The Iceman

Sounds good to me! Hopefully no setbacks and this just continues into spring. I wouldn't hate an early start to golfing, fishing, and gardening season. I think we all know we're going to have sustained cold air arrive after March 1st when we're begging for this winter to just be done though.

Jake was referring to winter 2022-23:

I thought it'd be above normal temps and below normal snowfall but I was thinking below normal as in the 10-15" range, not complete shutout. 3rd year nina's usually suck around here but usually you get a few changeover/nickle and dime events that add up. I had a feeling we were in trouble though when December completely failed. Most established nina's in these parts are usually frontloaded. When we were blanked in December then flooded with Pac air in January, I was skeptical February would save the day as Feb is usually the worst month snow wise in a nina. March is a crap shoot though, I honestly won't be surprised if we get some stupid fluke event in mid march that drops a foot when everyone is looking forward to spring.

Warminster snow capitol strikes again

This winter is honestly worse than 19-20. Prime climo, perfect track. All rain. Climate change rearing it's ugly head.

If there's a will there's a way. But seriously I don't hate the look on the ECM other than it's blazing warm. With those high pressure's situated over the top up north, you'd think it'd be much colder than what it's currently showing. Interestingly the GFS has the cold but pattern is too progressive for the follow up wave. Split the difference between them and we aren't in a bad spot. Still a thread the needle situation though, but one of these times it's gotta thread dammit!

Feb looking like a wall to wall torch outside of that 3 day window for the RW storm. GEFS is UGLY. I think Phil was right though, 6 more weeks of this shitty winter.

Not quite, I haven't taken a statistics course in like 10 years but IIRC I think it would only be a .09% chance of guessing every one correct and 20.5% of guessing 4 correctly out of 10 so overall he hasn't done too shabby.

Hey man I'm on board, celebrating a Super Bowl win with a MECS on that Monday would make this an A+ winter in my book.

Only 12 days out! Surely this one won't go to shit in the next couple days...

More like driving rain storm ending as some sleet as the storm "creates it's own cold air"...those always work out well

Woke up to between a dusting and a coating. I guess we'll call it .25". Shutout averted

FV3 is night and day from 12z. I have no idea if this model sucks or not though.

The HRRR/RAP aren't enthused at all. Well south of the GFS/EURO. I'm guessing it's just a global hiccup run and it goes back south at 00z.

Snowed all afternoon but no accumulation. 3rd trace of the year. The 0.0 winter is still intact.

Getting some pity flakes now. Biggest event of the season!

That’s fine by me. Stupid cold with a bare ground and no hope of snow just sucks. Hopefully it moderates to just slightly below freezing by the weekend then we slide into early spring the next week. Take this winter to the wood chipper. I’m ready for golf, fishing, and gardening.

I didn’t even get the pity flakes. I’m ready for the warm up, let’s just get through this weekend then hopefully early spring. I’ve accepted it just ain’t going to snow this year. That bastard groundhog better not see his shadow…

I’ve ski’d up there in below zero temps before and really the only time it really got to me was if there was 20+ mph winds on top of it. It doesn’t look like that will be the case at least for now. Layer up to the max and it should be manageable. Nothing a couple hand/feet warmers can’t fix.

Hurts needs to be much better in 2 weeks. Idk if it was the wind or what but he had 3+ overthrows that should have been big plays. You know Mahomes is going to make those, we need Jalen to keep pace with him. I feel we have a huge advantage defensively but they have a slight advantage offensively. Go Birds! I’d take no snow this year for another super bowl.

I had low expectations going into this winter as I pretty much thought below normal snow/ above normal temps for a variety of reasons but I really didn’t anticipate another all time ratter so close to 2019-2020. This area occasionally gets complete ratters(I’m talking <5 inches) but that interval is typically once a decade. Usually even a crappy winter has 10” of snow. To have 2 all time snowless winters in a 4 year period is unprecedented. Who knows maybe March will save the day, I’m not counting on it though.

2019-2020 redux

Complete nonsense that the 49ers are better in "all phases of the game". Eagles have a significant advantage in the secondary which only grows wider if Maddox plays, a much deeper Dline (70 sacks this year compared to 44 for SF, 18.5 of which were Bosa alone), and by far the best offensive line in football. 49ers have an advantage at linebacker and running back and that's really it. Philly has been the better team all year and the only way Philly loses is if they beat themselves with turnovers. And that would still be the case if Jimmy G or Trey Lance were playing. People just can't accept the fact that the Eagles are one of the best and most complete teams in football this year. You'd think Giants fans would finally see the light after trying to convince themselves that last week would be a "close game".

It'll be "congrats Chicago" in 2 day's like the current CMC. Seriously though I think the 2 most likely scenario's are going to be either cutter or suppressed with the complete lack of blocking on the atlantic side. It's kind of a thread the needle situation for an all snow event because of that. It's probably our best chance in awhile though. Much better airmass in place though so if it cuts, should see a decent thump of snow/ice before the rain.

1.3" of complete rain yesterday. Not even a pity flake. 4.4" on the month now, certainly hasn't been dry...