snowman19

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:

Credit where credit is due….even for him. I remember another good call of his back at the end of January, 2011, he said all of the high latitude blocking was about to completely break down in early February and declared that winter was about to end. The weenies wanted to throw rocks at him and were ripping him apart at the time. He turned out to be exactly right

@Bluewave On a side note, you were correct about the Atlantic going right back into a +AMO look and that New Foundland marine heatwave is relentless

Unfortunately the MEI may not update for awhile but I assume it’s deep into Niña mode

IMO the North Pacific pseudo +PDO is what directly lead to the -EPO blocking and +TNH that winter

As far as snow, it was one of the worst in 30 years for the NYC metro area. Epically bad. November had nothing. December had 2 minor events both washed away by rain. January had a trace. February had a minor event early that month, washed away by very heavy rain, 2/22 had 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, which was the biggest event of the entire winter, then a very minor event the last day of the month and that was it, winter was over. Nothing in March. Nothing in April. 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12, 19-20, 22-23….the 6 worst winters since 1994

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter:

Did you actually bother to read my post? I was talking about snow in NYC metro area not temperatures. It was easily one of the worst winters for snow in the last 30 years there

I’ve thought it was BS ever since the super El Niño back in 15-16. I’m sure you remember it well. Judah was predicting and hyping a very cold, arctic winter for the east because his index showed way above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October. Even as ENSO 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, he just kept chiving on and going with it

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

Models getting more aggressive with the trade wind bursts in region 3.4. We are probably solidly into a weak CP Niña by the end of this month. Also, the -IOD and -PMM appear to be gaining strength

IMO we are canonical Niña in February. 20-21 would have never had the 2/21 blocking if it wasn’t for the solar minimum, again IMO

Latest SSTs: Radio flux is off the charts…over 310 now. Sunspots well over 200. Solar/geomag states:

Judah Cohen:

Judah Cohen

There actually is a strong solar connection to the NAO, @Gawx has shown this several times. HM and Isotherm also used to speak of it in detail. Sunspots and radio flux aside, there is and has been a constant geomag onslaught going on. High geomag alone very strongly favors +NAO

The WPO may prove to be variable I agree. As far as -EPO blocking, not so much. That would be a very hard sell for me IMO. Not with a GOA and PDO that look like that

If there is pronounced poleward Aleutian ridging/-WPO, then that would obviously change the game. If it does happen, I would think it would be early on (December). Want to see what happens over the next 3 weeks (brings us to early November), but I think we face a hostile to very hostile NAO and AO, getting pretty confident in that. I don’t see the PNA playing ball either, obviously not to the extent of 22-23 but hostile none the less. I doubt much cooperation from the EPO either; why? GOA cold pool, very strong -PDO, Maritime Continent 4-6 forcing very likely favored and SST cooling starting to extend west from there (GOA) to the eastern part of Aleutian chain

A bunch of the preliminary outlooks I’ve seen on X have above to well above normal precip from the mid-Atlantic through New England. I guess stranger things have happened given AGW, but this time around, I doubt it

Good luck and I agree that this winter will end up drier on the east coast than some think. I know some people are expecting well above normal precip but I’m not of that opinion right now

Good point. Maybe there is a lag? If there is a total shutdown again after Milton, your lag theory may be right

@Gawx