snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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As a general rule with La Niña winters, if there’s below average snow in November and December, they end up being dud winters. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, November and December set the tone for the rest of winter with a La Niña
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Bottom line, even though there wasn’t a ridiculous amount of arctic sea ice loss this spring/summer/early met fall, our starting point at the beginning of melt season was so low, we are still finishing at record low levels this year. God knows how many years it will take, when/if we get back to normal. Whether the arctic sea ice loss is related to SSTs or solar or both is anyone’s guess
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@Bluewave Once again, tropical forcing staying in the IO and the Maritime Continent regions…..
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2011-12 didn’t turn into an all out disaster until the end of November. A few days after Thanksgiving that massive Bering Sea vortex developed and just sat and spun there for months on end…right through April. It was one of the most persistent patterns I’ve ever seen. There was damn near close to consensus on east having another cold and snowy winter and all those forecasts busted horribly
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Models have completely backed off on any Atlantic tropical threats for the next 2+ weeks. We are starting to approach the point where we are going to have to accept that this may end up being a below normal season (ACE/named storms) despite the La Niña
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The fact that the EURO is seeing it now speaks volumes. It’s finally showing a La Niña, the last to the party as always with its extreme ENSO warm bias
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There is very good support this time for a big shakeup in the pattern by October. Projected tropical forcing/MJO, -ENSO, -PDO, -IOD. I am becoming increasingly confident that October is very likely to be warmer to much warmer than normal….also potentially much drier than normal as well
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This is a good point….Given the background climate change/AGW, have we entered the “new” -AMO cycle, which would explain the anemic Atlantic hurricane season? In the past, before CC really kicked in, cold North Atlantic SSTs (like we have now) was a staple of -AMO cycles. Just food for thought
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There is growing evidence that we may see a big shakeup and complete pattern flip by October to much warmer than normal and possibly much drier than normal as well. @Stormchaserchuck1 warned of this weeks ago….-PDO/-ENSO October correlation. The -IOD is magnifying those effects
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The UKMO has actually been doing very well. Curious to see what it shows when it updates
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Lol That’s an Aleutian ridge not an Alaskan ridge
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https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast @Gawx The active high solar, geomag continues:
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Normal rainfall for NYC in September is 3.7 inches, which didn’t happen tonight. Nor did tonight even make so much as a dent in the big long term deficit (most important) since August 1st
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It’s starting to look increasingly likely that the recent prolonged cool spell isn’t going continue into late month. If this is indeed where we are headed, given how extremely dry it’s been, we will be facing major drought conditions like we did last fall
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Are we jumping the gun on the ENSO state being La Niña? No
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Don’t worry. By mid-November he will be right to very cold and snowy for the east coast. Severe cold cold snow from Thanksgiving until till New Year’s, “December to remember”
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Ok
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@DonSutherland1 We are in a “grand solar minimum”. Lmfaooo Last year they were saying we were in a -QBO. The mis-information on twitter is hilarious [emoji23]
