snowman19

Simple reason, we had a major SSW last year and the La Niña never coupled. Neither one of those happened this time

It looks like the cold could possibly hold into late January with the MJO stuck in phase 7 with -GLAAM. Will be interesting to see what happens the tail end of the month, like post 1/25:

That’s a very reasonable expectation for snowfall totals

Looks like Upton is going with the Euro/EPS for their snowfall forecast. This just got issued: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

My concern would be this if we really lose the PAC side, showing a ++NAO for the remainder of winter:

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February:

Agree with you. It’s a 1-3 event, which we said before is a win when you are into the first week of January with less than an inch for the season

With how this winter has gone so far, take 1-3 inches and run with it, I’m sure no one will be complaining. I only have 0.5 inches total up here, first time I can ever remember it being this bad at this time of the season

The fact that the EPS is even further east and weaker than the op is a bad sign. I’m batting a 1,000, thought this would trend west. I guess that very fast, progressive flow will not be denied. Also think this last storm helped to push the baroclinic zone well off shore. I should have known better when last night’s Euro was basically a non event. The Euro may have its moments of being wrong, but I seriously doubt it’s completely out to lunch this close in, especially when the Ukie, RGEM and CMC are showing a very similar scenario.

He’s right. I’ve felt all along this event was going to possibly end up as an inland runner for a few reasons

The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk

A little over 3 days away and the Euro and GFS with completely different depictions of what is going to happen Thursday night/Friday morning lol let’s see who wins this one. I will say this, now that today’s storm really blew up more than expected up the coast, it may help to push the baroclinic zone way off shore. Guess we’ll see

That northern fringe is going to be fighting very dry air as per soundings. A lot of what is shown is probably going to be virga

Not sure why he thought what he posted somehow invalidates your previous post that it turns mild for a time before that but whatever…

Yea, I figured the GFS was doing it’s normal, notorious wave spacing screw up….it was the only model showing it. I was wrong lol

The NYC metro area on north is just virga, check the soundings. There is super dry air, it’s not overcoming that *GFS

The GFS had a very rare good moment with this storm yes I will admit. However I still don’t think it’s correct with the very northern edge of the precip it shows as accumulating snow, look at the sounding, that’s virga, it’s not going to overcome that dry layer. But yea, all in all the GFS did well this time

The Monday event is “ticking” NW today because of the SE ridge press and lack of a -NAO block….this is why the risk for Friday is an inland runner, I think that event most likely ends up further west than what the Euro and the other models are showing right now as we get closer to that event. Models underestimating the SE ridge until we get right up to the event. Once that shortwave amps for Friday’s event, there’s no -NAO block to force secondary redevelopment off shore or tame the SE ridge. If there’s any thunderstorm blowups over the SE as the storm develops, the latent heat release aloft from the t-storms pumps the SE ridge even more

The GFS is awful. What it shows on Monday for our area is obviously virga. I don’t know why this terrible model is even being entertained given its pathetic performance so far this winter and it has zero support, extreme outlier status for Monday…..

It’s crazy how many different solutions we have seen in less than 24 hours from various models, cutter, inland runner, classic snowstorm track, suppressed, take your pick lol

The warm December aside, I honestly cannot remember the last time we have gone into the first week of January with less than an inch of snow. We got nothing in November and I only have 0.5 of snow total for December. In recent history, I think only 97-98 and 01-02 did this. Even 11-12 and 19-20 had much more snow by this time…..

Nice discussion. 1/6-1/7 definitely looks like an I-84 - north snow/wintry event. Unfortunately, we lost the -NAO blocking, also lost the -AO. Any shortwave that amps is going to want to be an inland runner/cutter. With the +NAO, there nothing to stop a SE ridge flex and force secondary redevelopment off the coast. The blocking left at a real bad time

If you want snowstorms hope that’s wrong. With a TPV in that position you are going to be very cold and dry. There is going to be screaming fast flow around it, any shortwaves are going to get put through the meat grinder and sheared, suppressed to bits….

As Allsnow was. But in all honestly, that pattern is temporary, enjoy it while it lasts and hope it produces

Besides the MJO, the strength and coupling of the La Niña/-PDO, the SPV was another poorly forecasted factor going into this winter, we kept hearing that we would see a weak to very weak SPV for December and January, now we have anything but with no signs whatsoever of a SSW and signals that it may couple with the troposphere going into late month: