StormyClearweather

NAM has light snow breaking out at 12Z tomorrow in parts of NOVA. I'll take my scraps with pleasure. Edit: And the district and MD too.

God I hate the NAM. But I sure do love it. Still snowing at 9Z for most (maybe all) of us.

I'm sure the 18z ECMWF will make it all better.

@WxUSAFPromised me three feet of snow. Where is it? Euro ensemble mean looks a bit west to me.

Yeah, I can see how it'd be painful. Even my old backyard in SC got a great snow out of that one, and on Christmas (evening) at that -- my first ever White Christmas. But I probably shouldn't brag.

Ouch. Message received.

Okay so I'm new to the area and keep seeing references to the "storm that shall not be named." So, I have to ask... can somebody at least give me a hint as to what y'all are talking about?

*shrug*

Especially with this kind of anafront/cold chasing moisture sort of setup we got here.

I mean, it's probably wrong, but it matches the HRRR pretty well for whatever that's worth.

It's the volcano's fault.

It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in!

35+ with at least a hit in the "blues," by my count.

You know it won't and its gonna piss us off. Csn euro be that wrong 72 out? When it the end result is snow for us, yes.

Not bad at all down that way... Keep in mind it's 10:1.

I mean, it probably WON'T happen, but... When you consider it's 10:1, probably not far off from the queen.

Per the ECMWF, DC goes below freezing at 4pm Thursday and doesn't get back above until Tue, Jan. 18. Monday morning looks bone-chilling (which is certainly in part thanks to supposed snowpack).

Can't believe nobody's talking about the NAM for Thursday.

3k NAM is a bit slower with the changeover than the 12km. HRRR (yeah, I know) is slower still, so... fingers crossed?

I won't insult everyone by posting the whole disco, but to someone's earlier point about tornado watches... In terms of forcing, an upper low feature currently situated just off the NW coast will begin to shoot down across the CONUS. Following its initial path across the western third of the CONUS will allow for ridging in its wake. A cutoff low will subsequently shoot down near the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night with a coastal low poised to form off the Carolina coastline. This, along with subtropical ridging across the western Atlantic will keep the low tracked most likely closer to the coastline than further south. Main uncertainty now is the exact track of the low. This will greatly influence the potential for a widespread snowfall for the Mid- Atlantic or even the potential for snow in the mountains and maybe a slight severe threat further east. GEFS 12z guidance has come a little bit more in agreement to EPS (a bit further south) but overall trends are still favoring a significant snowfall event somewhere between central NC and closer to the Mason-Dixon line and points further NE. Continue to visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast regarding this event.

I guess we're about to find out.

Fingers crossed y'all clean up and get blasted! Missing all you awesome southern peeps.

Can anyone please tell me how you block/ignore someone? Desperately needed over the disco threat.

Yeah, 3k FTW