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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based From @csnavywx “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”
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  3. snowman19
    I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August
  4. snowman19
    All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:
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    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
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  8. snowman19
    Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD
  9. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:
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  11. snowman19
    Very good job by the modeling of predicting this big WWB well in advance just like they did back in April:
  12. snowman19
    Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken
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  14. snowman19
    As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch
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  17. snowman19
    No, this does not look like 2015 at all. It was never this east-based Here is what Paul Roundy has to say; @forkyfork
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  22. snowman19
    Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line. All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.” ^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event “A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”
  23. snowman19
    Agreed
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