snowman19

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

For anyone interested, Hurricane Hunter recon flights are going out again this afternoon and the data they collect will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight. The number/scope of weather balloon launches across the CONUS will also remain increased this afternoon and that data will also be in the new runs at 0z

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place. We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours

The WPC just issued a new disco on the “north trends”, here’s what they have to say, worth the read. I think there may be some big shifts tomorrow once everything is sampled in the new model runs and more balloon launches start and recon flights begin. WPC:

I would wait until Thursday when the players are actually on the field and all the models get the new data. I’m sure weather balloon launches will increase and recon flights will definitely be in the air on Thursday. I call BS on the EURO. Suppression is a very real threat

A cutter with a 1050mb Siberian High and unmodified arctic air/confluence pressing down?! Lmfaooo I’ve seen it all now. The threat is suppression, not cut, not even close

@Gawx

@Gawx Thoughts:

You have no idea what you’re talking about

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

Yes. I agree. I think the window.Is 1/28-2/1. If (IF) the long range modeling is correct. Then after 2/1 I, think the EPO floodgates open and entire CONUS goes mild for awhile

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

Ratios are going to be lower than 10:1 tomorrow, but it looks good for an inch or so in the immediate NYC metro area, more in eastern Long Island. Highs are going to be in the mid-30’s even up here where I am tomorrow

You’re funny. You’ve been declaring the La Niña dead and buried since December. Ever since you made your arrogant “You know the Niña is dead?” post just over a week ago, it’s been doing nothing but strengthening, strongest of the entire event actually….the SOI is up to almost +28 today, there was a big EWB, region 3.4 is still at -0.8C (dropped to -0.9C a few days ago) and it looks healthier than ever in region 3.4 on the new SST charts. Keep up the great work!

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave The SOI just jumped up to +21.96 Region 3.4 still below -0.8C Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps -AAM continuing RONI dropped Huge EWB just over a week ago But the La Niña is dead and buried!

Way out there, but next weekend looks like a possible SWFE. Those normally favor New England but it’s going to be many days before we start to get a clearer picture of what’s going to happen….

You really need to stop this. Stop with the wishcasting and false information/lies. It’s not fair to the members who don’t have access to the models and come on here to get correct info. The EURO is NOT showing 2-3 inches in NYC on Saturday, it barely has over an inch and that’s at 10:1 ratios….the ratios on Saturday are going to be lower than 10:1