The Iceman

Looks like a clipper redevelopment deal, those are notoriously hard to nail down this far out. CMC has something similar just further north as the clipper doesn't dig as far south as the Euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Even if we can score a 1-3" type deal with just the clipper, that'd be a nice score before December.

Since I know this area can have quite a range of first accumulating snowfalls with the NW burbs having a better shot than 95 early on, guess the date for your backyard. Levittown, PA - I'm going to guess Dec. 17th. I think it's very unlikely we strike out completely in December.

beautiful day here, currently 72F.

NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter.

4.5"- 6" of snow in my area and it arrived during the afternoon rush hour. My boss at the time was an older gentleman whose wife didn't want him driving in the storm so he hitched a ride with me home since I have a jeep and we only live like 5 mins from each other. Our normal 15 minute commute ended up taking like 2.5 hours. Just absolutely insane traffic due to all of the accidents. Nobody was expecting the intensity of that one.

NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec.

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end.

If it means we finally get moderators to kick trolls like Phil Connors out of the sub, then I say merge.

Let's do a little game, choose over/under normal snowfall this winter at your location. Post your normal snowfall then choose if you think you'll be over or under. I average around 23" in a normal winter and I'm taking the under this year. Don't think we'll get a total shutout like 2 years ago but I think we see lots of nickle and dime events and snow to rain. I'm guessing 10-15" with maybe one SECS(4-8" all snow).

gfs/euro meanwhile are cutter>cold/dry>warm up> wet cutter>cold and dry >warm up> wet cutter. Preview of winter?

Picked up .65" yesterday and overnight. Lost power for a time too with winds. Definitely were some 40 mph+ gusts around here.

.3" total yesterday for a storm total of 2.5". Delaware River was running higher than normal this morning. Looks like most gauges are forecasted to touch minor flood stage. Pretty impressive despite how dry overall it's been the last 6 weeks.

the GOES 16 visible has been a beaut to watch this afternoon https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

2.2" of rain overnight

Euro is a boatload of rain

2010 -2011 was a great winter in these parts. Pretty much a snow blitz from mid december through the end of january with 2 MECS, one of those a borderline HECS(boxing day) followed by an early spring. Pretty much my ideal winter imo.

Warm october's have a pretty good correlation to late november/december cold. I'll tolerate the warmer weather the next few weeks to get a shot at some early winter action. The Dec. 5 storms seem like ages ago. It'd be cool to get a solid early december snowstorm this year. A winter like 2010-2011 would be good in my book.

Imagine talking shit after getting curb stomped by the BENGALS @ home. THE BENGALS! Didn't the Steelers have playoff aspirations this year?? I bet Heinz field is half empty by the end of the year if they keep that up.

This would never happen but I wish the owner would just say **** you to him and make him sit out 4 years of his prime. **** Ben Simmons, biggest bitch of all time.

1.65" now after a few bands have rolled through, maybe some more heading this way down south. Honestly didn't expect it to linger this long into the night. It's been mostly showers/mist pretty much all evening since the heavy band pushed through around 4.

Finished with 1.45". I think this was the first significant rain we've had since Ida.

1.1" over the last 45 mins. Still coming down pretty good. Will probably get to 1.5" would be my guess. Miserable drive from Trenton to Levittown. It blows my mind how many people drive with their lights off during heavy rain...

.45" of rain overnight. Tapering off now. Looks like the showers hang around all day though.

Looks like the line is beginning to fizzle out now before it hits 95. Not nearly as intense as it was 30 mins ago.

Timing on this one seems pretty poor but with the dynamics in place it may not matter much. The CAMs are pretty hit and miss in the overnight hours. N and W definitely has the best chance, it remains to be seen if the convection holds together for the 95 area overnight. The models that hold it together don't have it pushing through until after midnight. Lehigh valley looks to get slammed though in the 9 pm - 11 pm range. Line is still well off to the west right now.