snowman19

Had to drop in to agree with you on that. The Niña system is still in full effect. Also, I’m not so sure the SSWE is going to be all that effective either. This event is nothing like 2018, it’s a displacement event, adding to the uncertainty and there’s destructive interference from the +QBO and -AAM, serving to delay and convolute everything. If there’s even any tropospheric response it may not happen until the 2nd week of March. This tweet chain does a great job of explaining what’s going on

Not true. If you have a -PNA full latitude trough digging for gold in Baja, it’s not good, March or not

The GEFS ext and EPS show -NAO blocking in March but the GEFS maintains the -PNA/SE ridge. It looks convoluted going into the 1st/2nd week of March, I don’t think the models are even close to coming to a consensus yet

The SSWE prospects aren’t looking this great. This is a really detailed tweet chain. He explains how the -AAM and +QBO are destructively interfering with and slowing the downwelling of this event into the troposphere. He opines that it may take until the 2nd week of March to see the tropospheric effects finally take shape. This is also a displacement event rather than a split, further complicating things. Good read:

A very productive RNA yes. It was a textbook SSWE (bottom-up wave driven) that forced a -AO and a Scandinavian block that retrograded to a west based Greenland/Baffin Island -NAO block, it also popped a ridge bridge -EPO that delivered the cross-polar arctic flow. You had the parade of shortwaves from the RNA and they blew up over the super warm SSTs off the east coast with the very slowed, backed up roadblock flow from the strong -NAO and 50/50 lows that kept re-establishing

Joe Bastardi and Mark Margavage just to name 2 right off the bat

Yea, RNA is definitely not a mid-Atlantic snow pattern. The thing I’m laughing at is the March, 2018 “analog” getting thrown around twitter. Total wishcast. Besides this SSW being nothing at all like that event. If anyone actually believes we are going to see that kind of anomalous arctic and west-based NAO blocking all month, they are delusional lol

The thing that’s striking is that if the widely hyped SSW is going to downwell to the troposphere and do something to the polar/arctic fields you want to start seeing some sort of response with the NAM/AO and NAO. That’s not happening on the models through 2/28. It’s +AO/+NAO right through. If we get to the 1st week of March and there’s still no response or at least one definitely imminent, I doubt it’s ever going to happen

@40/70benchmark Your idea of a slow downwelling of the warming to the troposphere is looking pretty good. What actually happens in March ??? I would think the AO/NAO at least become less hostile and maybe some blocking develops but I seriously doubt the RNA goes away.

The -PNA/RNA has been amazingly persistent ever since November. Full latitude, digging for gold out west right through the end of the ensemble runs

Do you ever stop changing your opinion? You were winter cancel yesterday

Is this event considered a top down or bottom up (wave forced) SSW? I remember reading an article years ago that went into detail about that. There are big differences in how those 2 types of SSWEs effect the troposphere. I’m trying to find the article again. Not sure what the strato experts are considering this one to be

Let’s see if the weeklies can actually hold that post Feb. 25th high latitude blocked look and advance it forward in time. If that gets delayed and pushed into the March, I’d say it’s over for everyone south of New England at that point. You guys can still snow well into March and even early April, but once you get to the 15th, it’s pretty much done south of you guys minus some anomalous, freak event

I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point:

The last MJO phase 8 attempt in January was a fail. Those RMM charts are very noisy. The problem is the atmosphere is still solidly into La Niña “mode”. The Niña standing wave convection over the warm pool (eastern IO/maritime continent) is going destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate out into the PAC. The trades are still strong, which isn’t helping either, shears the wave apart. The SOI is still very solidly into Niña territory as well, so even though it’s starting to fade at the surface/SSTs and subsurface, it’s still well coupled to the atmosphere. IMO this turns into another phase 8 fail

Do you think the weeklies after 2/25 are real this time or is this yet another mirage? The GEFS ext are showing a big SE Ridge the 1st week of March in direct opposition of the weeklies

Simon Lee alluded to that yesterday and HM is not impressed at all with it. He said it’s “Zzz”

One WWA for an inch of snow in Rockland County and a couple of special weather statements. It’s been just as brutal up here as it has been in NYC

How can it be over? It never even started south of New England

The Euro cranked a CCB around the NYC metro and it goes to sleet just before it pulls away, the Kuchera has less than an inch of snow from it. The NYC area snow futility looks to continue

It’s a shit airmass

IMO if the precip shield actually makes it up to the NYC area like the 6z GFS suggests, it’s rain unless there’s strong dynamics (UVVs). It’s going to be rate/dynamic cooling dependent. Extremely marginal airmass

I thought I was lying when I said that before…