MattPetrulli

Friction helping that core organize a lot in last few scans. Think it comes in east of NHC forecast though.

Agreed, think we see 50-55 knots at LF. Would take some pretty good intensification for anything over 65 knots so I doubt it. but wouldn't completely discount it given how small it is.

3-4" E of Sevierville.

RAP on board So we're really doing this huh

Noticing

That's sevier county including Mt Leconte I believe.

Anyone know single day snowfall record for Sevierville? I tried finding records but couldn't and asked MRX but they haven't responded yet. Asking incase it gets surpassed this weekend.

Getting better agreement on track/intensity with 00z hurricane models

Yep, kinda similar to Joaquin and the 2015 South Carolina floods

What METAR placefile are you using?

Despite the southern eyewall opening on radar, VDM says its closed. Also, velocities continue to intensify on radar, Helene is still intensifying.

SE eyewall has new VHTs going up + eye warming rather rapidly.

Looking ever increasingly better, imo think we can get to 120-125 knots at LF. Still several hours left over water.

500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES