Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,124

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
  2. snowman19
    The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs
  3. snowman19
    Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months
  4. snowman19
    Wow….
  5. snowman19
    Incorrect
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  11. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
  12. snowman19
  13. snowman19
    Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
  14. snowman19
    ^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week…..
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated
  24. snowman19
    In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history
  25. snowman19
×
×
  • Create New...