snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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FWIW, Judah updated his SPV blog for anyone interested:
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Flurries/on and off snow showers in Sloatsburg. Nothing sticking anywhere. 35 degrees
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I mean, he totally went against what the EURO weeklies and the other ensembles were showing run after run for early December and if that should actually happen, maybe he’s onto something?
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https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989372780652237091?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989823502162301098?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
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Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10
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Region 4. Looks basin-wide
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Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)
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Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area
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DT warned yesterday that the MJO push into phase 8 is looking like it’s going to be delayed…
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IF (If) the GEFS, EPS and GEPS are correct in how far west the ridge is going to set up (Bering Sea/Aleutians) in the long range, then yep, they are underestimating the SE ridge
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@Gawx Sunspots over 110 so far this month. Very high geomag continuing as well, as has been the case since solar activity picked back up in August. If this follows the trend you found since 1979, this is very likely to be a +NAO winter
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That storm and the afternoon snowstorm just before St. Patrick’s Day back in March, 2018 were the hardest I ever saw it snow in my life. Both were literal whiteouts for hours
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The 2011-12 winter had a +PNA for both December and January…that’s a surprise. I thought that was a predominant -PNA winter
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Completely agree. I see the December, 1983 talk by some as being equally ridiculous….volcanic stratosphere from a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before, +QBO, +PDO
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The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….
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It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably
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Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two
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I agree. He’s trying to hype it into a KU coastal storm pattern up the east coast. I don’t know what in the heck he’s looking at
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An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?
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The beginning of November through the end of March is totally insufferable on X. The usual suspects are always looking for subscription money, clout, likes, follows, views and retweets from the east coast weenies. Every L on the weather maps gets hyped into the Blizzard of 1996 and every cold outbreak gets hyped into turning the east coast into an arctic tundra like The Day After Tomorrow. Year after year, you can set your watch to it. It’s sad
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@40/70 Benchmark EPS is showing your -PNA idea starting at the tail end of the month going into December
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FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:
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I took BAMWX’s word for it. Lol I guess they are mistaken?
