EastonSN+

Intriguing look at the end of the month. Heights over Alaska and the trough south of Greenland have been static all winter season. Now we get an RNA pumping up the southeast ridge. Unlike recent years the RNA at this time does not look to be that deep, which can easily work in our favor as that can allow Southwest flow events. We play with fire here as if the RNA gets too deep the southeast ridge will take over. That being said, that trough south of Greenland will continue to allow for a confluence and mitigate the South East ridge encroachment. Don/Blue Wave are there any good analogs for this type of setup? Not sure if I remember seeing this before.

The wave for the 24th on the GFS is mainly rain/coastal hugger after C-2 generally across the board (some ice).

I honestly would love to see the South get a good storm. Of course much more interesting down there.

Disappointing EURO run, however only one run and will likely change as we move forward.

Sorry Stormtracker had to share with this audience it's hilarious!

On a side note I feel that there is fear on the board of an RNA. Not all RNAs are the same and they can be very beneficial for us for snowfall if there is confluence pushing down the southeast ridge. RNAs can produce good Southwest flow events/changeover events that can add up. I feel that the board has been shaken up from the last two RNAs which were into Baja and extreme. If it was a moderate RNA with the blocking we would have had KU events, just the way it goes sometimes. Even the guidance in the past which has showed a move to an RNA never shows it to the extreme of the last 2 years. Finally even if we do go to an RNA it could be temporary.

I would roll the dice with this look.

Seems that the euro is most consistent with this storm while the Canadian seems to be most consistent with the larger follow up Storm. The GFS has been all over the place on all the events.

Actually just go to the MA forum they can post snow maps. 6z euro a general 1 to 4.

So the 6z euro is a miss now?

This look could end up snowy if we are on the right side of the gradient. That PV SE of Greenland can help ensure the SE ridge does not link up with the NAO (as long as it's not to Baja).

Blocking weakening. Forky mentioned previously the end of month for potential as the blocking migrated and broke down.

I have to point out we still had two snow events following the pattern flip.

We still managed two snow events after the flip. The February rainstorm which started with one to three inches of snow, and an overrunning event in March which I believe Central Park had 4.5 inches of snow. At this point a repeat of 2011 would be welcomed LOL.

CFS weekly stronger with the -EPO on current run pushing the SE ridge. Deeper vortex over Atlantic. Something to watch as we head towards February. SE ridge lower on New run. Previous Current

Strong wave developing in phase 2 and 3. Looks to die out before the end of the month.

I agree on the best route being the root cause. However, how is it possible to get developing countries onboard. I did not know until now about the aerosols very interesting.

There is an X post in the MA forum where the East Coast prediction from the European monthly model showing above average snowfall for February for the MA and Northeast. Grain of salt, but as Bluewave pointed out track is more important than temps in Jan/February.

If I am not mistaken it looks like the PV is disrupted again on the ensembles. Could make for an interesting February.

Bluewave did mention that storm track is more important than temperatures in January and February. IF the pattern can reload and we have these temps in March watch out.

Would be the third storm for the Delmarva already. This is very reminiscent of a few years ago where they cleaned up as well. Maybe 19/20 was the winter?

I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show?

Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall.

Yeah not too good