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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Typically, the Euro shines during El Niños (southern stream) and the GFS sucks, it does much better in northern branch dominated/Nina winters
  2. snowman19
    A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z
  3. snowman19
    You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak). An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind
  4. snowman19
    Barely, nothing at all like yesterday. I thought this was the risk, suppression, OTS, not hug or inland run/cut. Same risk for 1/20 IMO
  5. snowman19
    I think the -PDO is playing more of a role here than a lot of folks thought initially, as is the WPAC warm pool with MJO waves propagating in the IO and Maritime Continent, which is definitely not the norm for tropical convective forcing with a super El Niño in place
  6. snowman19
    The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits
  7. snowman19
    What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??
  8. snowman19
    The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened
  9. snowman19
    Probably haven’t seen a pattern like this since March, 2018. If we don’t get anything from 16/17 or 19/20 it would be shocking, assuming that depicted setup is correct. IMO we do need to get something by 1/21 though, because I do think the pattern gets hostile after that given the MJO wave progression
  10. snowman19
    I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2
  11. snowman19
    Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?
  12. snowman19
    Once again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This is still going to be an official super El Niño. You lost, admit it. You’re embarrassing yourself right now.
  13. snowman19
    You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous
  14. snowman19
    That map is for 1/18, not one single person on here said the pattern was going to turn mild until after 1/20
  15. snowman19
    IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin….
  16. snowman19
    I guess it’s possible we are in a 1979-1993 type of rut. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard. Other than that it was a God awful period for east coast snowstorms
  17. snowman19
    The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February
  18. snowman19
    I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol
  19. snowman19
    The one I like is “it’s impossible for that storm to cut because there’s heavy snowpack!” If a shortwave amps in the right place you can have 4 feet of snow and 10 inches of ice in the path it wants to take and it will still cut right over it
  20. snowman19
    You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….
  21. snowman19
    Yes, very good call from months ago! I think the strong -PDO background state is also playing a role as well
  22. snowman19
    Good January call so far. This storm was hilarious, the usual suspects hyped it into a NYC snowstorm for days and days…when I gave my opinion last weekend and during the week that it wasn’t, I got attacked and trolled lol
  23. snowman19
    Storm total just over 4 inches in Sloatsburg. 34 degrees, sun just came out
  24. snowman19
    It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state
  25. snowman19
    The new 12z RGEM is almost identical to the 6z Euro, midlevel mixing issues south of Orange/Passaic, nothing at all along and south of 287: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010612&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
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