snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Inverts?
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The HRRR has the changeover, it’s just not as enthused as the RAP https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012312&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Rapid midlevel cooling north and west of the city right now
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The Euro has that same storm too but it’s all rain even into Canada
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Always 240+ hours away the winter of digital snow lol [emoji23]
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The RGEM/CMC suite want absolutely nothing at all to do with Wednesday, they have a total non event run after run. Either it’s going to score a coupe or it’s going down in flames
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Cherish whatever we get on Wednesday. The Euro has nothing but rainstorms the rest of this month into the beginning of February
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If the CMC and RGEM are correct and the precip holds off until the midlevels start torching, this will be a brief non accumulating snow/sleet onset then very quickly over to all rain. The way this winter has gone, I don’t think any of us would be surprised if that’s actually the outcome
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The differences between the GFS and CMC are laughable for a little over 2 days out. CMC has a non event and the GFS has a plowable snow from Westchester/Rockland/Bergen on north. One is going to be dead wrong
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If the SPV restrengthens in mid-late February my cold/possibly snowy March idea is going to go down in flames
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Also, want to add, this is where the +NAO and lack of a 50/50 low is killing us. If there was a -NAO block, even a transient thumb ridge to lock a 50/50 in and create confluence to hold the high to the north, this probably would have been an area wide WSW event, even with this marginal airmass in place. An arctic high obviously would had been ideal but if there was a -NAO and 50/50, this event would have been way different
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I agree. To me this is an I-84 north WWA event, south of there? Not so much. The high is moving away, very marginal boundary layer, low cutting into Lake Erie, during the day, this isn’t screaming big front end dump south of I-84
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The globals should *hopefully* come to a better consensus at 0z tonight
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It’s showing the biggest dump of snow on the front end out of all the other global models. I’m skeptical but we’ll see. Verbatim, it has a plowable snowfall for Westchester, Bergen, Rockland on north and west. IMO it’s overdone
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If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol
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I’ve been thinking March too but Larry Cosgrove thinks it’s game over for winter by the start of March. He’s been dead wrong about the cold and snow all winter long, watch him be right about that lol
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Don’t even bother looking at the NAM anymore it’s been absolutely horrible since November. That said, to me Wednesday morning is a quick inch or two then over to all rain
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Tomorrow is very doubtful but definitely growing evidence the NYC snow drought ends Wednesday morning
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It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland
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Should have said 5 mets. Steve DiMartino was big into the SSWE hype for weeks too. But that’s not a surprise coming from him
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Certain weenie mets ran with it on social media and weather enthusiasts who don’t know any better fell for all the hype. IMO they are doing a disservice to meteorology and the weather community in general by wishcasting and spreading misinformation. It’s a group of 4 mets (Joe Bastardi, Mark Margavage, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann) who are really bad and have big followings on twitter. Their followers retweet and spread their voodoo far and wide
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Looks like HM was right. The SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Looks like HM was right, the SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Larry Cosgrove says winter ends with the arrival of March in his new newsletter. Don’t know how it can end when it never even started. I guess he’s finally giving up after being wrong all winter
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I’m kinda shocked Bernie Rayno isn’t doing videos on Wednesday. Usually he’s all over possible northeast snow events days in advance. I guess either he’s busy or unimpressed by it
