snowman19

Unless there is a very radical shift in the PDO to a Victoria mode between now and December, I would not have 13-14 as an analog. The blooming -IOD also doesn’t fit, neither does ENSO

There has also been a propensity for -PMM the last several winters and thus a weak to very weak STJ….

No one here said it will maintain severely negative levels. But is a solidly -PDO winter a very good bet? Absolutely

@DonSutherland1 Looks like the anticipated shift to a -AAM regime has just started

No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part

If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

Tropical cyclones passing through the area

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:

13-14 was not driven by ENSO IMO. It was driven by a Victoria mode PDO (pseudo +PDO) on its way to becoming the very strong +PDO of 14-15. There was also no -IOD in 13-14. I 100% believe we see a weak La Niña this season, given the SOI, MEI, -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, easterly wind bursts, RONI, subsurface

There has definitely been an AO/NAO “disconnect” (they used to be positive together or negative together in the past) the last several years, whether it’s CC/arctic sea ice, possibly even solar cycle related is obviously open for debate. I read on twitter today that the new model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD for this fall. That anticipated -IOD/-ENSO combo, SST alignment, supports MJO 4-5-6-7 (“Niña like” phases) being dominant. Not that such low frequency forcing is any surprise given the last several years….

The thing I’m mystified at is the proposition that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña. You are talking about negligible difference in temps. I can’t get my head around that one

I think this Atlantic tropical season has tipped its hand….

If you read my post, I wasn’t referring specifically to 22-23 and 13-14. I was referring in general to the classification between cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña and a weak La Niña

Interesting that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña, the classification between the two is basically negligible in the SST sense. 2013 was a “Victoria mode” PDO, which looked exactly like a +PDO but was *technically* a very weak -PDO. Certainly possible, but it has a lot of work to do to get there before met winter starts….

Persistent easterlies being modeled over the tropical Pacific this month….I think next month’s long range model updates are going to move further towards a La Niña event for this coming fall/winter…..

Low frequency forcing/MJO 5-6-7 still in the same familiar area (around Maritime Continent) as we go further into this month. The Niña background state remains

@Gawx

If anything, the -PMM has increased in strength…more support for a possible La Niña event this fall/winter:

Yea, the tweeter is actually a retired certified meteorologist lol Crazy right?

Agree. There are obviously exceptions to every rule but in general he’s correct. -ENSO/-PDO winters that don’t do well in November and December are *usually* abysmal

Despite the great patterns for retaining arctic sea ice, here we sit with this:

Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal