EastonSN+

Thanks for this, Luck HAS to be a factor when comparing the two periods (90s to this one) as both were hostile background states. I really really wish we had these stats preceding 1963 as my grandfather always told the story of getting a sled for Christmas and it did not snow at all the entire year LOL.

17/18 was my snowiest March/April in my areas history, and the 5th snowiest winter in my lifetime. I loved the epic heatwave in February too which was great and had a snowstorm in the middle of the warmth lol.

Yup, at least we had 20/21 which as a good winter. Outside of that pretty bad. 18/19 was ok in that it was slightly below average snowfall largely saved by March (also an 80s 90s feature).

Here are all three for the audience. All have some RNA level, while the NAO region is the major difference.

Yeah, I saw this and it's definitely a possibility. Lol I didn't want to re live the 80s/early 90s "cutter/suppressed/cutter" pattern that dominated back then, but we have avoided it for the most part for over 25 years so I can't complain. Joking aside, I do like the fact that we are still seeing signs of blocking and strong El ninos outside of 97/98 do typically have that 2 to 4 week deep winter periods (albeit usually late January and February). Also, the suppressed look could benefit our friends in the DC region. 2 years ago the Delmarva/Virginia cashed in so they are always too far north or too far south lol.

Further to my previous post here is a great response from ORH_wxman who is one of the most knowledgeable posters I have seen.

Only the GEPS degraded. To me it looks as though the EPS more or less held while the GEFS improved. My trepidation comes from the fact that this is a strong El Nino and they are never wall to wall winters, therefore "delayed" looks may be more realistic than a moderate El Nino. Here is the EPS (middle ground between the great GEFS look and and eh GEPS look). While yes the PNA progresses to negative, the NAO is progressing to negative as well. Now, I know last December has a lot spooked that the "NEG NAO no longer works", however that was only due to the fact that we had an extreme trough off the west coast and California, if we stop the RNA here and build a Neg. NAO, then we are in business.

Yup, January looks better atm.

At the risk of experiencing the eye of the Tiger, wasn't last December's failure due to the depth and positioning of the west coast trough? I do not see how we could have realized success with that setup. Are there any examples of a similar setup resulting in a snowstorm for our area?

From the MA forum for a positive thought.

Now THIS is the COD lol.

GEFS now has the best H5 look in the LR. I know there is a bit of a split flow on the EPS, however still want less of a trough off the west coast and more heights over Greenland (to me this still looks like Canada is receiving PAC air). This is why I hate strong El ninos.

My first time hearing that GW was ending winter was 1988 and as a kid it was pretty disappointing, especially since the previous few winters were duds. Then the Thanksgiving snowstorm of 1989 hit.

Actually forgot about this biggie....

I wonder if CPK November snowfall has been higher than December over the past 5 seasons. I know there was at least one major November snowfall event.

Higher heights in Alaska would promote colder air. Higher heights in Greenland would provide blocking. Only concern is the lack of a PNA.

Thanks for posting. This would be amazing if it comes to fruition.

Mentioned before, however I completely lost sight of the fact that strong El ninos typically flood the continent with PAC air, especially in December. I was so excited to get out of la Nina that I chose to ignore. Looking at the MA forum there seems to be a lot of optimism for January, the H5 look has improved however given our current continental air mass it will take a bit of work. Seems to be the typical strong El nino progression so far.

94/95 was a one storm wonder, though it was my first 1 foot storm since 1983.

Could be, however it may be distributed late month i.e. we lose early month snowfall events while potentially seeing stronger late month events. Less chance of suppression IF we do have a stronger SE Ridge.

The top are the yearly average snowfall stats for the 80s for NYC. The second half of the 80s through the 90s were putrid for the most part.

Yeah, agree we are due for regression. I do not personally agree with the new regime theory. I DO think that warmer Atlantic waters can in theory help reduce suppression and perhaps lead to increased snowfall. Take for example 86/87, DC was crushed with snowfall. IF the SE ridge is a more permanent feature, with stronger intensification we can increase snowfall totals in suppression scenarios. IMO, we lose out in borderline temperature snow events while increasing opportunities for large moisture laden snow events. I would be concerned if we didn't see North Carolina and the Delmarva see snow events anymore, which they just did 2 years ago. This year comes down to a strong El Nino which typically floods Canada with PAC air. Last year was not due to lack of continental cold air, it was just allocated off and just on the west coast, which WAS beneficial for snowpack and reservoir water supply which they desperately needed.

Thanks Don - your the best!

Found this courtesy of the weather underground site. I did not realize that the 50s, 70s and 80s had less snowfall than the 90s, which I pegged as the least snowy period for NYC. The last two decades moved the average pretty high (i feel lucky to have lived through). Would be interesting to see if 2020 through 2029 can rival the 70s (personally hope not lol).

Thanks for this Don, It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter. In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment). Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously. Thanks!