snowman19

It’s pretty uncanny (at least so far) how close we’ve been following the 16-17 La Niña evolution….weak Niña, very strong -IOD in the fall, now the “under the radar” EWB and SOI spike right around the same times in January. Then the big WWB afterwards and total La Niña collapse….assuming this one (WWB) ends up being comparable to 2017. This latest EWB and SOI spike definitely did some damage though, huge SST drop in region 3.4 with the upwelling and there’s real healthy tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts

The GFS “blizzard” yesterday was a real leg slapper lol Go with the EPS :-)

The GFS is a pure, unadulterated garbage model. By far, the worst of the worst. NWS should stop running it until it gets fixed. Complete and utter embarrassment of a model

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS EDIT: GEPS not robust at all

Hi! Remember this doozy from you back on December 19, 2010:

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in?

Well that does it….DT is “woofing” about a Miller A KU up the coast next week. When he does that, he dooms it. I don’t know who’s the bigger kiss of death….him, Moregarbage, or JB

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

That MEI number is proof of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) La Niña

My question is this….Are we possibly missing an elephant in the room here? I think there is another underlying reason other than the virtually nonexistent STJ (from La Niñas) that the last couple of winters have had a total lack of “KU”, coastal bombs in this region….the Gulf Stream. Look at how anomalously far south/east and well off shore it has been….it pushes the baroclinic zone way far east and south. Also, the unusual, very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east, well off shore along the displaced Gulf Stream

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?

The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a rapid, total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @GaWx @PhiEaglesfan712

I’m becoming very confident that there is going to be a SE ridge for February, the question will be how much of a SE ridge that month?

The risk I see is that the -EPO ridge sets up too far to the west (post 1/20) and causes a trough over the west coast

Yea, I would expect a different story in New England since you guys do better in Nina’s

At least in my area, there have really been no blockbuster February’s for snow during La Nina’s going all the way back to the 1950’s. Really the only lone exception was 2013-14, but that was cold-neutral not La Niña. March however is a different story….

This is showing a strong SE ridge signal for February:

I was just thinking the same thing. At least for my area (35 miles NW of NYC), there have been some epic March’s for snowfall and cold during -ENSO/La Niña (i.e. 2018). February though? Not so much

Not a clue yet. Wayyyy too early

No one in their right mind is going to argue that this Niña isn’t collapsing or that we aren’t going to see a substantial El Niño develop this spring, granted. My issue is this fantasy going around twitter (NOT saying Webb is saying this) that a full blown El Niño pattern is going to take over by February. That wishcast is going to go down in flames and it’s completely preposterous. It takes months for the atmosphere to flip from one completely different ENSO state to another. There is always a lag of months, no matter what. And it’s not going to reach the El Niño threshold (+0.5C) in region 3.4 until probably late spring, if not early summer

100%. The STJ has been virtually non existent so far. Definitely one (top) factor, the other being the very southward displaced Gulf Stream and very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east along the anomalously displaced Gulf Stream