snowman19

If there wasn’t the very high solar flux that winter, on paper, that winter probably would have been a good one for the east coast. He made himself look like a fool with the famous “vodka cold” comment and the instance that it was coming until he finally admitted that it was a lost cause come mid-February of 2002

01-02 was “ruined” by a high solar flux from September through the end of March. The UV from the high solar flux warmed the low and middle latitudes and greatly shrunk the SPV. It strengthened the westerlies and there was screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter

11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February

No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs?

JB’s analogs are 1917-1918, 1995-1996, 2010-2011…..

Yea. Eastern Indian Ocean forcing = dead in the water. Maritime Continent = maybe “serviceable” until February and March with the wavelength changes then no good

We’ll see where the main tropical convective forcing/MJO waves want to setup this fall, going into early met winter….if it wants to set up over the eastern part of the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent then we have issues

As the saying goes…pow wow go towe towe da da da yea ok da da da

The updated NWS CPC winter forecast FWIW: https://wjon.com/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-climate-prediction-center/

People are obsessed with seeing a high Atlantic ACE season because of 95-96. That winter was historic for more than that, you had a strongly +PDO/+PMM….extremely rare in a Niña, it was a weak east-based Niña and it was coming off an El Niño the winter before so it had the active STJ. You also had a classic Atlantic “tripole” look in the SSTAs

Got ya. Yea, I was just looking at SSWEs during official La Niña years and what solar and QBO were doing

Was 2009 high solar?

I’m seeing some UK forecasters on twitter talking about how there is going to be a high probability of a SSW this year….not sure what they are looking at or where they are getting this from. If you look at it statistically, this upcoming winter is very unlikely to see a SSW (La Niña/high solar/+QBO). In order of most likely to least likely to see a SSWE, it would be: Niña/low solar/-QBO, Niña/high solar/-QBO, Niña/low solar/+QBO, Niña/high solar/+QBO

The studies I’ve read have shown that the overwhelming majority of the time ENSO forces the PDO state, most notably in the fall. It is very rare to have an “out of sync” ENSO/PDO (i.e. Niña/+PDO or Nino/-PDO), that’s why 95-96 was such a rare breed. The PDO is still negative right now. Given the propensity for strong -PDO the last few years and that we have a healthy Niña, my guess is that we see a significant PDO drop by late November. We will see though

Question is, is this the beginning of an actual full scale PDO shift despite the -ENSO, or just a temporary, transient reflection of the current pattern? If it is still doing this in November, then something may be going on. I believe last year, the big PDO drop didn’t happen until we were into October and November. Definitely something to watch

There are no guarantees in weather

Given a favorable synoptic pattern, those super warm waters along the coast will enhance baroclinic instability/coastal fronts, but like you and I discussed earlier, good luck getting all snow events anywhere near the coast in December, there will be boundary layer issues galore in anything but an absolutely perfect setup

We agree it’s not going to get strong. The NMME is suggesting a +NAO, if you watch the loop, it has a big cold pool develop around and south of Greenland and up into Davis Straight during winter. That is definitely not a -NAO signature. Not saying it’s right so I’m not sure where Ben Noll thinks it’s showing a -NAO

Of course there are no absolutes or slam dunks, however, I will say this, La Niña, QBO, PDO, IOD, ACE, Atlantic SSTs, volcanoes aside, if the current high solar flux continues, it’s definitely not a good sign for this upcoming winter

I wouldn’t call that pattern an all out torch. The only thing saving that from happening is the east-based -NAO it’s showing. If @40/70 Benchmarkis right and we see a flat Aleutian high this winter, we will need all the help we can get from the NAO because I don’t think we are going to sustain any +PNA or -EPO. I’m also skeptical about the AO cooperating much

I never said December would torch. December may in fact be the best month of the winter. However, high solar flux and geomag/Niña/+QBO/record volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere/current Atlantic SSTs are definitely not screaming a -AO/-NAO winter to me. I don’t think HM is suggesting that we should expect that either in that tweet. I will also say the Niña and it’s configuration/west lean, whatever we want to call it and the -PDO are also not screaming a 2013-14 +PNA/-EPO to me either. I don’t think we are going to see the big poleward Aleutian ridging like we did last winter either