snowman19

Since mid-November, it has been a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth outside of the 4 day arctic snap at the end of December

IMO, the Sunday-Monday storm is rain south of I-84, much too warm. The one to look for is Thursday, that may have a chance to thread the needle if everything goes exactly right. If nothing happens by 2/2 it’s close the shades time for awhile. The new GEFS is very ugly after that date. Gotta agree with Allsnow, the window is 1/26-2/2, if nothing happens, we most likely wait until early March

@Allsnow Here’s the short window (1/27-2/2) you pointed out. I know you feel the same way, but if we are to score before March, that’s when it needs to happen

Yea, it’s looking less likely now that we see a major SSW, i.e. February, 2018.

The clue I always look for to see if there’s actually a good chance at a coastal snowstorm is the GFS. At this range, the GFS is almost always way suppressed /OTS and a miss. Then as you move closer in time it trends towards the other models. If it’s showing a big hit or a coastal hugger, that’s usually a bad sign because its correction at this range is almost always west as you draw closer to the event

In a way lol the good that about getting jackpotted on day 9 runs is it shows you exactly what’s not going to happen

For the 1st one early next week yes. Then it bombs the Thursday low and jackpots the area. Guess we’ll see but I wouldn’t get too excited with the way this winter has gone over a day 9 op run

If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2

Maybe the SSW chance wasn’t as strong as I thought…https://twitter.com/harryspoelstra/status/1615262255649624066?s=46&t=Vmu7zrbEvS3iHI1vsA6tKg

1/29 is the all time record….

You’ve been saying this since November

That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run

This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of time

*Possible SSW. Niña/+QBO/high solar is the least likely combo for a SSW. That said it’s not impossible. I’m still not 100% sold one definitely happens but it looks possible

We’ve had 3 months of “ best looks” and “great patterns” day 7+ and here we sit on 1/17 and NYC has a trace of snow. Total

Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow

Maybe you would like to give us a detailed explanation of what you will think will happen next week instead of just trolling my posts without any evidence to back it up? What do you think is going to happen and why? .

Agreed. It seems like the only one who thinks we are getting an I-95 snowstorm next week is Joe Bastardi. There is no semblance of a legit -NAO block and a marginal airmass. Color me skeptical of next week too

The Euro has been showing phantom 50/50 lows that disappear. Last week as an example, when it had the 50/50 low mirage for Thursday and a snowstorm for a few runs and it turned into 50 degrees and rain. Until a legit 50/50 low shows up or a -NAO, I doubt any major coastal snowstorm

But were the chances actually that much better in December? The only thing it had going for it was the west-based -NAO block and the -AO. Other than that, the SE ridge/WAR kept verifying stronger than the long range was showing and you had an extremely negative PNA which ruined it. The -EPO was basically useless too, all it did was supply a 4 day shot of arctic. There was a met in the NE forum who kept warning that the pattern wasn’t as good as everyone thought and he was ignored. Turns out he was 100% right

That’s the kiss of death

Yea, February looks like a lost cause. It is way, way too far out to even think seriously about yet, but there is a possibility that early March might become favorable for wintry weather again. Depends on if the MJO can actually propagate out into the Pacific and how fast the cold can build back up in Canada and the CONUS. Just keep in mind that we will obviously be fighting March climo/length of day/sun angle at that point and it will be March “cold”, but I suppose there is possibly a window in early March for “something”. Maybe

Since the NAO is going to be positive we are going to need a strong 50/50 low to create confluence and make it work for our area. If there’s not one, then it’s probably congrats New England. And until proven otherwise, the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer

Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane