snowman19

It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal .

When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see .

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Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex .

Hi [emoji846] .

Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

Paul Roundy said he believes MJO phases 5-8 will be dominant this winter

Here is some great info with graphics on east-based -NAO’s vs west-based -NAO’s

Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however

@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions

Yes.

It would mitigate the sometime suppressive effects of strong -NAO yes .

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles

The PNA was never supposed to be favorable

Just keep in mind that MJO 8 in December, during a La Niña features a stout -PNA. Also features -AO/-NAO and -EPO/-WPO, which is good, but there probably will be troughing over the west coast

With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA

The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block .

Go back to work. There’s people pooping in the streets there for heaven’s sake .