snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Maintaining a snowpack in early-mid February is generally easy as long as temps aren’t way above freezing. Once we get to 2/21 and beyond, you start to get daytime/sun melt even when temps are below freezing
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If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important
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Even if the stratosphere doesn’t work out this month you have nothing to be upset about. You did a great job since November and were extremely accurate up to this point in time. If it doesn’t work out then oh well, you got the last 3+ months right
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Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?
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He’s the biggest moron I’ve ever come across in my life. Hands down. If you put his brain in a bird it would fly backwards and upside down
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If this was a couple of weeks from now, today’s temps would have overperformed by even more. Post 2/20 is when full sun and lack of CAA really starts to have an effect
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February as a whole is extremely likely to be another below normal temp month. That’s pretty much guaranteed at this point. As far as that extreme Wxbell/JB forecast? Done for clicks and subscription money from the weenies
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The CPC has had the 2/1 - 2/13 period as drier than normal for awhile now
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Keep an eye out for Judah Cohen’s new blog today. He’s doing an extensive write up on the stratosphere and it’s getting released to the public later on today. The link will be on his twitter
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This overall dry pattern has been persistent as hell for quite awhile now (started back in the fall of 2024). We’ve basically seen relentless cold with very few breaks since the end of November but the dryness has continued. The only real exception was last weekend
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Really with the lone exception of last weekend, we have been in a dry pattern since the end of November. A very persistent cold pattern for sure but also an overall dry one
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Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!
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Judah Cohen thinks one more SPV stretch this week then a Canadian warming
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The models really want to tank the PNA after the 10th. I know Ray expected that….
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It does not take until the end of March to start to get hostile for big NYC snowstorms. Look at climo. Once you get to 2/21, the number of big snowstorms in NYC starts a pronounced drop off. Once you get to 3/1, the number really starts to drop off. I’m not saying it can’t snow, that would be ridiculous, but the number of big snowstorms in NYC absolutely starts dropping on 2/21 and it starts dropping off even more rapidly on 3/1
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Welp, my idea of turning milder in February is obviously going to bust horribly. Congrats @40/70 Benchmark What I’m still pretty confident in is that February is very likely not to be a blockbuster snow month, at least in my area (NYC metro). I looked back at all the La Niña winters to 1979 in my area and none of them had blockbuster February’s for snow, even 1996, January was the really big snow month that winter. The only cool ENSO winter that had a really big February for snow in the last 47 years was 2013-14 but that was just cold-neutral and never actually reached La Niña levels like this one did
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It doesn’t start to get hostile for snow here until 2/21. “Prime” snow season for our area is 12/20 - 2/20
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There are a lot of unknowns/uncertainty about the projected SSW and SPV split:
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It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December
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La Niña did not start fading in December lol @40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol
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It looks like we go back to a northern branch dominated pattern next month like we had in December
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Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….
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ENSO has finally gone up to cold-neutral. Looks like one final burst of easterlies in region 3.4 before it’s totally dead for good. The SOI has finally come down from the severely positive values we saw, but -AAM continuing. The -PDO is still there but obviously well weakened from the ridiculous negative values we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Read your blog and I agree, next month looks -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO. The only thing saving this from going to an early spring is the projected -AO/-NAO and the *possible* SSWE. Whether or not this ends up just a big SPV stretch/wave reflection or it decides to pull a February, 2018 and do a major SSW with a total wind reversal and complete SPV split and coupling with the troposphere; “locking” the -AO/-NAO remains to be seen
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He definitely gets an A+ for effort. If you don’t like what the models show…make your own….
