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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    ^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.”
  3. snowman19
    Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding
  4. snowman19
    82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm “The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”
  5. snowman19
    This El Niño just started Even JB admits it’s coming
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  8. snowman19
    Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest
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  10. snowman19
    Wow….
  11. snowman19
    Incorrect
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    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  17. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
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  19. snowman19
    Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
  20. snowman19
    ^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
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    Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….
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