snowman19

I think the big +PNA streak is about to come to a close. IMO, the tail end of this month and December go -PNA/RNA

The 2010-11 winter was the first and last time I ever heard JB predict an early end to winter. Just before mid-January he posted that all the high latitude blocking was going to completely break down by early February and that winter was going to come to an abrupt end in the east and not come back again. For the most part, he ended up being right

Verbatim, it’s showing a -PNA/RNA. If it’s correct with the -EPO/-AO/-NAO, then the entire northern tier of the lower 48 would get cold….assuming the EPO ridge gets poleward enough to tap cross-polar flow

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

I absolutely believe it. Front-loaded, classic canonical Niña December. Literally everything and I mean everything, atmospheric and oceanic is 100% La Niña. SOI, ENSO SSTs, subsurface, ONI/RONI, enhanced trade winds/EWBs, -PDO, OLR, -IOD, global longwave pattern, -PMM, MJO behavior, -AAM (about to tank negative again). All La Nina. No reason to doubt it or question it. Textbook canonical La Niña winter inbound….

Now you can read minds? Wow just wow. If you have “meltdowns” over the weather you need to check yourself into a psych ward

Roundy’s plots look good for the tail end of this month into early-mid December. You won’t like what they show for mid-late December however. Stadiumwave mentioned that fact last week

In other news, the -IOD definitely peaked last week as expected by BOM (almost -2) and is starting to bump up again….ended up being strongest negative event since the fall of 1996. And it seems we have westward moving ER waves from the La Niña interfering with the MJO’s eastward propagation

Ut oh! Permanent, non-stop massive Greenland blocking from December 1st until March 31st!! 1995-96, 2010-11 redux! Lol

True, that’s another difference…+QBO back in 2010

It’s possible I’m mistaken? But I thought that happened last December? Maybe it was the year before?

I mean @PhiEaglesfan712 has a point with that 2010 Niña being much stronger. That aside, back in 2010 when HM was still active on here, he perfectly called the massive -NAO/-AO blocking more than a month before it even happened. He blamed it directly on the solar minimum with very low geomag that was in place, he said the blocking and stratospheric/tropospheric coupling would not have developed without it…..

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

1995 and 2010 were also solar minimums

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

The extremely persistent -AAM continues….it simply doesn’t get anymore “La Niña” than we are now….

Soaring +SOI, cooling subsurface (-3C) and surface SSTs, constructive interference with the -IOD/-PDO and the continued enhanced trades/EWBs in the CPAC leads me to believe this event doesn’t peak until either the tail end of this month or more likely early-mid December. As I said yesterday….a very well coupled canonical La Niña system is in place

I agree. We are and have been in a very well coupled La Niña, both atmospherically and oceanically. I see absolutely no evidence at all to expect anything but a canonical La Niña pattern through March. It’s been following the classic La Niña footprint since the start of October and still is. Even if we go cold-neutral come January or February/March, there is no reason to believe the Niña pattern is going to somehow magically just instantly go away. There is always a lag of months between when ENSO phases switch and when you see the effects on the atmosphere

One thing is for sure, this La Niña is and has been exactly mimicking a classic canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. I see absolutely no reason to think it’s going to deviate at all from such in the coming months

The strongest -IOD since 1996 is earth-shattering

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

@Bluewave

I was going to say it’s been a long time since we’ve seen this much cooling in the NE PAC and it’s still ongoing