snowman19

Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

Paul Roundy said he believes MJO phases 5-8 will be dominant this winter

Here is some great info with graphics on east-based -NAO’s vs west-based -NAO’s

Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however

@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions

Yes.

It would mitigate the sometime suppressive effects of strong -NAO yes .

I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…

No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles

The PNA was never supposed to be favorable

Just keep in mind that MJO 8 in December, during a La Niña features a stout -PNA. Also features -AO/-NAO and -EPO/-WPO, which is good, but there probably will be troughing over the west coast

With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA

The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block .

Go back to work. There’s people pooping in the streets there for heaven’s sake .

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .

Twitter had it being the Blizzard of 96 last week

Twitter is hilarious right now. You have weenies in DC and Philly saying exactly that…”It’s going to bomb out and pull down its own cold air from aloft” “It’s too early to say it’s not going to be snow it could make it’s own cold” LMFAOOOO!! [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022112000&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= .

This high solar flux isn’t as bad as 2001, so I wouldn’t expect that kind of carnage .