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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yep, this is quickly becoming a very minor event, especially NW of NYC. None of the new model runs have more than 2-3 inches total for my area now. The NAM is on drugs
  2. snowman19
    The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC
  3. snowman19
    I think this one is done coming NW, the models are coming back from the overcorrect. You had the suppression earlier on in the week which was dead wrong, then the models corrected when they realized they underestimated the SE Ridge, we saw an overcorrection yesterday and this morning, now they have evened out, the RGEM just came east from its far west track earlier. I can easily see an eastern NYC and LI jackpot here. The 18z RGEM is actually matching up very well with the 12z EPS. I really don’t see this one becoming a NW suburb (Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, northern Westchester, Sussex, Sullivan) jackpot. NAM is too far west. Outlier
  4. snowman19
    No Winter Storm Watch from Upton for Rockland, Orange, Northern Westchester or Passaic, or western Bergen County. They are calling for a very quick mover, 7am-2pm, 3-5 inches of snow total in my area (Rockland)
  5. snowman19
    We aren’t going to see the same rates as the last storm and this thing is flying. 10-18 inches is a ludicrous forecast, also 13:1 or higher ratios is not happening
  6. snowman19
    I would go 2-6 for the metro, the ridiculousness from some on twitter right now is out of control, this is not a 10-18 inch storm in the metro, no way, I’m sorry. You aren’t getting those kinds of snowfall rates in that very short period of time, we also aren’t seeing 13:1 ratios, that’s silly
  7. snowman19
    There is going to be a limit to how much can fall due to the super fast flow. I think this is a general 2-6 inch snowfall for the metro. The NAM is overdone IMO
  8. snowman19
    It’s basically a coastal scraper. And it’s frigging flying too. This thing is going to have the after burners going lol
  9. snowman19
    I don’t think it’s a big storm, something like 2-6, more towards the coast/LI than inland, but a storm none the less,
  10. snowman19
    It’s going to hit. Look at the t-storms blowing up in the SE, it’s going to pump the ridge and force it north
  11. snowman19
    The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more
  12. snowman19
    You can absolutely have a strong SE ridge along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s totally false, total bunk that a SE Ridge can’t co-exist along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s a fairy tale wishcast that the weenies spread on twitter, they need to start it with “Once upon a time, it’s impossible to have a SE Ridge and a -NAO”
  13. snowman19
    Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO
  14. snowman19
    The Ukie has been God awful this winter, terrible. It is now a huge outlier
  15. snowman19
    Famous last words ;-)
  16. snowman19
    Yea, I knew it was at least 27 inches in Sloatsburg around 10 last night and it was still going at that point. I can definitely believe 30 inches fell here
  17. snowman19
    I’m in Sloatsburg, it’s easily 2 feet here, probably over 2 feet
  18. snowman19
    Easily 2 feet + up here, still light snow, some sleet mixing in now. By far the biggest event since January, 2016. Well over 24 hours of steady snow
  19. snowman19
    They throw them out every storm, January, 1996 too. I made that comment yesterday morning, it looked nothing at all like it does right now yesterday morning
  20. snowman19
    That is approaching January, 2016, February, 2006 territory right there. Hard to believe....
  21. snowman19
    If that’s correct, I feel bad for the guys who plow snow. It’s literally impossible to keep up with that, totally impossible. Hopefully people are smart and stay the hell off the roads so they don’t get stuck and add to the chaos that will be ensuing
  22. snowman19
    If the NAM is correct, there is going to be a ridiculous frontogen band over northern NJ into SE NY tomorrow into tomorrow night. Easily 18”+ I haven’t seen a depiction like that since January, 2016. It looks even more impressive than the March, 2018 blizzard verbatim
  23. snowman19
    If anyone is really expecting the biggest NYC snowstorm ever in history (over 27 inches - January, 2016) this week, they’re probably going to be very sorely disappointed
  24. snowman19
    I think this corrects even further south tonight. The models were too far west and north at 0Z IMO, we just saw the correction from the NAM, I think this continues
  25. snowman19
    This is why the NAM is going bye bye in March. The NWS is retiring it and for good reason
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