snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this
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It still looks like a 1-2 inch event, especially north and west of the city
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My guess is an inch or 2 at best north and west of NYC. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 inch amounts but that would be the ceiling IMO. Marginal setup. Take the under
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Friday night/Saturday looks like a 1-2 inch maybe 3 inch (in spots) event especially north and west of NYC IMO. The city itself might not see much at all. Next week might possibly be more impressive?
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Agree. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios during those waves. The Kuchera is actually closer to reality
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That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now
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In reality on Saturday, that’s all white rain and non accumulating slop. Temps are in the mid to upper 30’s, during the day, approaching mid-March. Those 10:1 maps are going to be way overdone
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NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air
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It’s all going to be dynamic cooling dependent snow. No real cold air in place, no arctic connection. If there isn’t strong lift and heavy QPF rates it’s going to be rain. All dependent on bringing cold down from aloft/creating its own cold air. Pray for a strong wrapped up coastal low with a decent track and real good UVVs
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You are going to have to depend on strong dynamic cooling. Unless there is an amped up storm with strong UVVs and heavy precip rates to cause dynamic cooling and bring down cold air from aloft, it’s going to be rain. Lack of cold and approaching mid-March
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@40/70 Benchmark If this is correct, it looks like an east-based El Niño is starting to develop:
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Just based on the 500mb the new Euro is going to look absolutely nothing at all like 0z
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The RGEM has nothing at all. Zip zero. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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There was also good op Euro and EPS support for a major snowstorm here this weekend too
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I’ll take “Things that aren’t going to happen” for $500 Alex….
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I agree. This one is going the wrong way IMO. I don’t trust the Euro/EPS anymore. It’s definitely not what it used to be
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IMO, next weekend’s setup doesn’t look as favorable as it did yesterday. Here’s a good visual on why
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I agree. There are multiple issues post 3/15, besides the climo ones you mentioned, length of day and sun angle are also big issues
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If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point
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There is an inland runner risk for sure, long way to go though
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I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option
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Jackpotted next Sunday! What could possibly go wrong??? [emoji23][emoji23]
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Based on the new model runs I believe there’s little if any snow south of I-84. It most likely starts as brief snow/sleet and goes to rain south of 84. The new runs have less than an inch of snow for Rockland
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None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84
