snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Region 1+2 is almost in an El Niño right now. I think it’s abundantly clear where this is all headed for in 2023-2024 and I’m sure a lot of people will be overjoyed
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I don’t think there’s going to be much of a difference between the NYC metro and the mid-Atlantic this coming winter. New England may be a different story
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Yea my guess is still favorable early on. The concern would be how long any favorable PAC would be able to sustain itself given the strong -PDO and this:
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Weatherbell is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the east coast again??? No way I don’t believe it!!! That’s so out of character!! It’s a Niña so I’m sure their analogs are 95-96, 10-11 and March of 1993
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@40/70 Benchmark This is just lending even more support to your idea that the NAO/AO are going to be hostile this winter….solar activity increasing…solar flares, geomag storms….. https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/geomagnetic-storm-watch-us.amp
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At this point I don’t think anyone is expecting a big winter given the current setup nor should they be. You also don’t have 1997 or 2015 with a raging super El Niño inbound where you know the upcoming winter is a total lost cause before it even starts….
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True, I’m more interested in what all this record water vapor does in the stratosphere. It just worked its way into the northern hemisphere:
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We haven’t been able to buy a legit soaking rain since May to save our lives
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I guess we are “due” for a dry cycle. Ever since the last drought broke back in 2002, we have been in a very wet cycle for the past 20 years
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First legit drought in the metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse, soil moisture is low as can be:
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First legit drought in the NYC metro area since 2002 and it’s getting worse:
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Region 1+2 is almost in a Nino. #Modoki La Niña
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You can pretty much see exactly where the ridge in the North PAC is going to want to setup this winter lol Those SSTs around the Aleutians are on fire and they are going to positively feedback into the Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridging would not be much of a surprise given the La Niña:
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I don’t think ENSO goes neutral until spring. The Niña should peak moderate around December
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This is disturbing…showing the current dry pattern continuing into Nov-Jan:
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I’m curious to see if it has typical 1st year “volcanic stratosphere” effects this coming winter in the northern hemisphere or something out of the ordinary happens
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I see how dry you guys are and I honestly don’t know how the NYC metro area isn’t under an official drought by now. Soil moisture is so low right now it’s not funny. Lawns are brown and one of the nearby rivers where I live is so low you can see the bottom, as along as I can remember (almost 30 years) I have never, ever seen this river this low. I used to fish in it as a kid. The dryness up this way has been staggering
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There are some similar analogs to this year (-PDO, Niña, -IOD, +QBO) but they were not 3rd year triple dip Nina’s and not sure of the Niña structure in those, whether or not they were Modoki events like we have now
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@40/70 Benchmark Were the all of the previous 3rd year Nina’s Modoki like this one?
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If you look to the Southern Hemisphere, this may be the first glimpse at the effects of the Tonga Hungarian volcanic eruption and its unprecedented release of water vapor into the stratosphere will have on this upcoming winter in the Northern Hemisphere:
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A little more detail:
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In his defense, a “pro” met (I won’t mention JB’s name) has been predicting a Modoki El Niño for the past 2 years in a row. This year, he got the Modoki part right but it’s just not an El Niño
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Just read on twitter, he’s hyping 1964-1965 too……1954-1955, 1964-1965….and I’m sure 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 next….let’s just find the east coast’s coldest and snowiest official La Niña winters and hype them as being “great analogs” and “perfect matches” to this year. Snake oil salesman. JB is no longer taken seriously by anyone, his game is old. It’s gotten to the point where it’s embarrassing and he should retire. It’s a mockery of meteorology
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I doubt a strong peak too, however, I can easily see this thing peak moderate come December.
