snowman19

If this season does turn into an epic bust (ACE below to well below 150), the question is why and I think it goes beyond an “Atlantic Niña”/possible very early stages of an AMO shift). Was it this record high solar flux/sunspots and geomag? I think that’s playing a huge role; increased high UV heating the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s causing stabilization. Did the Ruang volcanic eruptions in April also play some role? Possibly, but likely minor

My gut is that this Atlantic hurricane season ends below 150 ACE, possibly way below that….

The picture for winter right now is ugly, I don’t think anyone here is going to dispute that. Still waiting to see the official raw QBO number for August. If that’s actually as high as I saw posted on twitter yesterday, it will make an already ugly picture even uglier. There’s no way to sugar coat the QBO going very strongly positive right now in the face of the other variables we already have

Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all. We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired

Good question. The person who posted it did not say, that’s why I’m trying to confirm if it was the anomalies or the raw number. If that’s actually the raw number (approaching +20), considering we are going to continue rising this fall, we are in big trouble. DT’s research has proven that very strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging zonal PAC jet by adding speed and westerly momentum to the upper atmosphere

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

This (solar cycle) is exactly what happened back in 01-02. The incoming UV from the high solar flux warms the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s @donsutherland1

I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April @Gawx

All the new model runs look terrible for Atlantic TC development now. We are starting to run out of time for a hyperactive season with very high ACE and a big number of named storms

Just saw the new Nov-Mar 500mb maps and it looks unimpressive, completely void of high latitude NAO/AO blocking and it goes canonical Niña torch Feb/Mar. Aleutian ridge city, negative PNAish and it pumps the SE ridge starting in Jan

No one cares what you think. You contribute nothing. Useless member. Disappear

There’s musings on twitter about the Atlantic tropical season possibly being shunted by the solar max and possible effects from the low latitude/tropical volcanic eruptions back in April. Also some chatter about the AMO/Atlantic “Niña” possibly being a culprit as well

If the QBO becomes strongly positive the PAC jet is going to roar. DT was absolutely right about that correlation. Strong +QBO strengthens and adds westerly momentum in the upper atmosphere to the jet and causes it to rage. 16-17 was a real good recent example. And for once JB might be right about the MJO, assuming he sticks to it and that’s a big assumption but, there is good evidence to suspect a continuation of MJO 4-6. Warmest SSTs still in those phases and cold-ENSO/-IOD. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it, he tends to be stubborn, i.e. insisting that arctic sea ice is going to increase for the last like 5 years @GaWx Looks like the final average sunspot number for August is going to be solidly over 200. Geomag activity/solar flux also averaged well above normal for the month

The more I look at it the more I’m thinking we see a rather strong +NAO/+AO winter. Also, it looks like we are going to see a substantial strengthening of the already very strong -PDO, along with a PMM drop. We have big cooling going on in the Bering Sea. This is a normal precursor to downstream cooling in the GOA/GOA cold pool and subsequent “cold horseshoe” from there, down the west coast of North America to Baja and into the tropics. Given the developing cold ENSO, that will only serve to strengthen this system and drop the PDO and PMM further. Classic look PDO phase maps: https://prfrainfall.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-

I saw a rumor that he’s going warmer than average with below normal snow on Twitter Wednesday night. Guess it was true. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it come November or reverses and goes cold and snowy. My guess is that he’s cold and snowy by Thanksgiving….

Right. Assuming that’s really what is happening, it would have an effect on next winter. It’s still strongly positive at the moment and I don’t see it having any effect at all on this winter, it’s starting to happen way too late for that and it’s going to be a slow process, again, assuming this is the case

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer

If we do actually end up seeing an official trimonthly La Niña (I’m not sure we do anymore) there’s no models showing it being east-based. I think we can take an east-based event off the table

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting

That would be them. Just saw the bogus ice age wxbell run for DJFM get posted about an hour ago

Correct. And not everyone thinks this winter is going to suck. The weenie twitter clowns are posting the CFS and saying the “analogs” are 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21. Normal yearly routine for them….