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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    I get what you’re saying with adding an OHC component to the formula, but I think looking at it separately is just as effective
  2. snowman19
    And the MEI cope has officially failed miserably, down in flames!! Womp, womp!! The last 5 months have been absolutely hilarious. Let’s see…First there was the RONI cope, FAIL, then there was the SOI cope, FAIL, then there was the trade winds are going to come back cope, FAIL, then there was the ridiculous Modoki cope, FAIL, then there MEI cope, FAIL, now we have the -PDO cope, also destined to miserably fail this fall. Can’t wait to see what the next copium will be to downplay the strongest east-based super El Niño in history…. Have to post this again….makes me smile
  3. snowman19
    The coupling is extreme. Biggest April - July MEI rise in history, like you said, up to +2.4 now. The highest MEI value we’ve had since 1998 and only 0.5 from the all time record of +2.9:
  4. snowman19
    Completely agree about the PMM. Once we get into met fall and the effects in the NH start to become much more pronounced, I think that’s when we see a big pattern shift along with the change in the PDO. The +IOD just got going at the tail end of July. Once that strengthens throughout the fall and starts constructively interfering/coupling with El Niño, that’s when the big changes in the NH really get going
  5. snowman19
    A small area of +10C is starting to develop in the subsurface
  6. snowman19
    This thermocline is ridiculous
  7. snowman19
    This is why region 1+2 is an inferno (+4C) besides the WWBs and DWKWs…the South Pacific High (Anticyclone) has totally collapsed Also, region 3 has gone up an entire degree (up to over +3C) in one month. Crazy
  8. snowman19
    WWBs for days Very strong coupling
  9. snowman19
    I have no explanation. It makes no sense whatsoever when compared to the OISST RONI. The BOM and NOAA are and have been in complete disagreement. The BOM has the official weekly readings consistently much higher than NOAA’s
  10. snowman19
    Something has got to give with the PDO/extratropics. The models continue the massive Nino forcing and coupling into the fall. The fall is when ENSO effects on the mid-latitudes become much more pronounced and continue to increase into the winter. Call me the crazy one, but I just can’t see the -PDO continuing beyond November and I’m confident that we see a rapid rise during met fall and an eventual flip to weak positive by the end of met fall
  11. snowman19
    The east-based forcing is absolutely believable. Why? Because we have the 30C isotherm all the way east of the dateline now and it’s still moving further east, being pushed by the non stop WWBs and DWKWs. The models have it getting all the way to 140W. This has never happened before in weather record history and the convection is going to follow it IMO In other news, the +IOD is getting stronger quickly, it’s now up to +0.63 from +0.44 last week. The models are also getting stronger with it this fall
  12. snowman19
    The spring ++PMM leading to an east-based/EP El Niño worked out perfectly! @Stormchaserchuck1 That research paper was actually a very good one that we saw verify Region 1+2:
  13. snowman19
    @GaWx @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @csnavywx @Isotherm @raindancewx @Stormchaserchuck1 @BlizzardWx @LakePaste25 @forkyfork @EasternLI
  14. snowman19
    Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm, 82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm *PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count*
  15. snowman19
    Here is a very interesting recent study on positive (westerly) QBO’s with El Niños Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112854 Key Points: Westerly Phase Impact: The westerly phase of the QBO suppresses tropical convection in the western Pacific, accentuating the weakening of the Walker circulation typical during El Niño. Observational and model evidence show that the QBO modulates upper-tropospheric divergence, with reduced outflow over the Maritime Continent during the westerly phase. It can also impact the warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, characterized by a weakened Walker circulation. These results suggest that considering the QBO state could improve El Niño prediction and projection, particularly for extreme events. @LakePaste25 @EasternLI @GaWx @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @Stormchaserchuck1
  16. snowman19
  17. snowman19
    3.4 Over +2C: 1+2 Over +4C: Region 3 over +3C: Thermocline:
  18. snowman19
    It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong
  19. snowman19
    @Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months and the record-breaking rise since April, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..
  20. snowman19
    I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall
  21. snowman19
    +12C subsurface anomalies are coming And the WWBs just keep pushing that 30C isotherm further and further east of the dateline. Great forecast by the EURO months ago showing the record far east warm pool
  22. snowman19
    The CANSIPS is playing catch up to the CFS and the EURO. It’s very likely not done strengthening this event even further, it was way too weak to start out with and very good call with its “Modoki bias”. I agree that it’s not done adjusting this to an east-based event either. The CFS just got even stronger with the traditional ONI and RONI. The EURO is guaranteed to get stronger as well, with its new update on 8/5 @LakePaste25
  23. snowman19
    The EPAC hurricane season off to a big start too with lots more to come
  24. snowman19
    Classic El Niño forcing is taking over the Northern Hemisphere. ++GLAAM
  25. snowman19
    Also of note, that 30C warm pool keeps migrating further and further east of the dateline, pushed by the non stop WWBs
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