The Iceman

BTW I'm on team "get on the board" with this system. I won't be disappointed with a 2-4" type storm. The pattern is ripe for a big dog but since I can only remember 1 white Christmas in my lifetime, I would really take anything that keeps the ground white through the 25th. That still looks very favorable at this junction.

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but I'm not seeing major wholesale changes at 500 MB between yesterdays 12z GEFS + EPS and last nights 00z GEFS + EPS. OP's are going to swing wildly in this time range, I can't remember the last storm that didn't budge 7-8 days out... If things are still a mess come Monday though then it may be time to get worried but the ensembles are still showing big time white potential.

Euro is a solid hit for all but the coast.

lol

GEFS also sharper with the trough out west That is going to be one of the key players for this system.

that 12z GFS run is a weenie run of the season so far Back to back SECS 3 days apart. Jan/Feb could be an all out torch and I'd be satisfied with winter if that solution comes to fruition.

Zero snow, straight over to sleet and rain 34F.

I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well. 00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with.

Buy an Iphone

Good luck to those in the NW areas but this event is a nothing burger around 95, if not for timing around the morning rush, I doubt we even see the WWA's. Looking long term...I fail to see how this 500 MB look results in a pre-christmas cutter, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's that if there's a will there's a way...

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

I'll check back where we are after the weekend, impossible to make judgements this far out in either direction. So much can change in the next 72 hours. Nice to see a parade of threats lining up in the long range though.

Have to love the parade of threats in the long range on that 6z GFS. Chances are 1 of them have to deliver.

GEFS isn't bad either, not as pronounced +PNA but still much better than we are currently working with. Starting to like the potential from the 20th-30th.

Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition.

Same here, 17th is my bday so I'd kill for a storm over that weekend. Set up looks a lot better than the first half of the month with more ridging out west, not perfect by any means but enough to potentially do the job. Still think the following week will be the one to watch though as the ridging out west looks to only improve from there. Now just have to hope it moves forward in time and doesn't keep getting pushed back.

Don't worry, they always start well the first ten games then things collapse. We're right in line still for a top 3 pick in a loaded draft and a GM change. My worry though is that unless they clear out the advisors along with the GM(Clarke, Holmgren, Lombardi, Barber), then nothing is really going to change. They'll only hire another puppet that caters to the whims of these dinosaurs. They desperately need fresh blood coming in from outside of the organization. The broad street bullies had their day but the game has passed them by. Get them the hell out of all organizational decision making, it's beyond time. As someone that didn't get to witness the cups, it's really beginning to stain their legacy to me as they are responsible for this current mess. I think Torts can be the right coach but they need a plan to acquire high end talent and no one in the front office currently has one.

Really need the PNA to pop positive. Things look good in the NAO/AO domain beginning now, but until we get some ridging in the west we're going to be stuck in the cold/dry > warm up/wet cycle.

So much for the early start to winter this year. First half of December looking mostly wet and mild. Signs that things may change shortly there after but the cans been getting kicked further down the line since early week. Have to start seeing it progress in time. Crazy pac jet is playing havoc on the models, they can’t even nail 5 days out let alone 10-15 days right now… will just have to sit and wait but IMO accumulating snow before Christmas looks like a long shot.

Below normal snowfall, above normal temps. but seriously that’s what I think.

1.2" of rain overnight. Chilly this morning, currently 39F.

First cold rain of the season tonight. Feels like mid winter

Whoa a RW sighting, winter must be coming Hope you had a great summer man. Any thoughts on this upcoming winter? Most outlooks I've read seem to be leaning towards early chances, lull during peak winter, then more chances late winter/early spring. Would be pretty typical of a fading nina. Would be nice to get a storm or two before Christmas, feels like it's been awhile since we've had a great December storm pre Christmas.

3-0* And this is a staple of Fletcher team the last few years. They started 7-2-1 in 2020 then 6-2-2 in 2021 before cratering both years. The underlying metrics are pretty bad just like the last 2 years. They've been outplayed all 3 games by a good margin. Carter Hart's .940 sv pct is a large reason they're 3-0. Once that falls to a more normal .920 or so, they'll start losing these games 5-4 or 4-3. It has been refreshing to see the team continue to battle even after going down by multiple scores early. I'm with you though, I was hoping we'd have a san jose start(0-5) and get Fletcher the hell out of here and have a shot at a #1 pick this year since the next Crosby/Mcdavid is coming out.

Reminded me of Soler's bomb in the world series last year that left Minute Maid park.