snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Obviously there are more drivers than ENSO and it does get too much attention at times. He is correct about the strong -IOD, ENSO and the West PAC warm pool being much stronger this year. IMO the real elephant in the room for this winter is the Category 5 “beyond extreme” marine heatwave ongoing off the coast of China that I posted about earlier today. I don’t think that is getting near enough attention
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Yes. It is a category 5 (beyond extreme) marine heatwave and I think it’s being completely overlooked in regards to this upcoming winter. A marine heatwave this extreme is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and I think it’s going to play a way bigger role than most people expect. Just like the extreme marine heatwave north of Australia that was totally overlooked back in the fall of 2019 and it ended up playing a very big role in the 2019-20 winter (++IOD) @bluewave
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This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter
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The SOI connection during winter works during El Nino’s. When there is a big negative SOI drop during a Nino, it corresponds to an east coast trough afterwards. That said, that connection does not work during La Nina’s, even though a certain meteorologist from Pennsylvania says it does for subscription money
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Mentioned it earlier, but I’ve noticed a common denominator among all the -NAO’s during the winter that kept “linking up” with the SE ridge/WAR….a New Foundland warm pool
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The 20-21 fit Joe D’Aleo’s musing that solar minimums see a bunch of east coast hurricane hits….
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@Bluewave
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Over the last several years the New Foundland warm pool has been a precursor to -NAO linking up with the SE ridge/WAR
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The -PNA tendency is alluded to in the follow up tweet. 2nd year Niña would support it:
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As far as the NAO, the New Foundland warm pool has formed again, as was already mentioned here. I think this winter is going to be highly dependent on the PAC again (goes without saying I know). The common theme on the seasonal models is the Aleutian ridge….does it go poleward or flat most of the winter? A -PDO is a given at this point, but how negative?
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A warm pool around the Aleutians makes sense. All the seasonal models are unanimously showing an Aleutian ridge this winter. It fits a normal canonical La Niña Aleutian ridge regime. They are also all maintaining a -PDO, strength TBD
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This is AFTER yesterday’s nor’easter. Didn’t even make a dent in the long term drought. The staggering dryness since late July continues. Soil moisture is just as abysmal. So much for BAMWX’s hype back in September that the MJO was going to initiate some crazy wet pattern in the east in October along with possible landfalling tropical systems…..
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There are signs that the SPV (which is weak right now) bottoms out in early November then starts to strengthen later on in the month….
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If I’m not mistaken a bunch of the -IOD/Nina years saw -NAO/-AO in November. It looks like at least early November is going to start with a weak SPV
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@Bluewave Thought you might find this interesting, it ties ocean current cycles in. Think arctic sea ice and solar also playing a role…
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I absolutely believe the seasonal models that this is going to be a northern branch dominated winter with a very muted/weak STJ. The deepening -PMM and Nina supports that projection
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@Gawx This has been quite the solar and geomag spike since August
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If the projected AK/GOA trough pattern continues into early November and continues to cool and erode the “warm blob” then we will have a real big SST analog divergence with 2013. Early November 2013 is when the warm blob came back with a vengeance and the PDO flipped into a Victoria mode and stayed locked in through the end of that winter
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If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing….
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The one main staple over the last several winters besides the negative ENSO tendency and reoccurring MJO phases has been the marine heatwave in the NW PAC around Japan. It’s been extremely anomalous
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