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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    !!
  4. snowman19
    This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….
  5. snowman19
    We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes
  6. snowman19
  7. snowman19
    Here is the latest sea level height rise anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC. The only comparable El Niño event since 1980 at this point in time is 1997
  8. snowman19
    Yes. It is extremely well coupled….SOI, OLR/standing wave convection, WWBs/westerlies and GLAAM. Once the +IOD really going the coupling is only going to increase more Record high GLAAM:
  9. snowman19
    That didn’t last long….SOI right back down to almost -20
  10. snowman19
    WWB time:
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September
  13. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  14. snowman19
    Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time
  15. snowman19
    Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
  16. snowman19
    If the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W (like the Copernicus is forecasting to happen by November), you aren’t going to have to worry about it. I think these big WWBs/DWKWs cause that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool to discharge and slosh east this time. This event isn’t playing
  17. snowman19
    Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W…..
  18. snowman19
    I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November
  19. snowman19
    Region 1+2 pushing over +3C Yet another new WWB projected
  20. snowman19
    And? Your point? You’re another one of the snow and cold obsessed weenie assholes I’m going to throughly enjoy watching squirm this winter. It’s going to be 7th Heaven trolling you and the others all winter long. A dream come true. Can’t wait to see your tears. Have a beautiful day
  21. snowman19
    It’s going to be so much fun watching your snow and cold obsessed weenie ass squirm this winter. Seeing your disappointment is going to be amazing. Not going to lie, I’m going to get immense joy, laughter and satisfaction out of it. I can’t wait, looking forward to it! Lmfaoooooo
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    And this is quite the WWB….
  24. snowman19
    IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record
  25. snowman19
    And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….
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