snowman19

Here’s the winter outlook from Earthlight (John Homenuk) who used to be really active on these forums: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

48 degrees in the arctic in November. Scary

Agreed, kind of hard to be worse than last winter....

01-02 wasn’t really ugly looking until the early fall, record high solar flux hit....

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post

I remember back at this time in 2002 when literally every sign was pointing to an epic winter and it turned out to be just that. This year, everything is pointing to a dud...a huge dud. The strong basin-wide La Niña we have with the coldest anomalies moving westward to region 3.4 instead of region 1+2, coldest ENSO region 4 in over 10 years, +QBO, negative PDO, current negative PNA/RNA regime cooling the SSTs in the GOA and off the western North American coast, massive amounts of wildfire smoke getting pumped into the stratosphere since the summer, record low arctic sea ice, the SPV showing signs of being strong as hell and coupling with the TPV, the North Atlantic SST configuration is absolutely horrible for promoting negative NAO, AGW, torched SSTs along and off the entire east coast, positively feeding back into the SE Ridge and WAR, not a fan of using it, but Eurasian snowcover as of this month is the lowest it’s been in the last 15+ years. Literally the only “plus”, if you want to call it that, is the low solar cycle/solar minimum we are in, but the solar argument has proven itself to be complete snake oil and false hope over the last several winters

If BAMWX is correct, December is in big trouble. The analog set they are expecting all featured a horrific PAC side....flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, also favoring +NAO, +AO

Nothing at this time point and time even remotely resembles 2010, this year is in a different universe

If we go into December with a continuation of this pattern, it would be a really bad sign. La Niña’s that have mild December’s with less snow than average, historically bode very, very poorly for the rest of winter

Yep and it looks like a strong GOA vortex develops, those warm SST anomalies there and off the west coast are going to drop in a hurry. Good call on your part

@Allsnow Here comes the cooling SSTs in the GOA and off the west coast of North America that you were worried about....

We still might. Just saying what the Euro shows, doesn’t mean it’s definitely happening. Still a possibility

The Euro seasonal actually shows a -NAO in December but it’s ruined with a God awful PAC side at the same time....has a huge vortex over AK/++EPO. All the -NAO would do in that case is bring down junk PAC air. If the Euro is wrong about the PAC being that bad, then December would be the best shot at being the wintry month, it shows the next 3 months (Jan-Mar) after with just raging +NAO and +AO. There is some support for a -NAO in December, question will be how bad is the PAC at that point?

This is potentially the strongest La Niña we’ve had in over 30 years (88-89). Pretty amazing that we’ve gone this long without a very strong La Niña.....

Huh? This La Niña is fully coupled with the atmosphere, it’s been very well coupled for over a month. What are you talking about?

There are hints that the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex’s may start coupling come early December, a very bad sign

The last long stretch of horrible winters was 1979-1992. We’ve been pretty lucky ever since then, especially the period from 2000-2015.....

Just stating fact, nowhere did I hope for anything. Please stop derailing this thread with your conspiracy theories.

The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster

Think another issue is the massive amount of wildfire smoke that got pumped into the stratosphere, that would also promote +AO

At least Larry’s got Henry Margusity on his side, always a plus.....

It would lend support to the models showing a very strong La Niña come December

The CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of very strong easterlies over the ENSO regions starting in mid to late November. This would support more robust La Niña strengthening going into December

If the CFS is correct, very strong easterlies return across the ENSO regions in mid to late November, this would support another robust round of La Niña strengthening