snowman19
-
Posts
9,517 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
Hail and heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Wind gusts easily over 50mph. Saw towering cumulus congestus just before it started. No lightning or thunder here yet
-
@40/70 Benchmark Judah agrees with you
-
-
I mean your forecast looks very good so far. Mid-January aside, the twitter fantasy that this is a carbon copy of last year at this time and that we are about to go right back into an exact replica of the start of January last year, is completely absurd
-
I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
-
The modeling (ensembles/operationals) this afternoon is showing a decidedly east-based -NAO going into the beginning of January, also still holding on to the -PNA as well. If the true east-based -NAO is correct, it would be quite the change from what we have seen over the last 10 years or so with -NAO’s,
-
Yes. Late developing Miller B’s (which very strongly favor New England) with that look? Sure. Juiced Miller A KU’s coming up out of the Gulf and burying the I-95 corridor BAL-DC-PHL-NYC, which is what BAMWX was insinuating? No way
-
As depicted, that is not a classic KU, blockbuster coastal storm pattern as they claim. Where’s the +PNA to force meridional flow? BAMWX is all about getting clout/attention, likes, follows, subscription money, views and retweets
-
I think part of what helped December, 2010 was El Nino “hangover” from the very healthy Nino the winter before, so you still had some semblance of a southern stream/STJ around at that point
-
Especially given the -PNA and the very amplified PAC jet crashing into the PAC NW, that would make sense (omega ridge rolled over further east from the dead center of the CONUS position) that the models show right now
-
Chris, are there even any analogs for what the models are projecting for next week into the first few days of January? It’s extremely anomalous like you said…huge Aleutian ridge (-WPO), out of phase +EPO, strong -PNA, -NAO, neutral/negative AO and a massive omega ridge/omega block dead center of the CONUS?
-
The upcoming -NAO (Christmas week into New Year’s week) is projected to be east-based, in addition, the PAC looks like straight garbage and you have a huge omega ridge dead center of the CONUS, an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) with a +EPO and a very strong -PNA. So if you are looking to stay cool and avoid a “torch” in the east, that will work out fine then, the -NAO will keep the east cool, no “torch”. If you are looking for east coast snowstorms/nor’easters, it looks absolutely awful
-
I’m not seeing a way out (yet) from a canonical Niña February, I’ll reserve my final opinion once we are into January. That said, if there is in fact a major SSWE in February like you think there will be, with the lag, I would think that would/could affect March more so than February, especially if it occurs closer to mid-February (i.e. 2018)
-
It’s an east-based -NAO
-
We are and have been in a classic, canonical La Niña pattern since September 1st. It’s been fitting a “front-end loaded” Niña to a tee up to this point in time…..
-
At least you said it. I saw them but wasn’t going to mention it. Didn’t want to start anything. But since you brought it up, verbatim, they look like January, 1990. No exaggeration, they are extremely ugly
-
I believe @bluewave discussed the possibility of that happening (SE ridge hooking up with the -NAO) last week. A -PNA would definitely make that possibility more likely as you said
-
I wasn’t born yet lol but looking back on the weather history, the 1989-90 winter was probably (easily) the most extreme pattern flip we’ve seen in the last 50 years. We went from a record cold arctic tundra starting in November right through the end of December, then got a big cutter on New Year’s Eve and that was all she wrote, light switch flip to an unmitigated torch for all of January and February….
-
The Niña is going to reach its peak soon. This is the coldest reading in region 3.4 we’ve seen for this entire event
-
The 1989-90 winter saw what was probably the biggest complete pattern flip in the last 50+ years. We went from a record cold arctic ice box from November through the end of December, then there was a big cutter on New Year’s Eve and a light switch flip to a full on torch for all of January and February
-
Interesting stats. I think what saved 2016-17 was the +PDO and the Nino “hangover”. Had the PDO been negative that winter, I think the results may have been different….just my opinion. It was also almost a 2nd year El Niño….the strong -IOD caused the La Niña to develop, had it not been for that, I have no doubt that would have been a double dip El Niño
-
@40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 La Nina peaking within the next 2 weeks or so?
-
NYC area final totals from yesterday’s storm
-
Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area
snowman19 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Yep. I was wrong, will gladly admit it. I never thought the trough would end up going neutral tilt. Congrats on the snow everyone -
Ok Rain Man lol
