snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see
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I think there is still a weak Niña in March. Once we get into April I think it’s completely over and we’re ENSO neutral and warming. I would expect that we go weak Nino come summer
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IMO the reason why this Niña is continuing to strengthen is constructive interference with the -IOD. If we had a +IOD right now, I believe it would be destructively interfering with the Niña and it would be nowhere near as strong as it is now. Back in 2016, had it not been for the -IOD event constructively interfering with the developing Niña, I don’t believe we would have ever seen an official Niña that winter
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Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states
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@40/70 BenchmarkYour initial thoughts seem to be pretty good so far, this winter may have to come down to a favorable PAC at times to get anything. Evidence is mounting (high solar flux/high geomag/solar flares, Atlantic SSTs, Modoki Niña, Volcanic effects, +QBO) that the AO/NAO are possibly going to be downright hostile. From HM, re. Volcano’s effects on the stratosphere:
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@40/70 Benchmark
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Here you go…..this would seemingly support your initial thoughts that December is cold then Jan and Feb get torchy. Also has the fall pattern in there….
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Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense
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I’m thinking it’s a November/December peak but regardless, BAMWX has a point about this 3rd year La Niña being the strongest in history. Whether that ultimately matters in the long run, I don’t know. That aside, you and I both agree that we are headed for an El Niño in ‘23-‘24. I think we are finally ENSO neutral/La Nada come April
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@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this? I didn’t realize how far this current 3rd year La Niña event was from the previous “triple dip” events. MEI: ONI:
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Region 1+2 is almost in an El Niño right now. I think it’s abundantly clear where this is all headed for in 2023-2024 and I’m sure a lot of people will be overjoyed
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I don’t think there’s going to be much of a difference between the NYC metro and the mid-Atlantic this coming winter. New England may be a different story
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Yea my guess is still favorable early on. The concern would be how long any favorable PAC would be able to sustain itself given the strong -PDO and this:
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Weatherbell is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the east coast again??? No way I don’t believe it!!! That’s so out of character!! It’s a Niña so I’m sure their analogs are 95-96, 10-11 and March of 1993
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@40/70 Benchmark This is just lending even more support to your idea that the NAO/AO are going to be hostile this winter….solar activity increasing…solar flares, geomag storms….. https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/geomagnetic-storm-watch-us.amp
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At this point I don’t think anyone is expecting a big winter given the current setup nor should they be. You also don’t have 1997 or 2015 with a raging super El Niño inbound where you know the upcoming winter is a total lost cause before it even starts….
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True, I’m more interested in what all this record water vapor does in the stratosphere. It just worked its way into the northern hemisphere:
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We haven’t been able to buy a legit soaking rain since May to save our lives
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I guess we are “due” for a dry cycle. Ever since the last drought broke back in 2002, we have been in a very wet cycle for the past 20 years
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First legit drought in the metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse, soil moisture is low as can be:
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First legit drought in the NYC metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse:
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Region 1+2 is almost in a Nino. #Modoki La Niña
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You can pretty much see exactly where the ridge in the North PAC is going to want to setup this winter lol Those SSTs around the Aleutians are on fire and they are going to positively feedback into the Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridging would not be much of a surprise given the La Niña:
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I don’t think ENSO goes neutral until spring. The Niña should peak moderate around December
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This is disturbing…showing the current dry pattern continuing into Nov-Jan:
