snowman19

One thing I’m extremely confident in is that we don’t see 5 winter months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) in a row go below normal for temps. I do think January ends up being another below normal month, which would make 3 in a row since Nov. IMO no way in hell do both Feb and Mar also end up below normal. The only La Niña that did that in the last 30+ years was 1995-96 and that was well before CC hit

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England

Maybe there is some truth to the old saying “drought begets drought”. We have been stuck in this dryness/drought cycle since the tail end of summer, 2024. I don’t see it breaking until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December in the NYC metro area. This winter pattern is just following the ongoing, overall theme of dryness, where storms either disappear or underperform with lower QPF than expected as we get closer in time. Just following the overall drought cycle. New tweet from NWS Upton:

Just mentioned this in the ENSO thread, but this pattern is following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December:

While I have no problem with going +PNA the rest of this month, I completely disagree that it goes into February. I see February as a -PNA dominated month

One thing I’m real confident in is that February is going to be predominantly -PNA/RNA. I do not buy for one second that February is going to be +PNA and I don’t think you or @SnowGoose69 do either. I see a very strong -PNA signal for next month and I think it flips or at the very least starts to flip to RNA in the final few days of this month

I guess maybe you missed the part where I was only speaking in terms of ENSO, not any of the other stuff you mentioned? @GaWx Ummm no, that is not what I was implying at all. I’ll say it again, I was speaking only of the ENSO evolution

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either @donsutherland1 EDIT: GEPS held serve @MJO812 Your wishcasting isn’t going to turn this into a snowstorm

It’s pretty uncanny (at least so far) how close we’ve been following the 16-17 La Niña evolution….weak Niña, very strong -IOD in the fall, now the “under the radar” EWB and SOI spike right around the same times in January. Then the big WWB afterwards and total La Niña collapse….assuming this one (WWB) ends up being comparable to 2017. This latest EWB and SOI spike definitely did some damage though, huge SST drop in region 3.4 with the upwelling and there’s real healthy tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts

The GFS “blizzard” yesterday was a real leg slapper lol Go with the EPS :-)

The GFS is a pure, unadulterated garbage model. By far, the worst of the worst. NWS should stop running it until it gets fixed. Complete and utter embarrassment of a model

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

EPS and GEFS definitely not as robust as the operationals, neither is the EURO AI. Waiting on GEPS EDIT: GEPS not robust at all

Hi! Remember this doozy from you back on December 19, 2010:

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in?

Well that does it….DT is “woofing” about a Miller A KU up the coast next week. When he does that, he dooms it. I don’t know who’s the bigger kiss of death….him, Moregarbage, or JB

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

That MEI number is proof of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) La Niña

My question is this….Are we possibly missing an elephant in the room here? I think there is another underlying reason other than the virtually nonexistent STJ (from La Niñas) that the last couple of winters have had a total lack of “KU”, coastal bombs in this region….the Gulf Stream. Look at how anomalously far south/east and well off shore it has been….it pushes the baroclinic zone way far east and south. Also, the unusual, very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east, well off shore along the displaced Gulf Stream

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?

The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a rapid, total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @GaWx @PhiEaglesfan712