snowman19

@GaWx I’m not sure exactly what it’s going to do, but my educated guess is that it affects MJO behavior, actual specifics? I’m not sure yet. I also think it is going to constructively interfere with the La Niña and enhance atmospheric coupling

I think the biggest issue is the record strong -IOD event ongoing. Just posted on this earlier. That is definitely going to have global consequences in how the forcing goes, December in particular. You aren’t going to have an event this strong and not effect the tropical forcing patterns, especially in the early part of met winter

Lowest since 2012 in that part of the arctic….

Per the latest SST maps, the cooling in the western IO is still going strong, along with warming in the eastern part. My guess is that it bottoms out/peaks within the next 2 weeks either very close to, or at -2 on the weekly numbers. If so, this will be one of the strongest -IOD events in history….

Besides the “blob” situation, a pronounced -PMM has developed as well

If this is correct and it appears to be, this -IOD may be getting down to -2. Would be record breaking and have a very substantial impact on the global forcing

Nice trolling as usual. Which is pretty much what I’d expect from you since you’re totally useless for anything else in this thread

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

I agree. How many times over the last few years have we fell for believing long range model projections that the MJO is going to barrel right through phases 7-8-1 with amplitude only to get burned? Time and again. We are talking about model projections for a month away. It couldn’t even do it when there was an El Niño in 2023-24. I’m not saying it can’t happen but until I see more evidence that it’s actually going to happen in real time color me skeptical. This is a rather healthy La Niña/-IOD atmospherically and oceanically. As the old saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week….. @GaWx

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

I have no doubt that the MJO gets into phase 6. My question is, what happens when it gets into phase 7? As we have seen time and time again over the years, the models inaccurately project it barreling right through phase 7, 8 and 1 with amplitude only to be have it die in phase 7. Definitely something to watch going forward later on in November @bluewave

Another AAM tanking appears imminent And I’m laughing at some of these winter forecasts I’m seeing on Twitter that are using solar minimum/low geomag years as analogs and calling for big time -AO/-NAO blocking

Yea all IOD events, positive or negative always neutralize during winter but this is one is quite the milestone, strongest -IOD event since 2000….

“The next few days will see a polar vortex strengthen due to less solar radiation. However, to date it seems temporary with a zonal deceleration towards December. The eQBO maintains a weak polar vortex, but without support from the EPflux with Eddys momentum and heat fluxes, it will be difficult to get cold in the mid-latitudes. In this case, the MJO or tropical convention will play a key role in the dynamics of heat fluxes in the polar vortex if it propagates towards the Pacific with good amplitude in December. A W1 pattern over the Pacific seems likely with December. Obviously, if the MJO does not propagate over the Pacific Ocean, there will be no convergent heat fluxes that make the PV weak, and this will be a problem.”: “A negative QBO phase always lifts hopes for mid-latitude winter cold enthusiasts, owing to its influence on the stratospheric PV. But the QBO's links to surface weather are not simple. Perhaps surprisingly, during La Niña a -QBO is warmer than a +QBO in early winter in N Europe”:

These are the actual current anomalies, they have cooled but are still pretty warm

I actually have bothered to look smart guy. It warmed back up in early November back then. I love how you suddenly appear here with insults after contributing absolutely nothing to this thread since it began. One of those who only posts from November through the end of March then disappears

Wouldn’t you consider that one more of a subtropical storm rather than a purely extratropical one though? It definitely had subtropical characteristics

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century

My point, again, only focusing on SSTs is that back in 2013, the areas that are and have been cooling now (GOA, along the west coast and off Baja) were warming very quickly at this time back then

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

I don’t care what it sees in day to day noise. I’m talking about the overall stratospheric picture going into November here, there is an absence of upward wave fluxes causing warmings and there is zero evidence of any top-down warmings coming. Given those facts, if that’s correct, and it appears to be, the SPV is going to cool and strengthen

Day to day SPV forecast changes aside, I’m not seeing a mechanism (yet) that will force the SPV to stay weak next month Side note: @Bluewave The impressive +SOI run continues, and some MJO musings:

Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle