EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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The water should pile up in the Western Indian Ocean too if we're talking circulation which would enhance phases 1 and 2 of the mjo which are colder for us.
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The linking of the southeast ridge has happened in the past per Don's stats I posted above. We had a trough to our East where the confluence was pushing down on the Southeast ridge and linking to the trough to the west of the southeast ridge which stopped it from linking.
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Would be funny if we had a repeat of the Southern snow as well LOL. Rain verbatim for now.
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In all fairness Don did pull stats which showed that although the frequency has increased, it has happened in the past.
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Agreed it just throws me off as I saw a post saying what happened to what the ensembles were showing with the large snowfall amounts. Really it's not far off so it wasn't a failure. -
At least they look pretty good for Central Park they had 11.5 on the mean in Central Park is at 4.1. let's see if they get close.
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Might beat last blocking episode
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The low pressure itself is actually a bit north it's just that the precept shield is a bit more condensed. Just noise.
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Yeah if we do not just focus on snowfall average which was just 5 years and 30 years, then we see some positives just like we had a great month in 2022 and a great March in 2019. Also this year when looking back is going to look like another below average snowfall season, yeah we're going to have three below average temperature months as well as a lot of days of snow coverage. This winter will definitely be underrated.
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What's crazy is Central Park might actually get close to the crazy high snow mean of 11.5 in on the ensembles that we we're all shocked about. It is already at 4.1 and will likely get a few more inches this week. If they reach 8 then the ensemble mean was not that off base.
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Yeah this is why I don't think the issue is the water temperatures. The heat island effect does come into play for the city itself. I know I sound like a broken record at this point but Cold and dry warm and wet was the theme for 30 years from 1970 to 1999. This is why I'm tracking the average snowfall for that period Against the 2018 till now. As you stated earlier mother nature tends to repeat herself.
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Ocean City Maryland is right on the water and they're doing great since 2018 and they're literally on the beach LOL.
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It's going to be interesting to see how the next few years shake out. We thought the coastal hugger was extinct from 2000 through 2016. Suddenly one appeared March of 2017 and now we're getting a lot of coastal huggers so they became un extinct. We are getting clippers this year the problem is they've been moisture-starved. If your nephew hasn't already started your nephew should investigate 1955 through 1969 and see if we had clippers during that period. It could be cyclical as well.
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There is no doubt we're heading into a period where there will be a trough in the east. The overnight ensemble runs had the trough too far East similar to the last blocking episode in January. Hoping the ensembles revert back to the look the previous few days we shall see.
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Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.
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Still seeing them level off is a good sign. It was always a question of when they would start to cool. We may be in a level off period for a few years beforehand though.
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The euro for 6z looks good for one to three inches for Central Park. Likely another coating to 3 inched storm. Theme of the season.
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Looks like the waters around Indonesia and Australia have leveled off. Could be the start of the cooling trend in those Waters which would help with the mjo.
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Or 1970 through 1999 LOL.
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If Central Park somehow goes the rest of the winter without accumulating snow, the average snowfall for the time period of 2018/19 through this year would be 14.52857. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was 21.90667. a 7.378095 difference.
