snowman19

This may explain why the 6z EURO flip flops:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening

Every single IOD event (negative or positive) in history has weakened in December. It peaks in October/November then weakens in December. This is perfectly normal climo, no matter how strong the event peaks, every one of them has done this

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now.

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

They have seen cold all the way into Florida in many past La Niña Decembers lol

It is absolutely a typical Niña. They all usually peak in December and then start weakening. It’s cooling right now and is at -0.7C. It probably peaks within the next couple of weeks then starts weakening toward cold-neutral. That would fit climo perfectly for a normal La Niña event

@40/70 Benchmark What is the RONI out of curiosity? I’m assuming the Niña is about to peak soon (within the next couple of weeks?)….OISST has started cooling again, it’s around -0.7C right now

If you are correct about a 1989-90 turnaround, that would be astounding. 89-90 saw the biggest, most dramatic pattern flip in the last 50 years. We went from an ice cold arctic tundra in November and December to palm trees sprouting in January and February….

As I’ve learned and I’m sure many others have…..They are going with persistence forecasting, which is really not advisable at all. When you do that, you are just assuming that a pattern is going to continue and models are all wrong and are just going to keep correcting to cold without any end or breaks. Persistence forecasting works until it doesn’t. Those guys are basically saying “yea, the models have been wrong so far and the pattern hasn’t broken yet, so we are just going to keep forecasting the status quo (cold) indefinitely, no matter what the forcing may do, no matter what in the long wave pattern changes and no matter what the models may show, we don’t care”. Not only unprofessional for mets, but a very bad idea and if it fails, you totally lose credibility and trust

As much as I get accused of being “warm biased”, which may certainly be true, the same cast of characters have been trying to force KU’s/major snowstorms up the east coast, I-95 corridor since the 2022-23 winter….4 winters in a row now. Literally since December, 2022, it’s always the same voices saying to just wait, a major I-95 snowstorm pattern is right around the corner. It goes both ways

Kind of like how the typical snow crew here has been wrong about KU’s/major snowstorms hitting the east coast, I-95 corridor every winter since the 2022-23 winter. Going on 4 in a row now…..

Like @donsutherland1 always says, not even worth looking at the CFS until you are into the final few days of the month, when it actually gets a semblance of having a clue about the following month. That said, in this climate, actually getting 4 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) in a row to all be below normal for temps, would be an extremely tall order….

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response

As far as February being canonical Niña? Nope and if I do change it, it won’t be until we are into January

Day 14 on the operational 18z GFS

Posted about it this morning, but IMO a relaxation of the cold is looking like a very real possibility starting around 12/20. I also see nothing at all to support I-95 corridor snowstorms (nor’easters) for at least the next 14+ days

I’m starting to think around 12/20 there is a relaxation of the cold. Before I get attacked, no, I’m not saying torch. Just want to make that clear because as soon as you say “relaxation” of cold, some people automatically think torch, I’m definitely not saying that but I do think there is going to be a relaxation. I also think the pattern over the next 14 days, at the very least and real likely longer than that, is going to be extremely hostile to I-95 corridor snowstorms. Clippers? Sure. Overrunning? Sure. But classic east coast snowstorms/nor’easters? Color me very skeptical

The new HRRR and RAP on Pivotal are showing 0.1 and 0.2 of snow respectively and no freezing rain in the metro overnight. HRDPS isn’t showing anything and neither is the RRFS

The EURO AI flip flops like a fish out of water. It went from showing a non stop arctic tundra this month to showing this by 12/19:

That big SOI drop/strong -SOI correlation to strengthening the STJ only works during El Niños, not La Nina’s. Unfortunately many years ago, JB spread the completely false narrative that big SOI drops, no matter what the ENSO state, result in an energized southern stream (STJ) and east coast storms and it got taken for fact and people ran with it…

Several years ago HM did a write up on this. There is a SOI correlation, but it’s during El Niños only. As I’m sure you already know, the STJ is driven by thunderstorms in the tropics and the polar jet is driven by temperature contrasts. Strong -SOI enhances Nino related thunderstorm activity in the tropics and subsequently strengthens the STJ, which is already beefed up by the standing wave El Niño convection on the equator. When there is a big drop in the SOI, the southern stream gets enhanced and the chances for east coast storm activity goes way up afterwards. This does not apply during La Nina’s. Many years ago, JB decided to incorrectly apply and hype big SOI drops to corresponding to STJ/southern stream enhancement, east coast storms and arctic outbreaks during La Nina’s and it was taken to be fact by the weenies and I guess even by some mets… @donsutherland1 Any stats on this?

Yes, that SOI correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niña’s. Unfortunately JB spread false info about it years ago and many people (apparently even some mets) believed him

Mike is completely wrong about big SOI drops in winter corresponding to strengthening/energizing the STJ and causing big east coast snow storms and arctic outbreaks. That correlation only works during El Niños, not during La Niñas. So Mike is spreading false info just like JB does for likes, follows, attention, retweets and subscribers. He may want to actually research the SOI correlation before he goes posting nonsense about it on twitter And furthermore, he’s dead wrong about another thing, we have not been seeing classic split-flow. That is an El Niño feature where the jet splits into 2 branches off the west coast with a dominant southern stream (STJ) and a very weak polar jet. We have a very dominant northern branch and a very muted southern branch, typical of a Niña. That tweet was full of fake news and reads like a New York Post article