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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The new Euro still wants nothing at all to do with Wednesday. It’s less than half an inch of snow area wide, even using 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021120612&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  2. snowman19
    And the SPV has become strong as can be:
  3. snowman19
    We are definitely going to be in the running for a top warmest December in a few weeks from now:
  4. snowman19
    Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model
  5. snowman19
    The new Euro is a complete miss, nothing. Total whiff
  6. snowman19
    The GFS is laughably horrible. It’s been out in left field since Friday. It’s just finally starting to get a clue now. Full cave to the Euro
  7. snowman19
    The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow
  8. snowman19
    Agreed. The zonal flow is way, way too fast for this to really amp or phase. I think the GFS is out to lunch
  9. snowman19
    The new Euro just like the Ukie wants nothing at all to do with Tues/Wed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing
  10. snowman19
    I agree, the GFS is trending to the Ukie and Euro and now the CMC, I expect the ICON will follow later. You were right about the fast flow shearing it.
  11. snowman19
    View any model showing the MJO propagating into phases 7, 8, 1 with extreme skepticism
  12. snowman19
    Agree. I don’t see any evidence that the pattern is just going to do a complete 180 by the beginning of January. So far we have seen failed attempt after failed attempt since early September at the models propagating the MJO to phases 7, 8, 1, which never happened due to the wall of easterlies from the La Niña and we about to see an extreme -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, +AO pattern coming up….this is on the heels of the most positive EPO fall in history and an extreme -PDO/-PMM background state
  13. snowman19
    There is no -NAO block which you ABSOLUTELY need to get a snowstorm here in the metro next week. The SE ridge is going to flex big time along with all the other problems I pointed to earlier. Make no mistake, this will end up north, there’s nothing to stop it, there’s no block. This one is for interior central and northern NE. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..
  14. snowman19
    If you read Eric Webb’s tweet chain I posted before, he explains why the models are incorrect for propagating the MJO wave into phase 7 with the current Niña state. They also propagate it too fast as well as too far. It has been stuck in phases 4-6 since the beginning of September
  15. snowman19
    If we had a -NAO block, this would have been a metro area snowstorm and probably a decent one at that
  16. snowman19
    Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this
  17. snowman19
    We may be stuck in a warm pattern for most of December. The MJO wave is going to run into a wall of easterlies from the Niña and get ripped apart before it can propogate into phase 7. Classic model bias of exaggerating phase 7, which is why they kept going back and forth in the long range
  18. snowman19
    Next week has interior New England and probably interior central and northern New England at that, written all over it. Marginal airmass, no arctic high locked in to the north, -PNA with a big low crashing into the west coast, +AO, neutral NAO, +EPO, neutral WPO, raging PAC jet, super fast flow, no blocking, northern branch shortwave may outrun the southern branch shortwave due to the very fast zonal flow and lack of blocking. It would be the definition of thread the needle and extremely good luck to get anything of significance (snow wise) here in the metro area:
  19. snowman19
    The use of 95-96 as an analog for this winter was preposterous. A wishcast through and through.
  20. snowman19
    It was actually the epic arctic cold and snow pattern that was supposed to lock in the east from Thanksgiving week until the New Year. That was hyped since early September by a certain someone lol Another monumental bust as usual
  21. snowman19
    Very good consensus from this far out:
  22. snowman19
    This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015
  23. snowman19
    Evidence continuing to mount for a well above normal stretch coming up, the SPV problem also there:
  24. snowman19
    Interior northern New England may get something out of it…..
  25. snowman19
    We currently have one of the strongest ENSO standing waves on record:
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