snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Sleet at best. The upper levels are torched. We’re not getting snow out of that one
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If you want something in March, you have a 15 day window (3/1-3/15). Anything after that point would have to be a freak, anomalous event. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all against you by 3/15 and it only gets worse from there
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Looks like very strong -PNA, +EPO, +AO. The only thing it’s got going for it is the -NAO. It’s going to be March, where’s the arctic air? March, 2018 had -EPO and cross-polar flow delivering arctic air, that’s why it was such an epic month. We don’t have that this time
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The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess
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Cold bias as in the GFS is too far south. It will end up correcting north just like it did for the middle of this upcoming week. It had snow in DC and Baltimore in earlier runs. It has done this I don’t know how many times already this winter
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I don’t know about all 3 being rain in SNE, south of there? Absolutely. IMO, all 3 are going to turn into New England frozen events with primarily all rain south of there. The GFS cold bias is ridiculous
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The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over
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What’s your snow total since November? …..SCORE!!
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Always a plus when the 18z op GFS shows consistently for a fantasy event more than a week out
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Thank you Dr. Hannibal Lecter. Great psychiatric analysis!
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March, 2018 is quite possibly one of the worst “analogs” for this upcoming March ever, it ranks right up there in the top 5 dumbest wishcasts ever, like as bad as the fools who were using 1995-96 and 2010-11 back in November for this winter. The people who were using 1957-58, 2002-03, and 2009-10 as “analogs” for the 2015-16 super El Niño, saying it was “west-based” were equally as dumb so it’s a really hard choice for the biggest buffoon award
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41 with sleet/graupel from passing stratocumulus with the sun out in Sloatsburg
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@donsutherland1 This guy is a total crackpot. -5F DC-BOS from 3/1 - 4/15 along with 20+ inches of snow in NYC
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Right!! Maybe if I post snow and cold fantasies and wishcasts it will really happen. That would have definitely made this winter much better. Once upon a time…..
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If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it?
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Still no signs of -NAM (-AO) response on the models into March. Still +NAM. You’re right, you usually don’t see this NAO/AO disconnect
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So this may not have an effect until the 2nd or 3rd week of March “week of 3/6 or 3/13” Tick toc, tick toc…..
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Day 8-9 on an op run is an eternity. It was just a few days ago that op models had a snowstorm for the middle of next week, we all know how that trended
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When you have a trough on the west coast digging down to Tijuana, it’s a bad thing even in March
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Congrats New England. We all know how this is going to trend over the next week. The PNA is dropping all the way to -5
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I really hope this doesn’t turn into a mid-March to the end of May raw rain and cloud fest with another totally ruined spring
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We agree to disagree. Just my opinion, the upstream pattern in the PAC is a total train wreck dumpster fire, there’s no arctic blocking (-AO) over the top, an east based NAO isn’t going to do the trick and lock in a 50/50 low and it would have to be timed absolutely perfectly to thread the needle before the low and confluence move away. We all know the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer in time, that’s a given. I’m skeptical, we’ll see
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First, the models have been too strong in the medium/long range with the 50/50 lows, see the last 4 months. Again, what is to stop that 50/50 vortex from simply moving right out into the Atlantic? There is no downstream block to keep it in place. You are talking thread the needle big time, especially given the very positive AO and the very strongly negative PNA. There’s a full latitude trough down to Baja
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Where’s the west based -NAO block to lock it in place and prevent it from escaping east? Also a ++AO and severely negative PNA
