snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I don’t think we are going to see a big October burst in Atlantic tropical activity. This is how many months in a row now that people have been saying a big burst is coming? The finish line just keeps getting moved further and further forward in time. Now it’s October. This is becoming The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Eventually you have to acquiescence and admit defeat
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@Stormchaserchuck1 IMO we are on the verge of finally going into a -AMO cycle
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@Gawx
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Also, a very strong -IOD signature here
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It’s been insanely dry since the end of July
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You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic
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Honestly, the most concerning thing, at least as far as snowfall is the drought. These typically aren’t easy to break, especially when in place for several months. They form a feedback cycle. And parts of the northeast are historically dry As far as the SE ridge, I think we do see much more SE ridging this time around due to the state of the Atlantic. BAMWX actually touched on this yesterday
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I mentioned it a few days ago but the WPAC SST alignment matches previous years that saw a lot of +WPO. This -PDO cycle has been different than the last major -PDO cycle we saw (1940’s-1970’s), where where we now have the western North Pacific boiling, unlike back then
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If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July
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Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe
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I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere
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@Gawx
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So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern
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The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October
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There are none. That’s why I don’t like using them
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I have no doubt that the SPV will be weaker this winter than 13-14 was. That was the most positive AO and NAO in history
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That winter was also raging positive QBO
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They are hyping for likes, follows, clout, retweets and views, as per usual. If just the NE PAC was warm and it was cold in the western North PAC around Japan (2013/2014) then yes that would be a +PDO alignment and would have that correlation. We don’t have that
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Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions
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If we do in fact end up below 100 ACE, I think we need to seriously reconsider the 3 main factors the majority of people use for tropical seasonal forecasts…..ENSO state, MDR SSTs and the overall AMO state
