snowman19

*Take note*

The MEI shows how well the atmosphere is coupled to ENSO. Given the new data, I’m more confident than ever that even if we end up with a cold-neutral/La Nada ONI, the synoptic pattern won’t reflect that

@Raindancewx Even if the ONI does in fact stay cold-neutral this winter, the atmosphere wants to be in La Niña mode. The MEI, OLR, AAM, tropical forcing/MJO are all solidly in Niña territory

It was absolutely the PDO, especially 14-15, when it was off the charts positive. Even though the PDO was technically negative for 13-14, the configuration basically mirrored a +PDO. Bluewave pointed that out about a month ago. That winter was classic +TNH

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

If this winter does go cold-neutral ENSO, then we are at the mercy of a very high solar flux/geomag, strong -PDO, -PMM, a relentless MJO in phases 4-6, -IOD, ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, low arctic sea ice, etc. I don’t see how that would end well….

I’m seeing 1983-84 popping up as an analog on twitter and I get why…people want the very cold December. There are major problems with it though, first and foremost it was +PDO, second, it was volcanic. I guess you can make the argument that we had the major eruptions back in April, however, this year is not on the level of a 1983 or a Pinatubo volcanic stratosphere

In addition, it was a weak +QBO and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive

The Nina’s with +QBO/low solar are, the ones with high solar are the least, obviously Nina’s with -QBO/low solar are the most

The developing “Atlantic Niña” may be playing a role too

Let’s see what the EWB does, maybe it triggers another upwelling Kelvin Wave. IMO the worst case scenario for this winter would be Niña fail, central-based cold-neutral ENSO given the predominant MJO 4-6 and the PDO/QBO/solar states

I apologize to everyone. I have been working double shifts at my job for over a year now. Between the wedding and buying a house, my wife and I have been struggling. Over the last week, I’ve been operating on next to zero sleep and my patience with everything has been running thin. Again, my apologies

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

Yea and I wonder if this throws a monkey wrench into the rest of this season:

The issue with using 1983-84 is that was a volcanic winter, very volcanic stratosphere. That said and this has been discussed here, does the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang eruptions we had back in April have any effects on the stratosphere? Those were traditional sulfate aerosol eruptions and they reached the stratosphere. Obviously they weren’t a Pinatubo or a 1983. My guess is that they have “some” effect and magnify the La Niña/+QBO/high solar effects on the stratosphere this winter Edit: 83-84 was also a +PDO winter. IMO should not be used as an analog

That’s a very strong signal and it goes right into March too. Also, no semblance at all of “east-based” Niña forcing, not that this event was ever projected to be one anyway

+PDO, -QBO too. Everything about that winter was perfect

Correct and Bluewave mentioned how it was also the very 1st year of the start of the +AMO cycle

Agree and another issue with 95-96 was the IOD. That was an extremely unusual +IOD/Nina. It altered the normal Nina MJO progression and lead to it going phases 8-1-2 largely avoiding 4-6

I know you don’t think it is, but I think solar and geomag alone completely eliminate 10-11 as an analog. And as far as the usual clowns on twitter trying to say 95-96 is an analog, that’s even more laughable, solar, QBO, PDO, PMM, AGW, etc, etc., and on and on, don’t match at all but let’s wishcast it as an analog anyway

I think given the updated MEI, the twitter crowd can stop denying that the atmosphere is solidly into a La Niña state, there’s more to it than SSTs

Pray the Aleutian ridge does something favorable because the more I look at it, the more I’m convinced this is going to be a strong +AO/+NAO winter. IMO if there’s any help that’s where it comes from and right now, I think poleward spikes are going to be transient and not dominant