snowman19

That is extremely ugly

Not that it matters because I’ve yet to see it actually work, but it looks like Judah’s beloved SAI will be below normal this year, HM illustrates why. Anyway, the SPV strengthening has begun. We need to follow that very closely, definitely agree with you that it will determine December’s fate. Big question, does it stop and weaken at month’s end or does it remain strong? All we can do is monitor it in real time

Not initially, those MJO phases are “classic” Niña phases, which in early winter doesn’t really support torch, but when you get into mid and late winter they do, especially in February when the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent. Which is why Nina’s are stereotyped as “front end loaded” winters

Thank you. Yea, the SPV is the big wild card….the GEFS keeps it strong into early December, the Euro has it weaker but not as weak as last week like you said. Interested to see what actually happens…think we’ll have a better idea by mid month. One thing is certain, I think MJO phases 4-6 are going to be dominant this winter

@bluewave Have you seen the weeklies yet? Just saw on Twitter that they supposedly are still insisting on a +PNA spike just after mid-month but then it starts to collapse come early December. They didn’t provide any maps so I couldn’t tell if the description was accurate

Will be interesting for sure, some are saying the SPV stays strong through the end of the month, some saying it weakens. I’m not buying the EPS +PNA spike in the long range. First off, the EPS has a history of pumping phantom +PNAs in the long range only to back off as we get closer. The GEFS are already backing off the PNA. Second, this isn’t last year where the Niña never coupled. We now have a very well coupled, strengthening La Niña in place along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. I very seriously doubt any extended +PNA

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November:

This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month…..

As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month

I expect November to be yet another above normal month, nothing like October was, which was ridiculously warm, but something like a +1 - +2 AN month would not surprise me. After this week, we mild right back up again. You still have the troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO)….you aren’t going to get cold with that look

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi

Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail:

I see what you mean, massive solar flare/geomagnetic storm going on right now, just saw the news article on it. Supposedly the biggest solar storm and flux in years: https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2021/10/29/giant-solar-flare-prompts-geomagnetic-storm-warning-for-halloween-weekend/

He’s irrelevant, been irrelevant for years. No one takes him, Henry Margusity or Judah Cohen seriously anymore.

This time around, the MJO is going to favor phases 4-6 (classic La Niña forcing). You have a very strongly coupled Niña this time around unlike last winter, where phases 1-3 were dominant.

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?

March, 2012 was ridiculous. I had to turn the a/c on a couple of days after St. Patrick’s Day. It was in the upper 80’s

After their absolutely abysmal performance predicting the AO/NAO last winter, I view all these models with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise. Last year at this time, all of them were showing raging ++AO and ++NAO for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar……and they were dead wrong, literally could not have been more wrong

What are the potential effects of a high solar flux given the current background states? I really haven’t read too much into the solar aspects

Judah…..lmfaooooo hahahahaha What do JB and Henry Margusity say? Lol

No, you really don’t lol and 10-11 was a 1st year Niña coming off a Niño and it was +QBO lol

Once again, courtesy of the WAR, the cold can only progress so far east. Deja Vu of the last few years….the models are way too cold in the extended only to correct warmer the closer we get

You have no idea what you’re even talking about, literally none. 11-12 was -QBO also