snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The 2011-12 winter had a +PNA for both December and January…that’s a surprise. I thought that was a predominant -PNA winter
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Completely agree. I see the December, 1983 talk by some as being equally ridiculous….volcanic stratosphere from a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before, +QBO, +PDO
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The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….
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It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably
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Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two
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I agree. He’s trying to hype it into a KU coastal storm pattern up the east coast. I don’t know what in the heck he’s looking at
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An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?
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The beginning of November through the end of March is totally insufferable on X. The usual suspects are always looking for subscription money, clout, likes, follows, views and retweets from the east coast weenies. Every L on the weather maps gets hyped into the Blizzard of 1996 and every cold outbreak gets hyped into turning the east coast into an arctic tundra like The Day After Tomorrow. Year after year, you can set your watch to it. It’s sad
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@40/70 Benchmark EPS is showing your -PNA idea starting at the tail end of the month going into December
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FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:
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I took BAMWX’s word for it. Lol I guess they are mistaken?
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The 1989 blocking was started by a combination of an early SSWE and a very strong MJO wave that went 7-8-1-2, which lead to the Thanksgiving snowstorm up I-95 and the record cold December….
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The news is comical right now. The bad, false info about SSWEs they are putting out is astonishing. A real disservice honestly. They don’t even talk about the lag effect and are hyping an ice age coming up the end of this month
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Haven’t even begun to think about it yet. But I do appreciate the vapid airhead commentary as always
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It’s blatantly obvious now that we are going to be transitioning into an El Niño in a big way this spring. I think once we get to March/April the transition really kicks into high gear and it’s going to be rapid….possibly very rapid. Would not surprise me if the ENSO region SSTs reach weak El Nino status by the end of May
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If people are looking for a parade of KU’s up the coast, that’s probably not happening this winter with the Niña/-PMM greatly suppressing and muting the STJ
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Yes. The 12z EPS started to show RNA the tail end of this month into December. I believe the -PNA flip is definitely coming. I also don’t doubt the -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO
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I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA
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The 2010-11 winter was the first and last time I ever heard JB predict an early end to winter. Just before mid-January he posted that all the high latitude blocking was going to completely break down by early February and that winter was going to come to an abrupt end in the east and not come back again. For the most part, he ended up being right
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Verbatim, it’s showing a -PNA/RNA. If it’s correct with the -EPO/-AO/-NAO, then the entire northern tier of the lower 48 would get cold….assuming the EPO ridge gets poleward enough to tap cross-polar flow
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We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now
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I absolutely believe it. Front-loaded, classic canonical Niña December. Literally everything and I mean everything, atmospheric and oceanic is 100% La Niña. SOI, ENSO SSTs, subsurface, ONI/RONI, enhanced trade winds/EWBs, -PDO, OLR, -IOD, global longwave pattern, -PMM, MJO behavior, -AAM (about to tank negative again). All La Nina. No reason to doubt it or question it. Textbook canonical La Niña winter inbound….
