snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Just saw that lol Eric says he thinks it’s unlikely at the moment. I think the whole SSWE having a big effect (i.e. 2018) or a major SSW happening is unlikely. HM would be all over it right now like white on rice if it had a good chance of happening just like he was back in February, 2018. He is totally unimpressed by it right now
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If HM isn’t interested in this possible SSW, then it’s probably nothing to get excited about. He really knows his stuff with the stratosphere, in fact, back in February, 2018, he was one of the 1st mets to really sound the alarms that the SSW and that the blocking period that was going to follow in March was going to be historic. A lot of mets were laughing it off and saying too little too late and that it was going to be useless in alternating the pattern. We all know how that turned out
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Didn’t even consider this, but a SSWE could possibly work to re-enforce the canonical La Niña pattern, once the MJO starts constructively interfering with the Niña standing wave late this month and February, a SSW may actually cool the tropical tropopause and intensify the convection and the forcing. Maybe rooting for a SSW right now is not such a good thing right now…..
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Based on the last 3 months, until proven otherwise, for the rest of this winter, IMO: 1) the SE ridge/WAR is going to trend stronger as we get closer, 2) Unless a true -NAO block and 50/50 low actually show up in real time, not just fantasy on a long/medium range op or ensemble run, the storm is going to run or cut 3) If there’s a -PNA with a trough dumped out west, same story 4) Don’t believe +PNA’s until they actually happen, not just model fantasy
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You want the GFS clipping Cape Cod and the eastern twin forks at this range because you know it’s going to inevitably move west as you get close to the event
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The GFS being where it is for Wed/Thurs is a bad sign IMO. You want to see it suppressed and OTS and a miss at this range. It almost always corrects further west as you draw closer to the event. If there’s a further west correction from where it is now, that’s not good
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The PAC starts to go to hell quicker on the GEFS this run
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Which site are you using? This one isn’t showing anything big in the metro area https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-york/snow-depth-in/20230125-0000z.html
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HM isn’t impressed. Guess we’ll see
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Everywhere south of Orange County got jack diddly from that event. All rain
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The lakes aren’t even frozen here. I’ve lived in Sloatsburg my entire life and I don’t ever remember the lakes not being frozen by this time
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Rockland County is. I’m 35 miles NW of NYC and we’ve yet to see a plowable snowfall. The last one was 3/12
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Since mid-November, it has been a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth outside of the 4 day arctic snap at the end of December
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IMO, the Sunday-Monday storm is rain south of I-84, much too warm. The one to look for is Thursday, that may have a chance to thread the needle if everything goes exactly right. If nothing happens by 2/2 it’s close the shades time for awhile. The new GEFS is very ugly after that date. Gotta agree with Allsnow, the window is 1/26-2/2, if nothing happens, we most likely wait until early March
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@Allsnow Here’s the short window (1/27-2/2) you pointed out. I know you feel the same way, but if we are to score before March, that’s when it needs to happen
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Yea, it’s looking less likely now that we see a major SSW, i.e. February, 2018.
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The clue I always look for to see if there’s actually a good chance at a coastal snowstorm is the GFS. At this range, the GFS is almost always way suppressed /OTS and a miss. Then as you move closer in time it trends towards the other models. If it’s showing a big hit or a coastal hugger, that’s usually a bad sign because its correction at this range is almost always west as you draw closer to the event
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In a way lol the good that about getting jackpotted on day 9 runs is it shows you exactly what’s not going to happen
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For the 1st one early next week yes. Then it bombs the Thursday low and jackpots the area. Guess we’ll see but I wouldn’t get too excited with the way this winter has gone over a day 9 op run
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If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2
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Maybe the SSW chance wasn’t as strong as I thought…https://twitter.com/harryspoelstra/status/1615262255649624066?s=46&t=Vmu7zrbEvS3iHI1vsA6tKg
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1/29 is the all time record….
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You’ve been saying this since November
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That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run
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This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of time
