StormyClearweather

Per the ECMWF, DC goes below freezing at 4pm Thursday and doesn't get back above until Tue, Jan. 18. Monday morning looks bone-chilling (which is certainly in part thanks to supposed snowpack).

Can't believe nobody's talking about the NAM for Thursday.

3k NAM is a bit slower with the changeover than the 12km. HRRR (yeah, I know) is slower still, so... fingers crossed?

I won't insult everyone by posting the whole disco, but to someone's earlier point about tornado watches... In terms of forcing, an upper low feature currently situated just off the NW coast will begin to shoot down across the CONUS. Following its initial path across the western third of the CONUS will allow for ridging in its wake. A cutoff low will subsequently shoot down near the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night with a coastal low poised to form off the Carolina coastline. This, along with subtropical ridging across the western Atlantic will keep the low tracked most likely closer to the coastline than further south. Main uncertainty now is the exact track of the low. This will greatly influence the potential for a widespread snowfall for the Mid- Atlantic or even the potential for snow in the mountains and maybe a slight severe threat further east. GEFS 12z guidance has come a little bit more in agreement to EPS (a bit further south) but overall trends are still favoring a significant snowfall event somewhere between central NC and closer to the Mason-Dixon line and points further NE. Continue to visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast regarding this event.

I guess we're about to find out.

Fingers crossed y'all clean up and get blasted! Missing all you awesome southern peeps.

Can anyone please tell me how you block/ignore someone? Desperately needed over the disco threat.

Yeah, 3k FTW

Are we going to ignore the shift south on the HRRR? I mean I'm good with that...

RDPS is still decent for most folks, FWIW.

Wowza

Who wants to chase?

Yeah, that seems like the best bet. Thanks!

So I just switched from Android to iOS, and on Android there was an excellent NWS-based app (NOAA Weather Unofficial). I can't seem to find something comparable on iOS that gives easy access to Forecast Discos, hazards, etc. Anybody have any suggestions?

Let's try to enjoy whatever we can get. I sure am. It's beautiful even if it doesn't stick.

This is just flat out brutal.

Yeah, the dewpoints keep dropping even with precip falling. Maybe that happens, but it would stand to reason that temps would soon follow within the next frame or two.

EPS looks great. Higher totals pretty much across the board. I don't have a map that I can share, but hopefully someone else does.

Yeah this is a downright weird run, and it's also an outlier. I love it for MBY, but chances of verification verbatim are downright nil.

I remember it doing fairly well, but I wouldn't put money on it. Either way, it looks pretty similar to the 6Z GFS to me -- maybe a little further west, but definitely within the margin of error.

It is a bit faster than the other guidance, which is probably a good sign in some ways and a bad sign in others.