snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The twitterologists are ignoring the RNA and the fact that this SSWE is not going to be anything close to March, 2018 IMO. And they are back with their “MJO 8-1-2” hype. A bunch of people are going to end up with egg on their faces yet again. You can thank the usual cast of weenie mets for this
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The thing is, these studies getting thrown around showing the tropospheric response and NAM (AO) and NAO going negative aren’t going to happen until the 2nd or 3rd week of March if you follow the logic, given the date of this SSW. So to what avail does this actually help us if it takes until mid-late March? We will have a September/August sun angle overhead at that point and we will also be fighting climo and length of day
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Yes, caution is definitely warranted and given the fact that we are into mid-February now, even if this study is correct, we would be looking at mid-March to start seeing the effects and at that point it’s basically over
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As of 2/28 it still doesn’t have a -NAO. At that point the clock will really be ticking
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If we are still spinning our wheels come 3/1, it’ll be time to pronounce this one officially dead
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A -NAO is believable, a +PNA though? lol skeptical hippo
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Just reiterated what a meteorologist tweeted. I shared the link above
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Just read that the new Euro weeklies are a torch through the end of this month then they get cooler/colder the 1st 2 weeks of March
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Yep, it’s been unable to propagate 8-1-2 all winter long thanks to the Niña standing wave convection destructively interfering with it and the enhanced trades shearing it apart. Another phase 8 fail looks to be incoming
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Good luck with that
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An improvement? Sure. That wouldn’t take much after this disaster. But -5 for temps and 20 inches of snow in NYC between March 1st and April 15th? That’s laughably delusional. Wishcasting at its best
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Saying the I-95 corridor is going to go -5 for temps and NYC is going to get 20 inches of snow from 3/1 to 4/15 is predicting an epic, historic pattern. He’s a fool. No one takes him seriously anymore. It’s satire at this point
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I would think if the retrograding block to a -NAO is real, it probably wouldn’t happen until the 2nd week of March?
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EPS and GEFS are in different universes lol
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in caso di dubbio, spegni la montagna verde
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Read JB is going off the charts hype on the paid site for 3/1 - 4/15….predicting a -5F temp average for the I-95 corridor and 20+ inches of snow in NYC for that time frame. Get ready for March, 2012….
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You said you weren’t impressed weeks ago despite all the hype and it seems so far that you are going to be correct. This looks like a “top down” event as opposed to the “bottom up” wave forced event of 2018
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Had to drop in to agree with you on that. The Niña system is still in full effect. Also, I’m not so sure the SSWE is going to be all that effective either. This event is nothing like 2018, it’s a displacement event, adding to the uncertainty and there’s destructive interference from the +QBO and -AAM, serving to delay and convolute everything. If there’s even any tropospheric response it may not happen until the 2nd week of March. This tweet chain does a great job of explaining what’s going on
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Not true. If you have a -PNA full latitude trough digging for gold in Baja, it’s not good, March or not
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The GEFS ext and EPS show -NAO blocking in March but the GEFS maintains the -PNA/SE ridge. It looks convoluted going into the 1st/2nd week of March, I don’t think the models are even close to coming to a consensus yet
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The SSWE prospects aren’t looking this great. This is a really detailed tweet chain. He explains how the -AAM and +QBO are destructively interfering with and slowing the downwelling of this event into the troposphere. He opines that it may take until the 2nd week of March to see the tropospheric effects finally take shape. This is also a displacement event rather than a split, further complicating things. Good read:
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A very productive RNA yes. It was a textbook SSWE (bottom-up wave driven) that forced a -AO and a Scandinavian block that retrograded to a west based Greenland/Baffin Island -NAO block, it also popped a ridge bridge -EPO that delivered the cross-polar arctic flow. You had the parade of shortwaves from the RNA and they blew up over the super warm SSTs off the east coast with the very slowed, backed up roadblock flow from the strong -NAO and 50/50 lows that kept re-establishing
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Joe Bastardi and Mark Margavage just to name 2 right off the bat
