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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    The ++PMM continues to get stronger @donsutherland1
  2. snowman19
    In addition to the WWBs/westerlies we have been seeing since April, there has been a complete trade wind reversal in the equatorial PAC, at the surface and aloft, something you only see in the strongest El Niños
  3. snowman19
    I see the usual delusional weenie suspects are peddling the wishcasted fantasy that this is going to somehow magically become a full blown Modoki. Same clowns, same circus. Every year like clockwork, you can set your watch to it with them. Soon, the 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15 “analogs” will be flying……..
  4. snowman19
    Typhoon season in the PAC is about to explode. Powder keg setup. More WWBs in their wake to come…..
  5. snowman19
    In other news, the 90 day SOI is almost -14 and the 30 day SOI is over -18. Massive turnaround since the end of March. Extremely impressive…. When you combine everything with the ++PMM, the STJ is going to be a roided up beast this fall/winter
  6. snowman19
    Absolutely classic El Niño standing wave Record-breaking WWBs this month and more DWKWs to come….
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    This South American met agrees with you. We are about to see +9C subsurface anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC: ^Translation: “20°C Isotherm: the 20°C layer that separates the colder waters from the warmer ones in the deep-sea profile (up to 500 meters depth) where #ElNiño develops. Over the last 3 months, that layer has been becoming almost horizontal (a sign of an intense event). The slope of the thermocline today is comparable to the one observed at a similar time in 1997. This can be seen in the measurements of how deeply it is submerged compared to its normal values at 95°W (which is the eastern boundary of the TAO buoys that measure the temperatures of the first 500 meters of ocean depth and the gateway to warming in the Niño 1+2 Region or where we measure #ElNiñoCostero). Currently, it is about 50 meters below its usual position. It is observed as it appeared in 1997 and exceeding in depth all intermediate #ElNiño events. Two other relevant observations: the first is the surface displacement of the warmest waters of the equatorial Pacific, which at the start of the animation were in the western basin and today are moving through the central Pacific (see movements of the 29°C and 30°C isotherms at the surface). The second: a new warm Kelvin Wave forming embedded within the far western end of the large subsurface warm water anomaly under 170°W. In the animation, I have slowed down the speed of the last frames so that it can be appreciated how the mass of warm water sinks in the "tail" of the larger warm mass. There is the warm Kelvin Wave or downwelling wave. Currently, the continuous sinking of the 20°C isotherm has already produced an anomaly of +8°C at the eastern end (near South America) of the temperature profile. In 1997 we reached values between +11°C and +12°C. Soon we will see a 9°C anomaly appear within the +8°C one. This is the highest heat content in June between 180° and 100°W since the +2.25°C of June 1997. To date, we are at approximately +2.10°C.”
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  11. snowman19
    !!
  12. snowman19
    This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….
  13. snowman19
    We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
    Here is the latest sea level height rise anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC. The only comparable El Niño event since 1980 at this point in time is 1997
  16. snowman19
    Yes. It is extremely well coupled….SOI, OLR/standing wave convection, WWBs/westerlies and GLAAM. Once the +IOD really going the coupling is only going to increase more Record high GLAAM:
  17. snowman19
    That didn’t last long….SOI right back down to almost -20
  18. snowman19
    WWB time:
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September
  21. snowman19
    +8C is insanity. The closest match: 1997
  22. snowman19
    Out of the last 3 super El Niños (82-83, 97-98, 15-16), with the exception of the obvious +PDO back then, this current El Niño structure, intensity, along with the ++PMM, most closely resembles 1997 at this point in time
  23. snowman19
    Yep. The CFS has started to increase again. With the ongoing surface and subsurface warming, another round of strong WWBs coming up late month, another anticipated -SOI plunge next week and very likely another DWKW forming, the July model forecasts will almost certainly bump up
  24. snowman19
    If the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W (like the Copernicus is forecasting to happen by November), you aren’t going to have to worry about it. I think these big WWBs/DWKWs cause that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool to discharge and slosh east this time. This event isn’t playing
  25. snowman19
    Region 3.4 is off the charts for this time of year, region 1+2 has pushed over +3C. And this is with more strong WWBs and DWKWs to come. And there’s +8C anomalies in the equatorial subsurface in the EPAC, just staggering. If the EURO Copernicus is correct, the 30C isotherm gets all the way to 140W by November, which is record breaking, totally unprecedented. The current all time record for that is 155W…..
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