n2 cold phases is tough due to driver resistance as Jeff alluded to. The way out is what we have been hoping for; Formidable HLB. Alter the flow and force the desired 500 mb config..

I know you didn't. I just figured I should have. And yeah, you are a great asset to the forum brother.

I should of worded better. You do a much better job than me buddy . Yeah, a bit east makes sense as well.

Good post. Point I was making when referencing the possibility of similar result as last Winter.

IF the HLB does manifest then we should be in business regardless of MJO and the crappy PAC at least in northern forum areas, as last Winter showed as long as it's formidable and stable for awhile, providing there's enuff cold from Canada to come down, of which doesn't look like a problem.

Shafted here with rain amounts again. Weakness developed between heavy area north and south along precip shield. Just 0.33" as of 12:30 p.m..

Strong blocking could still counter it pretty good but, that's hard to bet on.

Maybe the Global warming Climate money grabbing bunch are involved. Hacking models to produce warm outlooks

Yeah, definitely need SSTs to warm at least in that Nina location. If not, pray for the ssw to come thru and pop hlb. For cold/snow lovers that could salvage January and a weakened Nina may Feb.

I think we all agree that without HLB this Winter is basically set in stone mild overall. When the Greenland block set up, I was concerned that the AO wasn't also going decently negative. I think we need them both to counter all the warm drivers with sustainability. IF a SSW does occur, it would assist in forcing a favorable HLB Regime i.m.o.. How long that would last against so many hostile variables ?., God knows. The MJO is, of course the other driver that can help but, can also hurt, as we all know.

So....you're saying there's a chance, lol.

1 in a bunch. Yes, a possibility but, not likely, imo. Qbo blocking and odds are against it.

Happy Thanksgiving! Sounds like a probable occurrence this Winter as I think blocking will be prevalent and that in combination with La nina and -PDO should result in swings.