HillsdaleMIWeather

18Z NAM is depressing even for the all snow areas

IWX saying WSW will probably be needed but no watch Edit: lol they just issued one

The WPC says to take all the non GFS models including yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro and blend them together No significant changes were noted with the closed low as it weakens east into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday morning. Regarding the upstream, large scale trough, the 00Z UKMET trended a little slower, while the 00Z CMC trended a little faster compared to their 12Z cycles. The 00Z ECMWF also trended slower and slightly weaker with the trough progression beginning Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday through Thursday morning, the 00Z deterministic guidance shows reasonable agreement outside of the faster 00Z GFS, though minor non-GFS differences remain. Given some of the changes from cycle to cycle, the final preference will not be to jump completely on board with the non 00Z GFS suite of models (despite their relative agreement), but to nudge in that direction from the 12Z ECMWF position. Therefore, the final preference is to take the 12Z ECMWF and blend it with a 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NAM blend.

That meltdown over the 0Z NAM slowing down making everyone think the storm disappeared proves how terrible this winter has been

0Z GEM actually a touch north and weaker

Rainer

I know... but someone here has to kill the last shred of hope

The ICON has caved. Rainer on all.

18Z GFS is an Alek special

First light flakes here falling

Sucks how this is all gonna get eaten by the rain

Couple hours ahead of schedule at least

Good news for this event: Pivotal added the UKMET

When I see people punting on storms this early:

Hi random WWA!

I think we all can agree that this was one of the most underwhelming storms of all time The rain underperformed The ice underperformed (not complaining about this part) The winds underperformed Hell even the severe threat down south under performed to an extent

0Z GFS has an opposite to our current storm event: Starts as snow, changes to ice, ends as rain

When I made this threads subtitle I didn't think this much rain

That one 9in in November storm is feeling like it'll be the only big one. Knowing our luck, winter will only show up in like late Feburary and March again if at all

Honestly close to punting on this winter

Looks to be a much warmer than normal start to this year/decade, with rain. Rest of the month is less certain after that, will it be a complete torch or will we get some actual snow?

GFS finally has fantasy range storms back

RR Hope y'all like rain!

0Z GFS hinting at a system towards the end of the month

GEM gets it decently inland