StormyClearweather

12/5: 1.5" 12/14: 1" 1/1: 0.3" 1/17: 0.1" 1/25: 9.5" (5.5 snow/4 sleet est.) 2/6: 0.3" 2/22: 3.3" Total = 16"

Drier and thus warmer for many. And maybe east too.

A WWII movie with a Met as the main character? I'm in!

I remember a storm not so long ago that the GFS showed as a blizzard in NC, and it was on an island. I think we know how that turned out. Any time a model is alone in showing an extreme solution, it's almost certainly not going to be right. Unless that solution is an extreme drought - then it's always right. I realize I'm stating the obvious, but I'm doing it as much for myself as anyone else, and I sure hope I'm wrong.

Sigh

Which is funny considering the bouncing around pretty much every model has been doing with this system, which we've been tracking for approximately six years. Except maybe the UKMET.

And the CMC is a no-go. She dead y'all. I blame the tarriffs for this.

A reminder that it could be worse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/02/11/restless-cranky-balmy-western-winter-leaves-many-loss/

Only 384 hours away!

AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry.

Woof.

For those interested.

The amazing, incomparable, infallible, always right, never changing 6Z Weather Next took our light snow away, too.

12Z WeatherNext looked similar to, though a bit east of, 6Z. No idea on QPF, but shows light snow for most of us from roughly 0Z Saturday > 0Z Sunday.

Last Monday's 12Z GFS for this past weekend's storm: But yeah, would prefer every model agreed we's a gettin' a blizzy.

What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south.

Good lord.

Yeah, word on the street is it sucks at thermals, but we can get a dopamine fix out of it at least. I hate the NAM. It's only right when it fucks us.

I was so young; so naive.

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most.

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now.

Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says.

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay.