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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….
  2. snowman19
    All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event
  3. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust. The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November
  4. snowman19
    I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC
  5. snowman19
    Sea level anomalies vs 1997….wow Sea level heights…this is a monster:
  6. snowman19
    Agreed.
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB
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  11. snowman19
    Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you
  12. snowman19
    “40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:
  13. snowman19
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  15. snowman19
    I’m starting to think the CFS isn’t overdone with the peak anymore. The way this is going, a traditional ONI peak of +4C and a RONI peak of +3.5C would not surprise me. I also think we have an MEI of +2 come August based on how strong the ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) is becoming Every model has a monster come November/December
  16. snowman19
    FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event
  17. snowman19
    We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface
  18. snowman19
  19. snowman19
    The new EURO SEAS5 continues with a strong +IOD developing. Given all the other current antecedent conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere, there is going to be no limit to how much this Niño strengthens and couples from here on out. It would not surprise me if the MEI reaches or surpasses +2 come August….
  20. snowman19
    Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44
  21. snowman19
    We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:
  22. snowman19
    @Lakepaste25
  23. snowman19
    The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….
  24. snowman19
    This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point: “+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent. A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause. The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts. Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback. However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.” ^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
  25. snowman19
    “The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”
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