snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it
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In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area
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Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east
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The long range op GFS and twitter has given me over 200 inches of snow so far since November
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As bad as this winter has been so far, I think the infamous “vodka cold” winter of 01-02 was worse. Not only was it virtually snowless, there was no cold at all on our side of the pole from November to March. At least this winter we had the major arctic outbreak in late December, although it was very short lived
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Pray the new GEFS extended are wrong. It shows the pattern going to hell in the opening first couple of days of February. It goes canonical La Niña, flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA trough dumped into the west and massive SE ridge. CFS also just went to a torch for February but take that model for what it is
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The questions are how fast does the cold build up and move east? The other one is, is it just seasonable or actually arctic? The ensembles have different ideas
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West Atlantic Ridge
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@Bluewave pronounced WAR showing up on the long range ensembles. Wonder if it’s being undermodeled in the long range again?
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No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run [emoji23][emoji23]
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That’s a really good question…..is that simply a transitional, transient pattern with the jet retraction that retros and rolls into RNA once into February? Or is it something sustainable?
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There’s a positive feedback loop with the SSTs and that WAR. It’s been a staple for years now and a big reason for non cooperation on the Atlantic side
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I very seriously doubt a +PNA having any staying power. The La Niña is still moderate (Region 3.4 is -1.1C), the SOI is still very high and the trade winds are still anomalously very strong. I can’t imagine the +PNA sticking around long before we go RNA again, especially given Niña climo in February
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And of course the tail end of the month doesn’t look all that cold anymore (I’m sure you’re shocked). Why? Because Canada is still completely flooded with PAC garbage and with no cross polar flow it’s going to take awhile to rebuild the cold.
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Nope, the fact that the possible SSW is falling by the wayside is bad news, that may have been a monkey wrench in the climo Niña February. The +PNA that’s showing up at the tail end of this month with the jet retraction…..yeah, you aren’t sustaining that, not with a moderate La Niña in place, just a matter of time before it retros to the Aleutians and we go RNA. Silver lining is next year is probably El Niño or at least warm-neutral
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
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Pretty amazing, this La Niña won’t give up, Region 3.4 still -1.1C
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I’m still waiting for all the snow and cold you said was coming back in November. I had more fake snow under my Christmas tree than we’ve had in 3 months
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So much for that massive SSW in early February. Nothing to stop a climo Niña month
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Since November, how many of these have actually worked out to give the metro area snow?
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Don’t worry, I have a feeling that backside CCB band is going to end up in New England. Usually those types of setups favor New England
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Also, it looks like the idea of a February SSW is off the table now, that would have possibly….maybe, thrown a monkey wrench into a canonical Niña February but there isn’t good support for a SSW anymore
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Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent as projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out .
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01-02 was caused by a massive, record breaking high solar flux from September to April. The incoming UV was off the charts. It shrunk and contracted the SPV and warmed the mid-latitudes which caused non stop zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter. The westerlies were screaming
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It looks like the 6z EPS brings some snow to you guys at the end. Doesn’t look as robust as last night though. South of NE, not so much
