EastonSN+

At the very least ski country can benefit a lot. Hopefully most or all of this sub forum as well.

Correct. Too bad this was a strong El nino, if this were moderate or weak we could have been talking a great winter.

Yup, our best potential in a while. I don't think it will be the last either.

It could be rain, but it's more fun to look at what can go right.

Yeah this type of setup is what works for the SE areas of the sub forum.

Huge differences over last year though. We do not have a monster RNA overpowering everything. We do not have a low pressure in the great lakes for every event like last year. Very different.

This can be a decent event for the coastal plain with the cold air just to the west moving in.

It's on our side of the globe now!

The vast majority of the time our snowfall comes from less than ideal setups, where a lot has to go just right for an all snow event. That said there are some features working in our favor which have been largely lacking in the last 2 years: 1.) High pressure to our north (we always had a low in the Great lakes area last two years). Would want in slightly west of that depiction however that is a cool air source. 2.) A deepening predicesor storm which is providing SOME confluence, which of course can help limit the northern trends. 3.) A storm crashing into the west coast, which, if timed right, can kick our storm east BEFORE allowing it to gain to much latitude (i.e. keeping us on the NW side. Not a perfect -EPO/PNA/-AO/-NAO setup, however one that gives us the best threat in a couple years. Great to be able to track something.

Agreed, it's more the overall pattern which favors an RNA regime over a SE ridge dominated setup (downstream effect). Once the oceanic thermal profiles change/alter locations and intensity (for example the rise and demise of the warm blob off the west coast driving the east based Neg EPO 13 through 15) we may be in better shape and re-establish a east coast trough dominant pattern. Big question is how long does the current profile last?

I think 90% of the issue was the RNA strength and maybe more importantly, the actual position of the trough. I don't think the NAO failure was historic. In fact, through history we failed more often than not on snow chances (other than periods such as 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018). Therefore this type of failure had to have occured before.

Yeah this one was suppressed to our south on this run.

I love seeing the high pressure to our north instead of the last two years where there was always a low pressure system.

Pulling for DC. They already had their first snow would like for them to get another.

Lol I never want to feel those temps again. Brutal. The 80s were pretty volatile temperature wise. 1989 was especially so with a record cold December followed by record warmth in January and February.

The better comparison would be 1996 through 2000, where Central Park averaged just 11.125 inches of snow! Let's see how this year shakes out as well as next year, as we could challenge that 4 year abismal stretch.

A better comparison is 1985 through 1990, where central park averaged only 15.34.

Thanks for this. We have definitely been in a predominant west coast trough, save 2021/2022, for the last five years excluding the current year. You have pointed out the IO and western Pacific temps as the driver which does make sense. From a learning perspective, what drove the continuous west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018? 2013 through 2015 was the east based negative EPO, however what drove the remaining years? Were the warmer water departures in a more favorable spot continuously through this period? I am actually seeing the benefits of the west coast troughing now as the southern California reservoirs have made a DRAMATIC, incredible come back and the snowpack has increased tremendously which is great! I believe the last time they had these levels were from the El nino periods of the 80s and 90s (I used to think that all the ski movies of the 80s were due to the fact that it always snowed there non stop lol). The predominant west coast Ridge from 2000 through 2018 was the driver in the reservoir issues out west. Finally, if one maritime force drove the west coast ridge from 2000 through 2018, and now another above normal ocean temperature location is driving the west coast troughing, what do we look for in terms of the next maritime driver location? What mechanism would drive this change? The favorable location lasted from 2000 through 2018, so unfortunately this may last another 10 years plus lol. Finally, why are the western Pacific Ocean temps skyrocketing faster than other locations? I understand there is a lot of development in that area, however, water currents are continuous so it's hard to believe that industrial activities would be driving that one area. Thank thanks!

Well, December actually acted like a true strong El nino background state with the entire continent void of arctic air (flooded by PAC air). As for January, we do see the trough dip first out west, the million dollar question is will the trough move east with time. If it's just 1 to 2 weeks that's fine. If not we are waiting for shorter wavelengths in Feb and March (and unfortunately April which has been cool and dreary lately). Also, WRT the la Nina/trough out west look, are we saying this has never happened before in a strong El Nino? We never experienced a western trough in strong El nino history in January? Not sure but perhaps Don or Bluewave knows.

I am not too familiar with 94/95 in terms of H5, but I do remember it being one storm and not till almost mid February. 97/98 is still the best match in that there was no arctic air in North America and was a strong El nino.

It's following the same story so far, first inch WAS that storm, and it was the only one the entire season.

Lol that was yet another disaster winter of the 70 through 1999 period. However you are correct in even though we only had one storm the entire season, it was a real good one and would take.

I do not have the historical MJO plots, however 97/98 had repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but rain to show for it. The fact that the storm tracks were of the benchmark variety leads me to believe that there was a trough in the east, therefore "favorable" MJO phases. Again, the problem with that year were the temps in North America which were too warm even for the northwest side of the storms. At least this year there are signs we are not heading down that road. We shall see but hopefully we get more of a 82/83 or 15/16 result.

Ensembles look ok over the course of the period. Definitely does not LOOK like what 97/98 delivered (which is of course the worst case scenario).

97/98 was always a risk in a strong El nino however I agree, a few weeks to early to throw in the towel.