EastonSN+

Great read Courtesy of the MA forum. Strongly suggest for all! The top 2 on the pic at the end have been our most recent winters.

Still have to watch the PAC trough which needs to retrograde. Until it does PAC air will dominate. The 850 temp map below is an almost perfect example of this. Negative departures in all the wrong places (extreme west coast/off the coast) and Greenland. Unfortunately this can/is currently occuring in strong el ninos especially December.

This is obviously just a potential, however this is an example for the audience members who do not remember 97/98. That year had numerous good storm tracks yet yielded only rain due to the fact that the continent was flooded with PAC air. That was the most frustrating winter I can remember.

Looks like the DC area had their first event, good for them! Even DC itself recorded 0.1 (Regan). Rare to see DC score before NYC and Boston.

I do not have the stats for strong El nino winters, however they seem to be either complete snowless torches like 97/98 (extreme example) or 3 to 4 week stretches like 1983 or 2016.

Exactly, I for one was just excited to avoid another la Nina and completely ignored the fact that strong el Ninos are typically not good for snowfall, especially in December. For now we enjoy the energy savings!

That was the greatest one for Myrtle! Below are the most resent Myrtle events, with 2010 the most recent warning level event.

There are people denying that it's getting warmer?

Lol that's a strong El nino December for you. Interesting to look at and learn from.

It has ALWAYS been useless without the PAC help.

I do not see anyone hyping 97/98, merely comparing that year to this year.

Yeah, there are so many nuances that make each winter unique. Perhaps November and December were flipped as compared to this year. Wasn't December 1997 cloud cover day count and precip much higher?

I never realized how warm December 1998 was to this point!! I wonder what the November temp departure was comparing this year to November 1997. Given how ridiculously warm December 1998 was to this point, I wonder how many days of cloud cover and precip there was in 1997? Perhaps that lead to a cooler 1997 December. Or our November pattern this year may have been delayed in 1997, therefore pushing the warmer departures a few days later.

Yup. I do not have the map for 1997 however that low off the west coast will pump the PAC air.

Thanks Don, it's crazy that 3 years on that list were in the late 90s. What a horrible stretch that was.

Agreed. What keeps me going is the fact that I had to go through 2 periods in the late 80s and late 90s with FOUR STRAIGHT crappy winters in a row. So, even if this year is a dud, better winters are ahead.

Thanks Don! I hope I never have to experience that winter again in my lifetime, ranks at the very bottom of my list.

I think our temps with be very similar to 97/98, albeit a degree or 2 warmer, if we keep blocking with numerous rain events capping daily high temps.

Yes there is always that knock-out punch in an El nino, however in general our area is warm and receives below average snowfall. That being said, 97/98 is probably a 1 in 50 year risk and probably happened in 1890 last time lol. Unlikely we wait till March like that year. Full disclosure I am not predicting anything, I leave that up to the METS. Just seeing similarities to 97/98 w/r/t the "one eyed pig" off the west coast.

Correct, the trough off the west coast was too persistent. I remember benchmark after benchmark track and rain. I honestly thought it was never going to snow again after that winter lol. Also it's a reminder that strong El ninos are not snowy for us.

Don posted briefly a while back about the 97/98 El nino fear. He was not predicting it at all, however what I am seeing on the ensembles looks pretty much like 97/98 w/r/t the trough off the west coast flooding the continent with Pacific air. That winter was a wall to wall warm washout, as the trough never moved, even with great blocking. History does repeat itself, and this is unfortunately a strong el nino which usually are warm and below average snowfall for our area. We went from la ninas to a strong El nino which is unfortunate, especially if we go to a strong la Nina again next winter LOL. It really really feels like when I grew up. For snowfall enthusiast, we need that feature to retrograde and it can indeed be a productive winter. Something to watch on the ensembles. Fingers crossed.

If you have a problem with me, message me directly and we can settle it. Internet muscles I see. Also, what do you mean by snowflake? Are you insinuating something? Finally, bullying is not acceptable in today's world. You are truly a sad human being. I also reported both of your posts.

Out in La La land but one can dream...

NAO moving in the wrong direction, however this is positive

One piece of the puzzle which we need and typical in an El nino.