Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,215

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    @40/70 Benchmark Gaining more confidence this El Niño breaks the 1982-83 RONI record (+2.5C). Also think the ONI peaks solidly over +3.0C
  2. snowman19
    The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    That Webb post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week’s heat. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June
  5. snowman19
    Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….
  6. snowman19
    To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997
  7. snowman19
    “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”
  8. snowman19
    ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“
  9. snowman19
    New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
  10. snowman19
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    If this traditional ONI projection is correct, we would not only set a record for the traditional ONI since 1950, it would also set a record for the new RONI. If we assume the RONI lags the ONI by .05C to 0.6C and the traditional ONI peaks at that level, it would very easily beat the highest RONI on record since 1950, which was 1982-83 at +2.5C ^ “Well, after looking through the climate reanalysis on SST anomalies dating back to 1980. If the Preliminary SSTs get confirmed. We are now ahead of the 3 most famous El Niños on record. 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2015-2016. Again, I'm not kidding, we are running about 0.18 °C higher. This El Niño has a very high ceiling with a possible peak in November & December of this year of 3.5-3.9 °C above average. Not only that, there is a slim possibility that SST in the Niño 3.4 region may hit a new all-time record of 29.9-30.0 °C, which is 85-87 F.”
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    The CFS just continues to go higher with the peak: And building upon what LakePaste just posted, extreme (super) El Niño events offer better forecast reliability with their very strong ocean-atmosphere coupling:
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August
  19. snowman19
  20. snowman19
    Still very good cross-model agreement on a high amplitude MJO wave pushing through the PAC come later this month. That is going to constructively interfere with El Niño and initiate another big WWB and DWKW and TC’s. June’s ENSO model runs should be very interesting…..
  21. snowman19
    The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June
  22. snowman19
    A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.
  23. snowman19
    Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños
  24. snowman19
    The NMME joins the EURO, BOM, CFS
  25. snowman19
    @Bluewave @donsutherland1 This is going to cause another massive WWB/DWKW and TC’s. It’s also going to enhance the already strong ocean-atmosphere coupling/Bjerknes feedback. IMO this El Niño surpasses 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 both in RONI and traditional ONI….
×
×
  • Create New...