snowman19

The last MJO phase 8 attempt in January was a fail. Those RMM charts are very noisy. The problem is the atmosphere is still solidly into La Niña “mode”. The Niña standing wave convection over the warm pool (eastern IO/maritime continent) is going destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate out into the PAC. The trades are still strong, which isn’t helping either, shears the wave apart. The SOI is still very solidly into Niña territory as well, so even though it’s starting to fade at the surface/SSTs and subsurface, it’s still well coupled to the atmosphere. IMO this turns into another phase 8 fail

Do you think the weeklies after 2/25 are real this time or is this yet another mirage? The GEFS ext are showing a big SE Ridge the 1st week of March in direct opposition of the weeklies

Simon Lee alluded to that yesterday and HM is not impressed at all with it. He said it’s “Zzz”

One WWA for an inch of snow in Rockland County and a couple of special weather statements. It’s been just as brutal up here as it has been in NYC

How can it be over? It never even started south of New England

The Euro cranked a CCB around the NYC metro and it goes to sleet just before it pulls away, the Kuchera has less than an inch of snow from it. The NYC area snow futility looks to continue

It’s a shit airmass

IMO if the precip shield actually makes it up to the NYC area like the 6z GFS suggests, it’s rain unless there’s strong dynamics (UVVs). It’s going to be rate/dynamic cooling dependent. Extremely marginal airmass

I thought I was lying when I said that before…

The new Euro is very similar to the GFS, only difference, it doesn’t go crazy with the dynamic cooling down south like the GFS did. It’s all rain outside of the mountains

If you look at 97-98 the NAO and AO actually weren’t bad. The problem was the super Nino displacing the Aleutian low over AK resulting in ++EPO and PAC air completely flooding the pattern. Had it not been for the super Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter, there were plenty of storms with the very active STJ

Right, big arctic high to the north. Downright frigid! Are you happy now? Feel better?

And the 12z winds up a 993mb that misses way to the south, no cold air around

The 6z GFS honestly looked like a mid-March storm that would be totally rate/dynamic cooling (UVV) dependent

The only ones hyping it up are Joe Bastardi and Mark Margavage. This is nothing like 2018, they are wishcasting again

Make that 4. The GFS, ICON, CMC and EURO all showing something different. I’m sure if the UKMET went out further that would be different from the others too

When I told you that it was not a good NYC snow pattern I really meant it. I wasn’t trolling you or being a dick. We aren’t New England, something that may work for them could be garbage for us. IMO given this pattern, until there is a legit -NAO block and a 50/50 low you can forget a NYC snowstorm, especially with a marginal airmass. Same story if there’s a full latitude -PNA trough dumped in the west….bad for NYC snowstorms

Come March 15th and beyond, it’s basically over for everyone south of New England minus some freak, anomalous event. At that point you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day and it only continues to get worse after that point

The CMC doesn’t even develop a storm anymore on the new run

While a total shutout is unlikely, I would say if NYC gets to 3/1 with only a 0.4 snow total still, the chances of a big comeback would be extremely slim IMO. March climo for NYC would argue against it

The GFS just did it with the last snow event for Boston. It was the furthest east of all models and kept correcting further and further west right up until the event. Go back and look at the progression of model runs from it. It had it as a total miss at one point

The fact that the GFS is showing an inland runner is a red flag IMO. At this range you want the GFS being a complete miss to the east given it’s progressive/suppressed bias because you know it’s only going to correct further and further west as we get closer in time. Normally if there’s going to be an east coast snowstorm, at this point in time before the event, the GFS is a whiff while all the other models show something hitting

I was referring to NYC where MJO812 is from

Shrooms